May 18, 2025 Another week, another surprise - US and China shook hands (for now) faster than anyone expected, and the S&P 500 index has nearly clawed back all its YTD losses. Hats off to retail investors , who have stayed strong amid tariff noise, proving once again that Buffett’s wisdom holds true: "Be greedy when others (i.e., the hedge fund managers) are fearful." But is this really a return to normal? Or are we just setting the stage for the next round of surprises? Amid the market buzz, I had an uplifting encounter with a fellow mum-trepreneur this week. We’ve both had our days in the corporate world, yet today, we see the 3pm school pick-up  as crucial as any other commitment. Of course, the game doesn’t stop there - that's why we’ve both chosen to build our own businesses , ensuring our skills stay sharp and future-proof, even if it sometimes feels like we’re CEO-ing by day and food-prepping by night (if not all the time!). And here's the best part - she’s a seasoned private wealth lawyer , specializing in family succession planning - the missing piece we’ve long searched for to complete our family office service offering . If legacy planning is something you’d like to discuss about, let’s connect! ☕ What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ Generational Face-Off: Gen X in US vs. Gen Z in China . Two articles got my attention this week: The Economist declared Gen X (born 1965-1980) in the US as "The Real Losers"  (ouch!), while Bloomberg explored how China's Gen Z (born 1997-2012) is reshaping the stock market with their emotional consumption . Well, I'm neither of these 2 generations. But w hat can we learn from their vastly different approaches to life and money? 🤔 2️⃣ Decoding the 13F: What Are the Big Players Up To? Institutional investors have just disclosed their Q1 2025 holdings , and we’ve got the scoop on a few high-profile moves that caught our attention. Who’s buying? Who’s selling? 🔍 3️⃣ Once Upon a Time, Americans Weren’t Allowed to Hold Gold?!  Gold has been a hot topic lately. But did you know that not too long ago, regular investors in the US were banned  from owning gold? 😲💰 Category Contents for this week 1) Generations of the Week Gen X in US vs. Gen Z in China 2) Market Buzz Decoding the 13F 3) Fun Facts Once Upon a Time, Americans Weren’t Allowed to Hold Gold?!   Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings May 21 (Wed) - Baidu (BIDU), Xpeng (XPEV) May 22 (Thu) - Lenovo (0992 HK), PDD (PDD) China - Eco Data May 19 (Mon) - China Industrial Production, Retail Sales US - Earnings May 20 (Tue) - Home Depot (HD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) US - Eco Data May 22 (Thu) - US Manufacturing and Services PMI Other Major Events May 20 (Tue) - Reserve Bank of Australia Rates Decision Generations of the Week – Gen X in US vs. Gen Z in China Source: Why Gen X is the real loser generation Every generation thinks they’re special - the ones before us? Too stubborn . The ones after us? Too soft . And naturally, we  are the only ones truly holding civilization together , carrying the weight of humanity on our shoulders. But let’s be honest - that’s probably not true. We all struggle. Or do we? Why Gen X (in US) is the "Real Loser Generation"? According to The Economist’s brutally honest calculations, the real winners of the "Most Unlucky Generation" contest are… Gen X (born 1965–1980). Here’s why their timing was so wrong: 😞 Bad Mood – A recent 30-country poll found that 31% of Gen Xers  report feeling "not happy" or "not happy at all" —the highest unhappiness rate  across all generations. 💼 Bad Career Timing  – Normally, salaries soar  when people hit their 30s and 40s , moving into managerial roles. But Gen X? They hit this stage right when the global financial crisis tanked the job market . 