Vol 30 - Where Have All the Flowers Gone?
- Ann Yu
- Jun 21
- 7 min read
June 21, 2025
Where have all the young men gone?
They're all in uniform
Where have all the soldiers gone?
Gone to graveyards every one
Just last month, a family office exec joked, “What’s so scary about a U.S. recession? Just start a war and it’ll fix everything!” 💣
He was referring to Military Industrialism, where defense spending fuels the economy - and the U.S. knows that playbook well.
Now, war’s actually broken out. While the U.S. didn’t strike first, its role is undeniably pivotal.
This week, we sifted through major reports to break down the battlefield shifts, oil price risks, and what it all means for the markets. 📊🔥
War Returns to the Middle East - What's the Endgame?
1) What role does US play in this conflict?
The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating rapidly, and the White House has announced it will decide within two weeks whether to join in a potential strike against Iran.
Why is America’s involvement drawing so much global attention?
💥 Relentless Israeli Airstrikes Target Iran's Nuclear Heart 💥
Israel has been conducting intensive bombing campaigns for days, aiming squarely at Iran’s elusive nuclear weapons program. Iran’s air defense system is reportedly on the verge of collapse, leaving its skies virtually unprotected - but the hardest obstacle lies ahead:
Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility, Fordow, is buried 90 meters deep inside a mountain. Only the U.S. military possesses the firepower that might destroy it - namely, the legendary GBU-57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (with only about 20 in existence), and the B-2 stealth bombers (just 21 in total) capable of delivering them. These weapons are designed to drill through rock and reinforced concrete, detonating at 60 meters underground.
Some experts estimate that within a matter of weeks, Iran could convert its current uranium stockpile at Fordow into 233 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium - enough to build up to 9 nuclear warheads.
Unless Fordow is destroyed, analysts believe Israel’s current airstrikes may, at best, only delay Iran’s nuclear program by a year or two - leaving Tehran with a clear path to potentially building its first nuclear weapon in the near future.
🧨 Why Not Bomb Fordow? Four Big Reasons the U.S. Is Stuck in a Tight Spot 🧨
Even with Iran’s skies laid bare and its air defenses in ruins, Trump - at least in theory - could seize this golden opportunity to bomb the Fordow facility and wipe out Iran’s nuclear program in a matter of hours.
But even someone as famously bold as Trump has serious reasons to hesitate:
☢️ A direct strike on Fordow risks unleashing uncontrollable nuclear fallout from deep underground.
🪖 U.S. military presence across the Middle East is thin, making it hard to secure and control the aftermath of an airstrike.
🗣️ The ghosts of the Iraq War still haunt Washington, and anti-war sentiment in the U.S. remains strong.
🌋 Iran refuses to talk without a ceasefire - back them into a corner, and the entire region could spiral into chaos
✈️Where Is America's “Real” Battlefield? ✈️
In a surprise move, Trump left the G7 summit a day early to address the unfolding Middle East crisis, skipping a scheduled meeting with the Ukrainian president.
That reshuffle didn’t go unnoticed. It raises the question: Has the grinding, slow-burn war in Ukraine lost its strategic sparkle in Trump’s eyes? Could the turbulent, fast-moving front in the Middle East now be the stage where he sees America flexing its power and reclaiming its swagger on the global stage? 🌍⚔️
2) How might this war eventually conclude?
According to a Bloomberg opinion columnist, the current turmoil in the Middle East could play out in three potential scenarios:
🟥 Scenario 1: War Ignites - The U.S. Strikes Fordow, Oil Prices Go Vertical
Trump runs out of patience waiting for Iran to come to the table - so he gives the green light.
The U.S. launches an airstrike on the fortified Fordow nuclear facility, triggering full-blown confrontation. Iran retaliates swiftly, lashing out at American allies and assets across the region.
The columnist speculates that while the U.S. would likely come out on top militarily, the real wildcard is how quickly Iran throws in the towel and agrees to a ceasefire.
📈 In the worst-case scenario? Iran moves to block the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Oil prices could rocket past $130 a barrel, inflation would spike globally, and hopes for any Federal Reserve rate cuts would vanish overnight.
