Vol 27 – Do You Hear the Retail Sing?
- Ann Yu
- 6 minutes ago
- 6 min read
May 31, 2025
🎉 Breaking News! We’ve Gone Audio! 🎙️
That’s right - we’ve officially launched our FIRST podcast! It's in Mandarin, but fear not, we’re working on other languages soon!
Someone asked me, "Why did you do this?" Honestly, I just did it "for fun!" 🤩 After all, it’s never too late to pick up a new skill!
📢 Join the conversation - Follow us on Spotify, Facebook & Instagram for more insights and maybe even a few surprises! ✨
What’s in the newsletter this week?
1️⃣ Retail vs. Professional: Who’s on the Chopping Block? Data showed that, while professional fund managers were busy scratching their heads, retail investors orchestrated a jaw-dropping V-shaped rebound for the S&P 500 in April! Do you hear the people sing? "UNITED, WE PROFIT!" 🎤 2️⃣ Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Trades? With all the chaos Trump is whipping up, one thing seems certain: de-dollarization! However, trying to profit from a long-term trend with short-term trades is nothing short of playing with fire! 🔥
3️⃣ The Power of Subtle Hints - How Did Japan’s Long-Term Bond Yields Drop? Japan’s long-term bond yields took a sharp dive for a while, catching many by surprise. Yet, there was no grand policy overhaul - just a clever and subtle "hint" by the government was all it took to tilt the market, for now. 🎩
Category | Contents for this week |
|---|---|
1) Chart of the Week | |
2) Market Buzz | |
2) Fun Facts |
Key things to watch for the upcoming week:
China/HK - Earnings | Jun 3 (Tue) - Nio (NIO) |
US - Earnings | Jun 3 (Tue) - CrowdStrike (CRWD) Jun 5 (Thu) - Broadcom (AVGO) |
US - Eco Data | Jun 2 (Mon) - US May Manufacturing PMI Jun 5 (Thu) - US April Trade Balance Jun 6 (Fri) - US May Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate |
Other Major Events | Jun 4 (Wed) - Bank of Canada Rate Decision Jun 5 (Thu) - ECB Rates Meeting |
Chart of the Week – Do You Hear the Retail Sing?
🥁🥁🥁
Do you hear the retail sing?
Singing a song of happy men?
It is the music of a people
Who will not be chives again
🎵🎵🎵
The above chart told an intriguing story - retail investor purchases (the red bars) rose significantly just as the S&P 500 index (the yellow line) took a plunge in early April.
Meanwhile, the so-called “smart money” - professional institutional investors and fund managers - has been trimming exposure amid tariff-driven volatility.
"(The professionals) are the ones who actually have to catch up right now,” noted a strategist from RBC.
How did the retail win this time?
1️⃣ Knowledge is Power - Thanks to the financial knowledge that is spreading faster than ever, "buy-the-dip" and "stay invested" have become part of the retail investing culture.
2️⃣Holding Power is Everything - Retail investors aren’t pressured to perform monthly (or even daily!) like fund managers, giving them the patience to ride out market swings.
Retail have won Round One in the tariff showdown, but what's coming next might be even trickier. Will retail keep its winning streak, or will the pros have the last laugh? The game is far from over! One thing's for sure - there is a new dynamic about to start when tomorrow comes!
For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations.
Market Buzz – Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Trades
De-Dollarization: The global money shuffle This week, I attended the China Global Wealth Summit hosted by Asian Private Banker. One comment from a CICC speaker stuck with me: 📢 Everyone agrees De-Dollarization is happening as Trump's policies shake global confidence in the U.S. financial system.
💡 But if you try to trade on it too soon, you might regret it. Fund managers who jump ship on U.S. assets too fast could be taking on the biggest risk, especially when they’re constantly measured against broad market performance (think about the tough retail competitors!).
What happens when USD loses its throne?
To gradually position for a fading USD dominance, investors are scrambling for alternatives:
🏆 Gold & Bitcoin: The classic "store-of-value" picks, for those who trust gold’s shine or Bitcoin's scarcity.
🌍 Global Diversification: Some investors are turning to Europe, China, India, or LatAm.
💰 Strong Companies: Some prefer sticking with solid businesses, betting they’ll rebound as soon as macro worries fade.
🎭 Geopolitical Maneuvers: Some brave souls are keeping positions flexible and navigating global tensions to scoop up undervalued assets.
The Golden Rule? Mind the cost level of your holdings!
✅ Don’t chase hype
✅ Don’t panic-sell. The best way to avoid knee-jerk reactions is to know your investments inside and out. When market gets rough, confidence will help you stay the course.
Is this easier said than done? Of course! And that’s why Jadewell Family Office is here - to be the rational voice for you when emotions run high.
💬 Talk to us today and let us help you stay focused in a chaotic market! 🚀
For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations.
Fun Facts – The Power of Subtle Hints - The Japanese Style
Textbooks tell us that central banks rely on three classic tools to influence the market:
Open market operations
Reserve requirements
Policy rates
But in today's world, central banks have gone beyond the textbook - from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “talking the future (aka blowing water)” strategy to Japan’s latest "subtle hints".
The Hidden Risks
Japan’s government bonds are famous for their low volatility - mainly because the Bank of Japan (BOJ) owns more than half of them in a long-standing effort to support government spending and drag the country out of the “Lost Decades.”
However, with Japan finally exiting deflation, fiscal expansion is no longer the priority. BOJ has been trimming its debt purchases, but here’s the problem: no one else is stepping in to fill the gap.
Cue the drama - on May 20, a sale of 20-year Japanese government bonds went down in flames, marking the weakest demand in over a decade and sent the bond yield surging.
Confidence in long-term debt was already shaky, thanks to Trump’s tariff bombshell since early-April, but Japan’s bond market took the hit hardest among major markets.
The Power of Subtle Hints!
So, what did Japan do? Something unexpected!
Instead of an aggressive intervention, the Ministry of Finance pulled off a “soft power” maneuver - sending out a questionnaire to market participants (primary dealers, bond buyers) asking what they thought would be a "reasonable issuance amount" for super-long bonds.
The result? A simple questionnaire triggered speculation that Japan might reduce the issuance of long-maturity debt to balance supply and demand - and the yield dropped.
Now that’s textbook creativity - except, well, no textbook ever suggested sending out a questionnaire to fix a bond market crisis. 🧐📜 Will this "subtle magic" trick keep the spell alive, or is it just a temporary illusion? 🎩✨
For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations.
About Jadewell Family Office
Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment.
Ann Yu
Co-Founder and CEO
Jadewell Family Office
FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS
This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only.
This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions.
Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice.
All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted.
It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
Comments