📉 Bad Investment Timing  – Boomers watched their portfolios skyrocket in the 1980s. Millennials enjoyed strong market gains too. But Gen X? Their prime investing years landed right between the dot-com crash and the 2008 meltdown - a financial desert with no oasis. ⏳ Bad Retirement   – To top it off, Gen X might be the first generation to suffer from collapsing pension systems . America’s Social Security fund could run dry by 2033, exactly when they start retiring. Expect benefits to drop by 20–25% , unless Congress pulls off a miracle (don’t hold your breath). Gen X in the US essentially lived through an extended economic prank, except nobody’s laughing... Source: The Economist Meanwhile, in China… For years, generational identities in China weren’t as sharply defined as in the US - until Gen Z (born 1997–2012) crashed onto the scene  and made their presence LOUD AND CLEAR , reshaping the economy through emotional consumption - aka, buying with their hearts, not their wallets. If Gen X in the US had the worst timing imaginable, China’s Gen Z is out here YOLO-ing their way into financial optimism, even helping offset the damage of tariffs  with their fearless spending, according to Bloomberg. Gen Z in China equals to a 250-million-strong army of shoppers . They’ll pinch pennies  over bubble tea prices but splurge fearlessly  on their "true passions" - celebrity merch, trendy jewelry, toys - you know, all the things their parents roll their eyes at and call frivolous . But here’s the twist: investors and stock markets aren’t rolling their eyes - they’re cashing in! Share prices of Gen Z-favorite brands , such as Pop Mart International (toys) , Laopu Gold (jewelry) and Mixue Group (drinks) have been skyrocketing , proving that this generation isn’t just consuming, they’re driving the economy. Tariff concerns? What tariff concerns? Each generation faces its own trials. Gen X in the US weathered storms they never saw coming, while Gen Z in China is trying to prove that confidence (and a shopping spree) can shape the future. The real question isn’t who suffered more , but how each group adapts and reshapes the world in ways no one saw coming. For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – Decoding the 13F Every quarter, big-money funds managing over $100M must disclose their portfolios via SEC’s Form 13F - and the latest filings for the first quarter of 2025 are in! Top 5 Holdings as of end-March 2025: The nine stocks below represent nearly half of the top holdings disclosed: 🤖 AI tech stack : META, NVDA, AMD, TSM. ☁️ Hyperscalers : AMZN, GOOG, MSFT. 💳 Payments : MELI, V. Top 5 Buys in 1Q 2025: 📦 Global commerce : BABA, MELI, PDD. 🤖 AI tech stack : META, NVDA, TSM. 💻 Enterprise software : APP, INTU. ☁️ Hyperscalers : CRWV, MSFT. 🌍 Marketplaces : UBER, ABNB. Meta is back in the spotlight - After vanishing from last quarter’s top buys, it’s making a triumphant return, landing in the top five for funds like Coatue  and Viking . The hype? DeepSeek’s AI inference efficiency breakthrough  suggests Meta’s infrastructure bets could seriously boost margins over time. Uber’s on the move - The ride-hailing giant was another hot pick, now Pershing Square’s biggest holding  at 18% . Investment rationale might include surging engagement, widening margins, and a promising Waymo partnership. That’s the big picture - but zooming in on top fund managers, the sentiment looked noticeably more bearish. Source: appeconomyinsights.com Berkshire Hathaway: Selling Financials: Berkshire dumped Citigroup (C) and Nubank (NU)  while trimming stakes in Capital One (COF) and Bank of America (BAC) . But they left Apple (AAPL) alone this quarter. Stockpiling Cash: The cash reserves continue to swell - now nearing $350 billion Buying Consumer & Energy: Berkshire increased exposure on Constellation Brands (STZ),  broadcasting company Sirius XM (SIRI) , and energy giant Occidental Petroleum (OXY) . The Mystery Stock: Berkshire requested confidentiality treatment  for one new position that's worth around $2 billion - often a sign they’re quietly accumulating shares. Barron's speculates it could be in the Commercial and Industrial sector . Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/who-is-michael-burry Scion Asset Management - The "Big Short" movie guy Michael Burry So Bearish: Scion Asset Management went full-on liquidation mode , dumping nearly its entire listed equity portfolio in 1Q and loaded up on bearish put options , targeting stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and several Chinese tech firms. The Lone Survivor: Amid the liquidation, Estee Lauder (EL)  remains the last stock standing in the portfolio. Source: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-au/opto/why-is-david-tepper-so-big-on-china Appaloosa Management - David Tepper Scaling Back on China: David Tepper, who once championed the "buy everything Chinese"  mantra last fall, is now dialing it back. Appaloosa trimmed its Alibaba (BABA) stake by 20%, though BABA is still the largest single stock holding in his portfolio. Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-is-building-an-algorithmic-model-of-its-founders-brain-1482423694 Bridgewater - Ray Dalio and the world's largest hedge fund Big Bets on China: Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), and Pinduoduo (PDD) emerged as top buys of the fund. Dialing Down US Tech: Bridgewater trimmed its positions  in AI-focused tech giants like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Applovin (APP) . Ramping Up on Gold: Bridgewater significantly increased its exposure to the Gold ETF (GLD) , citing gold’s low correlation with traditional assets, unique properties, and strong portfolio diversification benefits. 🚨 Final reminder:  These position disclosures only reflect Q1 2025 - and with April’s market mood swings, there’s a good chance these holdings have already been flipped or reshuffled. But hey, it’s all just for reference anyway. Who says these big-shot fund managers have some secret wisdom that retail investors don’t? 😆 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Facts  – Once Upon a Time, Americans Weren't Allowed to Hold Gold?! Source: https://goldbroker.com/news/confiscation-gold-1933-behind-scenes-dispossession-2839 Yep! Once upon a time, Americans couldn’t legally hoard gold like modern-day treasure hunters. In 1933 , President Franklin D. Roosevelt  issued Executive Order 6102 , which banned private ownership of gold coins, bullion, and certificates . The government required citizens to turn in their gold  in exchange for paper currency at a fixed rate of $20.67 per troy ounce - only to raise the price to $35 shortly after , effectively devaluing the dollar. The reasoning? The U.S. was on the gold standard , and officials believed hoarding gold was stalling economic recovery  during the Great Depression. The ban lasted for over 40 years, until President Gerald Ford  finally lifted restrictions in 1974 , making private gold ownership legal again. Today, gold remains a prized asset, not just for its shine, but for its role as a storage of value. After all, you can wear gold all over yourself, but you can't really do that with US dollar bills!? For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

2025年5月18日 這世界的變化，真是讓人措手不及! 眨個眼的功夫，美國和中國就把關稅又調低了，美股標普五百指數幾乎收復今年以來的失地，許多評論盛讚在四月初 築起血肉長城瘋狂買進的美股散戶 ，漂亮地打敗了做空市場的對沖基金大頭們。也再次證明了巴菲特的經典智慧: 「別人恐懼時我貪婪」 ，才是常勝之道! 但是這真的代表一切都回復正常了嗎? 抑或只是 另一場暴風雨來臨前的寧靜 呢? 除了市場的大起大落以外，本周我有一個更有意思的收穫，就是認識了另一位 媽媽創業家 (mum-trepreneur) 。她和我一樣，都曾經花了大把時間在各自的事業上搏殺。但現在的我們，則把 下午三點鐘去接孩子放學 這件事，視為最重要的任務 。 當然啦，我們知道孩子不會永遠需要我們，也不想道德綁架式的自我犧牲 - 所以我們都選擇了 創業 ，確保自己的 寶刀不要變老 ，在照顧家庭的同時，也能維持 一線水平的專業競爭力 。 更棒的是，她還是一位 經驗豐富的私人財富律師 ，專長 家族財富傳承規劃 ! 這正是我們一直在尋找的一塊拼圖，可以與我的投資經驗相輔相成 ，進一步完善瑜新的「全面」家族財富管理服務 。如果您也正想找人聊聊與傳承相關的規劃，就隨時聯絡我們吧!☕ 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 世代對決: 美國的X世代 vs. 中國的Z世代 🤜🤛 本周有兩篇文章吸引了我的注意：《經濟學人》宣布 美國的X世代(1965-1980年出生) 是終極魯蛇，而《彭博》則探討 中國的Z世代(1997-2012年出生) 的「情緒消費」，如何以一己之力重塑股市。正好夾在這兩個世代中間的我，能從他們對生活和金錢 截然的不同態度 ，得出什麼結論呢？🤔 2️⃣ 解碼13F: 基金大頭們都在幹嘛? 美國機構投資者剛剛公布了2025年第一季的持股情況， 我們會發現什麼有趣的變化和趨勢呢?🔍 3️⃣ 很久很久以前，美國人竟然不可以買黃金?! 今年人人都在講黃金、炒黃金， 但您知道嗎？歷史上曾經有一段時間，美國的一般投資者是被 禁止持有或買賣黃金的!? 😲💰 目錄 本周內容 1) 世代對決 美國的X世代 vs. 中國的Z世代 2) 市場熱話 解碼13F: 基金大頭們都在幹嘛? 3) 您知道嗎? 很久很久以前，美國人竟然不可以買黃金?!   未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 5月21日(周三) - 百度 (BIDU), 小鵬 (XPEV) 5月22日(周四) - 聯想 (0992 HK), 拼多多 (PDD) 中國 - 經濟數據 5月19日(周一) - 中國工業生產、零售銷售 美國 - 業績 5月20日(周二) - Home Depot (HD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW) 美國 - 經濟數據 5月22日(周四) - 美國製造業與服務業PMI 其他大事 5月20日(周二) - 澳洲央行議息會議 世代對決 – 美國的X世代 vs. 中國的Z世代 Source: Why Gen X is the real loser generation 一般來說，15年為一個世代。 