🟩 Scenario 2: No Bombs, Just Pressure - Pushing Iran to the Table
Instead of launching missiles, the U.S. plays the long game - wielding diplomacy, economic sanctions, and intelligence ops to pile on unprecedented pressure. Iran, cornered but not bombed, agrees to freeze its nuclear program. Israel claims “mission accomplished,” and tensions cool rapidly. 🕊️
Sounds like the dream ending, right? If divine intervention kicks in, oil could tumble back to $65 a barrel, and the world’s biggest worry might once again be an oversupply of oil - a problem we now realize is actually a luxury.
🤔 But don’t hold your breath. Experts familiar with Iran’s negotiating playbook say this level of surrender isn’t exactly Tehran’s style. Peaceful? Maybe. Easy? Definitely not.
🟦 Scenario 3: Stalemate - Neither Side Wins, No One Walks Away
Neither Israel nor Iran backs down, but out of respect for U.S. pressure, both sides keep the conflict from spiraling. Missiles still fly - but carefully avoid each other’s critical energy infrastructure.
🥀 For Iran, it’s a face-saving way to de-escalate. For Israel, without full U.S. backing, a decisive strike becomes unrealistic.
In this drawn-out, muddy middle ground, oil prices could hover around $70 a barrel - much like the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war: initial panic, followed by a slow fade into global indifference.
3) And how will the stock market respond?
We mentioned "Military Industrialism" at the beginning of the newsletter. It isn't just a theory. It is a time-tested playbook. The classic example? World War II (1939–1945).
While Europe was engulfed in flames, the U.S. - safely across the Atlantic - revved up its war machine and unleashed massive government spending. The result? A miraculous escape from the Great Depression!
Unemployment plummeted from 25% to under 2%, women and minorities surged into the workforce, GDP exploded, and America dethroned Britain to become the new global superpower. 👑
But the sequel - Vietnam War (1955–1975) - wasn’t nearly as glamorous.
Sure, the early days of the war gave the economy a temporary jolt. But trying to fund both a war abroad and sweeping social programs at home? That meant printing money. Lots of it.
Inflation soared. Then came the 1973 oil crisis, and suddenly the U.S. was stuck in the dreaded trap of stagflation: sky-high prices, stagnant growth. 😓
It wasn’t until 1979 that Fed Chair Paul Volcker dropped the hammer - the infamous “Volcker Shock.” Interest rates shot past 20%, and only after a painful economic purge did inflation finally retreat. 💣📉
Fast-forward to a moment still fresh in our memory: the Russia–Ukraine war.
The war started on February 24, 2022, and markets braced for impact. But surprise - the S&P 500 dipped less than 3%, bottomed out by early March, and then staged a fierce rebound.
The real correction didn’t come until the second half of 2022, when U.S. inflation refused to cool and the Fed turned full hawk mode. By October, the market finally hit its true low.
And then? November 30, 2022 - enter ChatGPT. The AI boom was born, and U.S. equities haven’t looked back since. 🧠🚀
The war still rages on, but as far as Wall Street’s concerned? It’s already moved on.
What about this new war in the Middle East?
Will it trigger systemic risk for U.S. markets, or just another round of inflation jitters? And hey, could there be another “ChatGPT moment” waiting in the wings to rescue weary investors?
Here’s what we’ll be watching closely:
📌 How will Trump play his strategic cards?
📌 Can Micron’s earnings next Wednesday keep the AI dream alive?
📌 And don’t forget to follow Jadewell Family Office on Facebook and IG - we’ll be sharing our latest insights in real time.
Wondering how to navigate your portfolio through all this macro volatility? Let’s talk. Reach out today and let’s find the strategy that fits you best. 💼📈
To watch for the coming week:
US - Economic Date | Jun 23 (Mon) - US Manufacturing and Servicing PMI Jun 24 (Tue) - Fed Chair Powell Speech Jun 26 (Thu) - US 1Q GDP Jun 27 (Fri) - US Core PCE Index |
US - Earnings | Jun 25 (Wed) - Micron (MU) Jun 27 (Fri) - Nike (NKE) |
For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations.
About Jadewell Family Office
Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment.
Ann Yu
Co-Founder and CEO
Jadewell Family Office
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