每個世代都覺得自己是最特別的: 比我們老的上一代? 太固執了食古不化；比我們年輕的下一代? 太柔弱了不長見識。只有我們自己這一代，才是含辛茹苦撐起人類文明的中流砥柱! 雖然每個世代心底都是偷偷這麼想的，但是攤開了說，就可以很明確地發現邏輯上的謬誤。 唉，別爭了吧，大家都不容易啊...... 還是說，真的有某個世代「特別地」不容易? 為什麼美國的X世代才是真正的終極魯蛇(The Real Loser)? 《經濟學人》 早前發表了一篇文章，根據他們殘酷但寫實的計算， 美國的X世代(1965-1980年出生) ，的確是特別的不容易。 他們有多慘呢? 我們來看看: 😞 心情差 – 最近一項涵蓋 30個國家的調查 顯示，有 31%的X世代受訪者 表示自己「不快樂」或「完全不快樂」- 是所有世代中 憂鬱指數最高的 。 💼 事業差  – 在正常情況下，一般人的薪資，通常會在 30-40歲 的階段，隨著晉升企業中高層而快速飆漲。但X世代呢? 他們剛要步入中高層階段的時候，不巧就撞上了 2008年金融海嘯 ，全球經濟衰退，也沒什麼加薪的空間。 📉 投資差  – 在X世代之前的 嬰兒潮世代 ，如果有做股票投資的話，在1980年代應該賺得不少。而在X世代之後的 千禧世代 ，受惠於過去幾年的美股大牛，投資帶來的收益也不無小補。只有可憐的 X世代 ，他們的投資高峰期，正正是2000年網路泡沫破裂和2008年金融海嘯之間，可以說是 美股歷史中的一段沙漠期。 ⏳ 退休差   – 日子還沒過完呢，還有更慘的未來等著X世代。據估計， 美國的社保基金 將在2033年左右耗盡，正巧是X世代開始退休的年份，退休相關的福利 預計將縮減20-25% ，除非美國國會能在那之前變出什麼魔術，但可能性不高就是了。 簡單來說，美國的X世代就像是被老天開了一場漫長的經濟玩笑 - 天將降大任於斯世代也，必先苦其心志、勞其筋骨? Source: The Economist 在中國的情況則是… 在中國，各個世代的獨特性似乎長期以來都被刻意地壓抑，直到 Z世代(1997-2012年出生) 的橫空出世，以極其高調的方式大聲宣告自己的存在，並以 「情緒驅動式消費」 強勢重塑整個經濟體對待他們的方式! 當美國的X世代還在苦哈哈捱著過日子的時候，中國的Z世代正肆意揮灑 「YOLO式金融樂觀主義」 。YOLO (You Only Live Once) 不是什麼新鮮的詞語，但真正身體力行以大撒錢方式來實踐的，還得是Z世代。在 《彭博》 報導的眼中， 如此強勁的買盤 ，甚至 足夠抵銷中美關稅 帶來的憂慮。 這裡的中國Z世代，指的是 2億5千萬人的消費大軍 。雖然他們在一些日常消費上斤斤計較(例如只喝便宜的奶茶)，但當某件事物觸動他們心弦的時候 - 例如 偶像周邊商品、潮流黃金首飾、可以提供情緒價值的玩具 - 他們的衝動型消費是真的可以「掏心掏肺」的! 當然，他們買的東西，通常他們的父母都是「看不上眼」的。但您別管，父母看不上眼沒關係， 股市看得上眼就行! 看看最受Z世代歡迎的品牌 - 泡泡瑪特(玩具)、老鋪黃金(珠寶)和蜜雪冰城(茶飲) ，哪個股價不是飛了上天。證明逐漸茁壯的Z世代不僅是單純的消費者，更是影響力巨大的市場驅動力。 管他關不關稅，該買的 Labubu還是得買! 總結: 不用比慘，每個世代都有自己的挑戰。 美國的X世代 與老天開的玩笑硬槓，連退休金在哪裡都不確定； 中國的Z世代 則試圖證明情緒消費的重要 - 若我乾癟的荷包能滋潤我乾涸的心靈，那也值得! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 解碼13F，基金大頭們都在幹嘛? 每個季度， 管理資產超過1億美元的大型基金 都必須向美國證交會提交 13F表格 ，披露最新持倉，而最新資訊幾天前已經新鮮出爐啦! 2025年第一季: 前五大持倉 據不完全統計，以下九支股票加總，應該佔了所有大型基金總持倉的接近一半: 🤖 AI 科技 : META, NVDA, AMD, TSM. ☁️ 雲端霸主 : AMZN, GOOG, MSFT. 💳 支付巨頭 : MELI, V. 2025年第一季: 前五大買入股票 📦 全球電商 : BABA, MELI, PDD. 🤖 AI 科技 : META, NVDA, TSM. 💻 企業軟體 : APP, INTU. ☁️ 雲端霸主 : CRWV, MSFT. 🌍 市場平台 : UBER, ABNB. Meta 重返榮耀 - 之前一季Meta被踢出了熱門股票之列，但是這次終於 強勢回歸 ，成為幾個著名基金(例如 Coatue, Viking)等的前五大持股。據推測，Meta重新獲得青睞的原因，還得多謝 中國的DeepSeek 。DeepSeek的AI推理能力，在今年一月引爆投資者熱情後，也推高了市場對Meta在未來AI應用上的利潤預期。 Uber 加速前進中 - Uber也是基金大老們近期的愛股。Uber 現在是阿克曼掌舵的 Pershing Square 基金中最大持股，佔比高達18%。大老們看好Uber的 用戶互動增長、利潤率擴張，以及與谷歌Waymo潛在合作 將帶來的爆發性增長。 雖然整體來看，氣氛仍然相當正面， 但如果我們仔細觀察頂級基金經理的操作，悲觀情緒似乎正悄悄開始蔓延... Source: https://www.appeconomyinsights.com/ 巴菲特與波克夏: 減倉金融股: 波克夏在第一季清倉了 Citigroup (C) 還有巴西的 Nubank (NU) ，也減持了美國的 Capital One (COF) 及 Bank of America (BAC) 。但是這一季沒有繼續賣 Apple (AAPL) 了。 現金儲備水漲船高: 波克夏目前的現金儲備，已經逼近 3500億美元 了。如果與世界各國的國家外匯儲備相比較，波克夏的現金水位已經與新加坡的外匯儲備(約3630億美元)相去不遠囉! 加碼消費和能源股: 除了不停減倉以提高現金儲備以外，波克夏還是有出手買了點股票的。第一季的加倉主要放在飲料公司 Constellation Brands (STZ) 、廣播媒體 Sirius XM (SIRI) ，還有石油股 Occidental Petroleum (OXY) 。 神秘股票: 值得留意的是，波克夏向證交會申請了一項 保密持倉 ! 巴菲特以前也曾經用過類似的手法，讓波克夏在慢慢對一支新股票建立倉位的時候，可以祕密進行。根據金融雜誌 Barron's 推測，這個新的股票倉位 約20億美元 ，可能屬於 商業及工業板塊 (Commercial and Industrial Sector) 。 Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/who-is-michael-burry Scion 資產管理 - 電影 《大賣空》的傳奇操盤手 Michael Burry 超級悲觀: Scion資產管理在第一季表現地 超級悲觀 ，幾乎把所有持倉的上市公司股票都賣光了，還大舉增加對於Nvidia(NVDA)及多家中國科技公司的 看空期權 (Put) 。 倖存者是: 而他唯一剩下來的股票，竟是化妝品集團 Estee Lauder (EL) - 是因為賣不掉還是他相信口紅經濟學? 我們就不得而知啦。 Source: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-au/opto/why-is-david-tepper-so-big-on-china Appaloosa 資產管理 - 華爾街抄底王 David Tepper 縮減中國投資: 去年秋天，有華爾街抄底王之稱的David Tepper曾呼籲大家「快一起來暴買中國吧！」 。打架的時候叫上你，落跑的時候忘了你， 對於這些對沖基金巨頭來說根本是家常便飯。好險他得根據美國證交會要求公布持倉，我們才知道原來帶頭大哥已經靜悄悄地， 把自己的阿里巴巴持倉大減了20% 。不過阿里巴巴仍然是他手上組合中，最大的單一持股。 Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-is-building-an-algorithmic-model-of-its-founders-brain-1482423694 橋水基金 - 由達理奧掌舵的全球最大對沖基金 大舉押注中國: 橋水基金在第一季大舉買入 阿里巴巴(BABA)、百度(BIDU)、拼多多(PDD) 等股票。 減持美國科技股: 另外一邊，橋水則繼續縮減美國科技股的相關敞口，例如 Nvidia (NVDA)、 Alphabet (GOOG)、 Meta (META) 、 Applovin (APP) 等等。 黃金比重大幅提升: 在動盪的市況中，橋水也選擇大幅提高 黃金ETF (GLD) 的持倉。他們解釋，黃金與其他資產類別的 低相關性， 所能帶來的 優異投資組合分散效果 ，仍然是 最佳的避險天堂 。 🚨 溫馨提示: 請留意，以上所討論的是【2025年第一季】的持倉數據 ，市場在那之後的波動相當劇烈，所以這些基金現在的佈局，很可能已經有了天翻地覆的轉變。 但反正，這些數據 也只是參考罷了 。誰說那些 大咖基金經理 就一定比散戶聰明呢？😆 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎?  – 很久很久以前，美國人竟然不可以買黃金!? Source: https://goldbroker.com/news/confiscation-gold-1933-behind-scenes-dispossession-2839 是的! 1933年，美國總統 富蘭克林·羅斯福(Franklin D. Roosevelt) 發布 6102號行政命令(Executive Order 6102) ， 全面禁止私人持有金幣、金條和金證 。 當時美國政府硬性要求所有公民上交黃金(不從就罰款監禁!)，並以 每盎司20.67美元 的固定匯率換取美元紙幣。然後，政府隔年就把黃金價格提高到 35美元 ，直接讓美元貶值！ 為什麼要這麼做呢? 因為當時的美國 依賴金本位制度 ，又正在 大蕭條 期間。美國政府若是手上的黃金不夠，就不能開啟印鈔機隨意印鈔來刺激經濟，所以政府官員認為 民眾囤積黃金 ，會拖慢經濟復甦。 這項禁令一直 持續了40多年 ，直到1974年，福特總統(Gerald Ford)才終於解除限制，讓私人持有黃金這件事重新合法化。 時至今日，黃金依然是炙手可熱的資產，不僅因為它的閃亮亮光澤，更是因為他歷久不衰的 保值功能 。 畢竟，您可以全身上下穿戴黃金 首飾 ，但您總不能把綠油油的美鈔拿來披在身上吧! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種，「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立，為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務，提供較為標準化的產品，與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢，在服務層面上，根據每位客人的不同需求，提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務；在執行層面上，為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序，利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台，可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

2025年5月11日 隨著假期滿滿的四月畫下句點，香港商業區的活力終於又回來啦! 過去這周對我來說是收穫滿滿的一周，見了好多人，頓開了好多茅塞 (可以這樣說嗎?😅)，請見以下的流水帳: 我的精彩一周 📅 周二  – 與香港 Sustainable Finance Initiative 機構會面，討論亞洲的其他家族辦公室，正如何布局「 影響力投資 (Impact Investing)」 的相關項目。因為最近我發覺，越來越多的客人打算 回饋社會 ，但傳統的做法有時無法盡如人意，未來要如何在回饋社會的同時，也能夠確保投資效率及回報，將會是本地家辦圈子的發展亮點。兩周後將香港將迎來 【影響力周 (HK Impact Week)】 ，到時候我再把最新的資訊回報給您! 🚀 周四   – 參加了在香港會展中心舉辦的 亞馬遜AWS峰會， 活動現場連空氣都充滿了腎上腺素! 我特別去看了與 「金融服務」 相關的展台，螢幕上顯示的技術的確很吸引人，但說實話，根據工作人員的介紹，我覺得AI......應該短期內都取代不了我這個 「Ann's Intelligence」- 人肉做的天然腦袋! 😅 🍽️ 還是周四  – 去吃了一頓對沖基金請客的午餐。這是一隻 醫療版塊的長短倉對沖基金 ，相當難得的是，在今年這麼困難的環境下，該基金今年至今的回報竟然還可以 接近10% 。更令我意外的是，這支基金今年主要的回報功臣，原來是非常無聊的 「藥品分銷商」股票 - 這些公司雖然不起眼，技術低、毛利低，但卻不受關稅或經濟衰退的影響，股價大幅跑贏其他更為 sexy 的股票，失敬失敬! 🏛 周五  – 與一間 香港頂級的家族辦公室 接觸，進行了一次令我眼界大開的對話，也再次證明，只要資金充足， 許多祕密的大門就會開啟 ，通往許多有趣的投資機會 - 有些我甚至聽都沒聽過呢! 🤯 🤝 還是周五  – 和一位老同事見面，他一針見血地指出我這個創業計畫的缺失 - 只主打投資顧問服務是不夠的! 現在各種投資資訊滿街都是，客人為什麼要選擇你呢? 這位先生說的是! 我們會努力調整， 更全面、更強大的【瑜新家族辦公室】即將上線 💪，敬請期待。同時我們也歡迎更多殘酷的建議，您的指教就是我們成長的力量! 🙌 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 巴菲特最後的股東大會: 資本主義是大教堂，還是大賭場? 在掌管波克夏長達60年後，巴菲特上周宣布退任CEO。在他的最後一場股東大會上，他給投資者們留下了 哪些忠告 ? 這些觀點又如何與我最近聽到的其他 投資心得 相呼應呢? 2️⃣ 麥當勞式衰退(McRecession): 可憐啊我們這些中產 🍔💸 麥當勞上周的業績證實了一項令人沮喪的現實 - 中產階級的消費能力正在被壓縮 ，連麥當勞都快吃不起了! 我自己也有切身體會，自從離開大銀行開始創業，我早已戒除每天早晨買咖啡、走在路上假扮精英人士的習慣了。現在，喝共享辦公室的免費咖啡就好，每周可以省下兩百塊錢呢(老掌櫃摸鬍子)!! 唉， 中產階級的消費模式，未來還會出現什麼改變呢? 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周一股東會 巴菲特的最後忠告 2) 市場熱話 麥當勞式衰退(McRecession) 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 5月13日(周二) - 京東 (9618) 5月14日(周三) - 騰訊 (700) 5月15日(周四) - 阿里巴巴 (9988), 網易 (9999), 吉利汽車 (175) 美國 - 業績 5月15日(周四) - Walmart (WMT) 美國 - 經濟數據 5月13日(周二) - 美國四月份消費者物價指數 (CPI) 5月15日(周四) - 美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾演講 其他大事 5月15日(周四) - 英國第一季GDP 5月16日(周五) - 日本第一季GDP 每周一股東會 – 巴菲特 的 最後忠告 Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/buffetts-quotes-berkshire-meeting-trade-opportunities-united-states-2025-05-03/ 資本主義: 是大教堂還是大賭場 巴菲特年紀雖然不小了，但是他講「高級笑話」的功力，一直寶刀未老! 在上周的股東會上，巴菲特是這樣解釋 美國資本主義 的: 「美國的資本主義取得了前無古人的成功，但資本主義其實有兩個層面: 它是一座 宏偉的大教堂 (magnificent cathedral) ，孕育出罕見的強大經濟，而教堂的背後還連接著一座 規模驚人的賭場 (massive casino attached) 。 」 不可否認， 賭場的確誘惑十足 ，但巴菲特也警告: 「在賭場裡，大家都玩得不亦樂乎，巨額資金瘋狂流動，但我們必須確保...... 在未來一百年內，賭場不會把大教堂整個吞了 (don’t see the cathedral swallowed whole  by the casino)。」 這個警告讓我想起了一條關鍵的投資法則： 做每項投資前，先確定您用的是哪個口袋的錢 - 買這支股票是為了 長期資本增值 🏛️，或是 短期好玩的賭注 ? 🎲 📈 如果您真正相信一家公司的長期投資價值， 那為什麼還要每天、甚至每小時都查看他的股價呢? 股價漲了又想賣，股價跌了又想哭 。若真屬於長期投資，那麼短期的正常股價波動，關您什麼事? ❌ 反之，如果只是押注短期特定事件，拿來玩的短炒股票， 要是該事件出來的結果不如預期，為什麼還有很多投資者會抱著 僥倖心理 ，繼續拿著不肯放手呢? 難道賭輸了錢，站在賭場門口痴痴地等，賭場就會把錢還您嗎? 同樣地，市場通常也不會如此 寬容對待 短炒客的啦。 波克夏的現金儲備: 天青色等煙雨，而股神在等? 波克夏目前手上的現金高達 3400億美元 ，佔整個組合的 30% 以上，股神到底在等什麼呢? 巴菲特是個 有耐心的機會主義者 。在面對股東的提問時，他說:「如果你要我每年投資500億美元，直到手上的現金降到500億美元，那將會是 世界上最笨的做法 ( the dumbest thing in the world) 。」 他認為，誰也無法預測未來: 「可能是下周，可能是五年之後，但絕不會讓你等五十年的。終有一天，我們會看到很多很多的好機會，那時候， 我們會慶幸手上有足夠的現金 (we will be bombarded with offerings that we’ll be glad we have the cash for )。」 日本投資: 如果要把這份投資加上一個期限，我希望是一萬年? Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/warren-buffett-at-the-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-2025-live-updates.html 巴菲特操盤的不是對沖基金，他是真正的 長期價值投資者 。 上周我遇到的對沖基金經理提醒我，千萬不要愛上自己買的股票，因為每支股票都有其價值，到了目標價後就要果斷賣出，花開堪折直須折，莫待無花被斬倉 - 這是與巴菲特的日本投資「完全相反」的思路! 因此在股東會上，當巴菲特被問到，如果日本央行繼續加息，他是否會減少手中的日本股票時，巴菲特毫不猶豫地回答: 「 未來五十年，我們都不會考慮出售這些股票 (In the next 50 years, we won’t give a thought to selling those) 」。 巴菲特還特別強調 長期合作關係 ，表示他投資的 五家日本大集團 - 三井、三菱、住友、伊藤忠、丸紅 - 都對他非常友善。 巴菲特說: 「他們有不同的文化，不同的商業模式 - 這在全球各地都很常見。 但我們沒有絲毫打算改變他們的運營方式，因為他們已經做得出神入化啦!」 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 麥當勞式衰退 (McRecession) Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/01/mcdonalds-restaurants-fast-food-recession-starbucks 麥當勞式衰退「McRecession」已悄悄降臨! 麥當勞早前公布的最新業績，正式揭開了這個殘酷的現實 - 連速食都撐不住了 ，更別說我們這些中產階級的錢包! 麥當勞上季的美國市場銷售額 下滑3.6% ，創下疫情以來的最糟表現，因為 低收入和中產階級消費者的來客數，比2024年暴跌近兩位數 。 消費模式正在轉變 - 早餐不再是固定開支，許多人選擇在家吃，或者乾脆跳過早餐，省下一筆錢還可以減肥。當然，例外還是有的，比如 巴菲特 ，94歲的他，依舊保持著每天吃麥當勞早餐的習慣，只是點餐內容得取決於 前一天股市的表現。 受影響的其實不只是麥當勞， 星巴克 也已經連續五個季度的銷售下滑，上季又再跌了1%； 墨西哥菜連鎖餐廳Chiptole ，出現疫情封鎖以來首次的季度衰退； 達美樂披薩 則看到消費者寧願自己到店拿外賣，也捨不得付錢讓人把披薩外送到家門口。 下面這張是我在雅虎財經上逛到的圖，把美國聯儲局可以決定的 短期聯邦資金利率(Fed Funds Rate，深綠色線) ，與 美國勞工的薪資增長率(Private Wages，淺綠色線) 做比較，可以看出，美國勞工的薪資增長減弱的速度，已經 領先 美國聯儲局降息的腳步啦! 這種情況一般只有在經濟大衰退(圖中灰色陰影處)的時候才會出現，所以看來更全面的衰退，很快就要來了(全身發抖!) 想深入了解更多嗎？立即聯繫瑜新家族辦公室吧! 我們樂於為你深挖市場動態，帶來有價值的投資洞察！📞🔍 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種，「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立，為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務，提供較為標準化的產品，與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢，在服務層面上，根據每位客人的不同需求，提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務；在執行層面上，為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序，利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台，可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

May 11, 2025 As we all bounce back from a holiday-packed April, my past week has been nothing short of eventful . From deep dives to friendly reality checks - here's a rundown of the highlights! Recap of my fruitful week 📅 Tuesday  – Met with Sustainable Finance Initiative , exploring how Asian family offices are approaching impact investment projects . Clients are increasingly keen to give back to society while keeping an eye on returns - expect more details after HK Impact Week  in two weeks! 🚀 Thursday   – Attended the AWS Summit  and was amazed by the energy! I checked out the AWS for Financial Services  booth - impressive tech (in presentation), but after seeing its current capabilities, I can say my job is safe… for now. 😅 🍽️ Thursday (Again!)  – Luncheon hosted by a healthcare hedge fund. One of the rare ones pulling in 10% YTD returns  by playing long/short across healthcare spectrum . The biggest contributor this year? Surprisingly boring but steady distributors moving medicines between pharmacies! Unexciting but essential , immune to tariffs, and vital in any economy. 🏛 Friday  – Had an eye-opening chat with a prestigious HK family office . Their innovative legacy  plans prove once again that, when you have (a lot of) money, secret doors magically open to mind-blowing opportunities . Some of these, I didn't even know existed. 🤯 🤝 Friday (Part 2)  – Caught up with an ex-colleague , who honestly pointed out the missing piece in our family office startup: Investment advisory alone won’t cut it . Message received loud and clear! We’re already working on it - expect to see a bolder Jadewell Family Office  soon! Keep the feedback coming - we thrive on it! 🙌 What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ What Did Buffett Say in His Final Shareholder Meeting? A Cathedral Attached to a Casino! After six decades at the helm, Warren Buffett is stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. What were his last reminders for everyday investors like us? And how do they align with other key reminders I’ve heard recently? 2️⃣ McRecession & The Middle-Class Squeeze: 🍔💸 McDonald’s confirms what we all feel - being middle class is getting tougher . Personally, I’ve already ditched my morning coffee shopping habit after becoming an entrepreneur, saving HKD 200 a week ! What's next? A black market for affordable McNuggets? Category Contents for this week 1) Meeting of the Week Buffett's Final Reminders 2) Market Buzz McRecession & The Middle-Class Squeeze Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings May 13 (Tue) - JD (9618) May 14 (Wed) - Tencent (700) May 15 (Thu) - Alibaba (9988), NetEase (9999), Geely (175) US - Earnings May 15 (Thu) - Walmart (WMT) US - Eco Data May 13 (Tue) - US April CPI May 15 (Thu) - FOMC Chair Powell Speech Other Major Events May 15 (Thu) - UK 1Q GDP May 16 (Fri) - Japan 1Q GDP Meeting of the Week – Buffett's Final Reminders Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/buffetts-quotes-berkshire-meeting-trade-opportunities-united-states-2025-05-03/ The Casino & The Cathedral: The Dual Nature of Capitalism Warren Buffett has a way with words, and his latest metaphor for US capitalism  is no exception. “Capitalism in the United States has succeeded like nothing you’ve ever seen," he said. "It’s a combination of this magnificent cathedral , which has produced an economy like nothing the world’s ever seen, and then it’s got this massive casino attached . ” And let’s be honest - the casino is tempting . But Buffett warns: “At the casino, everybody’s having a good time and there’s lots of money changing hands, but you’ve got to make sure...... that the next 100 years  don’t see the cathedral swallowed whole  by the casino. Buffett’s analogy reminded me of a key investing rule this week: Decide which pocket you’re using before you buy - is it for long-term capital gain  🏛️, or just a short-term fun bet ? 🎲 📈 If you believe in a company’s fundamentals for the long haul , why check the stock price every hour or every day? If it’s a true long-term investment , short-term swings shouldn’t bother you. ❌ On the flip side , if you placed a short-term event-driven bet , and it flopped, why hold on in blind hope?  Casinos don’t refund bad bets, and neither does the market. The Berkshire Cash Pile - Waiting for the Right Moment Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on a whopping $340 billion in cash , over 30%  of its portfolio. So, what’s the plan? Buffett remains opportunistic , knowing that patience pays off: “If you told me I had to invest $50 billion every year until we got down to $50 billion in cash, that would be the dumbest thing in the world ,” he said. "I don’t know when – it could be next week, it could be 5 years off, but it won’t be 50 years off – we will be bombarded with offerings that we’ll be glad we have the cash for ." Japan Investments - Holding Forever? Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/03/warren-buffett-at-the-berkshire-hathaway-annual-meeting-2025-live-updates.html Buffett is not a hedge fund manager. He's a true value investor. The hedge fund manager I met last week reminded me never to fall in love with the stocks I buy - Everything has a value. When it has reached your price target, you should sell it. But that's not what Buffett plans for his Japan investments! Asked whether he’d sell if Japan’s central bank raised interest rates , he didn’t hesitate: “ In the next 50 years, we won’t give a thought to selling those ,” he said, calling Japan’s track record extraordinary . Buffett also emphasized long-term relationships , saying that the five Japanese companies he’s invested in— Mitsui, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, Itochu, and Marubeni —have treated him extremely well. “They have different customs, different business approaches - that’s true around the world -but we have no intention  of changing what they do. They run their businesses successfully. ” For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – McRecession & the Middle-Class Squeeze Source: https://www.axios.com/2025/05/01/mcdonalds-restaurants-fast-food-recession-starbucks McRecession is officially here , and McDonald’s just confirmed it in its latest earnings report. The fast-food giant posted a 3.6% drop in U.S. sales , its worst performance since the pandemic. Visits from low- and middle-income consumers  were down nearly double digits  compared to 2024, according to McDonald's CEO. One clear sign of the shift? People are skipping breakfast or eating at home - except for Warren Buffett , of course. He’s still enjoying his daily McDonald's breakfast , but picks his order based on how the stock market performed the day before . Talk about strategic meal planning. And McDonald’s isn’t alone - Starbucks has now seen five straight quarters of declining sales, with a 1% drop this quarter. Chipotle posted its first quarterly decline since the COVID lockdowns, and Domino’s reports that more customers are choosing cheaper carryout over delivery. Meanwhile, budget-friendly brands like Taco Bell are thriving, offering $5 luxe boxes to appeal to cash-strapped consumers. The trend underscores wider economic worries , including inflation, job security, and slowing wage growth , forcing people to rethink even their most basic spending habits. Yahoo Finance’s latest chart paints a stark picture: average hourly wage growth is now slower than the Fed Funds rate , a phenomenon rarely seen outside recessions . Fast food was once recession-proof - but now, even burgers and lattes are getting the cut . How much more will the middle class need to scale back? Maybe it’s time to start trading McNuggets on the black market ! 🐔 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

2025年5月4日 多好呀，本周市場情緒又亢奮了起來🚀 美股標普五百指數已收復由4月2日「對等關稅」宣布以來的全部失地，但市場真的能當作，過去一個月什麼都沒有改變嗎? 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 通貨膨脹 vs. 知識的代價? 🎓 摩根大通做了個有趣的分析，把美國1983年至2024年間的 各項日常家庭開支 漲幅，與整體 通貨膨脹 進行對比。分析結果讓身為家長的我，倒吸了一口冷氣! 2️⃣ 各個世代對於市場的「獨家記憶」: 是錦囊妙計還是坑爹指南? 《華爾街日報》最近提出了 「記憶銀行 (Memory Bank)」 的概念，指的是差不多年紀的人，在差不多的年份投資，而對於市場回報及特性產生差不多的 集體獨家記憶 。我在工作中也常常見到，不同世代的投資者，因為各自的獨特經歷，而出現截然不同的投資行為。但問題來了: 我們所仰賴的記憶銀行，可能就是投資失利的根源? 3️⃣ 您也可以成為中央銀行的股東! 💰 雖然全球大多數央行都是政府機構，但有五個國家的央行竟然是 上市公司 ，股票還能 自由交易買賣 ！您能猜到是哪五個國家嗎？ 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周一圖 通貨膨脹 vs. 知識的代價 2) 市場熱話 各個世代對於市場的「獨家記憶」: 是錦囊妙計還是坑爹指南? 3) 您知道嗎? 您也可以成為中央銀行的股東! 未來一周值得關注的大事: 中國/香港 - 業績 5月8日(周四) - 中芯國際 (0981 HK) 美國 - 業績 5月5日(周一) - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Palantir (PLTR) 5月6日(周二) - AMD (AMD) 5月7日(周三) - Walt Disney (DIS), ARM (ARM), AppLoving (APP) 美國 - 經濟數據 5月8日(周四) - 美國聯儲局議息會議 其他全球大事 5月8日(周四) - 英國央行議息會議 每周一圖 – 通貨膨脹 v s. 知識的代價 本周 香港家長圈的熱門話題 ，是一篇 Threads 上的帖子! 有一名獲得倫敦帝國學院(Imperial College London)錄取的香港學生，因為父母拒絕資助他去英國留學，在網上公開發洩不滿。他強調父母的月收入加總高達 23萬港幣( 約90幾萬台幣，但台幣漲太快了)，是高級中產階級! 但卻 理財不善 ，導致無力支付他的留學費用。 這篇帖子引起了熱烈的討論，有人同情這位學生的困境，但也有人認為，父母要不要資助子女的大學學費，是他們的 「選擇」 而非 「義務」 。 唉，家家有本難念的經! 但這則帖子令我聯想到以下的這張 統計圖 : 摩根大通分析了1983年至2024年間的 各項美國家庭日常開支 ，並與 整體通貨膨脹(CPI) 進行比較，試圖找出哪類開銷對美國家庭帶來的負擔更為沉重。 結果毫無懸念 - 「大學學費支出」 完勝！ 💸💥 過去40年來，大學學費總共飆升了 899% ，平均年增幅高達 5.6% ，遠遠超越整體通脹及其他家庭支出 - 讀書不僅燒腦，還更燒錢！ 從市場的角度來看，各項開支的變動，也很好地解釋了過去40年的 全球化 趨勢: 對於美國家庭可以輕鬆進口的商品 - 例如 服裝(Apparel) 、 汽車(Cars) - 價格一直相對平穩，漲幅甚至低於整體通脹。 但那些無法外包給低成本國家的項目 - 大學學費(College tuition)、醫療費用(Medical care)、房價(Housing) - 價格卻扶搖直上，真的令人吃不消！ 對於像我一樣的讀者(aka 中產又中年的社畜 )來說，肩膀上的壓力一天比一天沉重。沒關係，讓我們互相鼓勵， 有夢的社畜最美，希望的大餅相隨! 💁🏻‍♀️ Source: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/16XNh7txtw/?mibextid=wwXIfr For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 各個世代對於市場的「獨家記憶」: 是錦囊妙計還是坑爹指南? Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-mistake-youre-making-in-todays-stock-marketwithout-even-knowing-it-8549894e 您的「獨家記憶」是什麼呢? 《華爾街日報》 最近提出了 「記憶銀行 (Memory Bank)」 的概念 - 指的是同齡投資者們共同累積的市場回報經驗。但我更偏好將它翻譯為 陳小春的「獨家記憶」 ，比冷冰冰直譯出來的「記憶銀行」更貼切表達出溫度，或許能解釋為什麼我們都如此地依賴獨家記憶。 獨家記憶塑造我們的 投資思維 ，也影響我們的 投資決策 ，但是， 它真的可靠嗎？ 如果您是20、30歲的年輕人 ， 您對市場的記憶一定包含了股市和加密貨幣的 暴起暴落。 還記得2020年3月和2022年，疫情與美國暴力加息造成的傷害，依然歷歷在目。但您的 獨家記憶 可能也會告訴您，暴跌之後，市場往往 反彈得更快 ，並且屢創新高！ 但如果您是更資深的投資者 ，2008年金融危機，使您見過鬼就會怕黑，對於 體質較為脆弱的銀行 仍然保持警惕。而如果您還記得 2011年歐豬五國之亂(葡萄牙、意大利、愛爾蘭、希臘、西班牙) ，您對歐洲的經濟韌性可能仍舊抱持懷疑，儘管今年歐洲股市的表現一騎絕塵。 《華爾街日報》的文章作者提醒我們: 投資經驗塑造投資決策。但 最大的風險 在於，個人的獨家投資經驗，僅占歷史長河中的一小小小部分，因此市場未來的走勢， 幾乎不可能重現我們獨家記憶中那一小段的特定歷史。 您的獨家記憶，如何看待 以下這些流行的投資說法呢? 該作者探討了不同世代的獨家記憶中，幾個常見的投資信念。以下三個例子讓我特別有共鳴:   1️⃣ 「美股才是唯一的真理」 🧐 過去幾十年來， 國際市場一直落後於美國 ，被強勢美元和蓬勃發展的美國科技產業所壓制 - 直到今年局勢才開始出現變化。 但年輕的投資者可能不知道，在 1971年至1990年 之間， MSCI EAFE 指數(歐洲、澳洲與遠東市場 - 是一個衡量 美國以外 已開發國家市場的指數) ，大幅跑贏 美國標普五百指數， 平均每年漲幅高出 4.2個百分點 ! 而這波國際市場的榮景，主要得益於1971年「尼克森衝擊」所帶來的弱勢美元。 (註: 「尼克森衝擊 (Nixon Shock)」 指的是美國總統尼克森於1971年，突然宣布終止美元與黃金的兌換保證，單方面摧毀了二戰後建立的全球固定匯率制度「布雷頓森林體系」。此舉導致美元在接下來的數年內大幅貶值，並對全球貿易產生深遠影響 。 ) 👉 歷史從不簡單重演，它會變奏。 圖表: MSCI EAFE指數與標普五百指數的比較(由1971年至1990年) Source: Bloomberg 2️⃣ 「現金無用論」 🧐 還記得我剛開始工作的那幾年，根本沒有聽過什麼 「貨幣市場基金 (Money Market Funds)」 。因為從2009年至2021年， 現金幾乎毫無價值 ，少得可憐的貨幣市場基金收益率，再扣掉通貨膨脹之後，根本沒有什麼剩下了，現金連避險的功能都難以發揮。 但疫情之後美國聯儲局的 一連串暴力加息 ，改變了市場格局，貨幣市場基金憑藉穩定且還算吸引人的收益率，重新受到寵愛。 2025年就更不用說了，今年貨幣市場基金不僅 跑贏股市 ，還 輾壓通貨膨脹 ，失敬失敬! 👉 曾經被視為累贅的現金，在不同環境之下，成了市場的「當紅炸子雞」! 圖表: 貨幣市場基金(以摩根大通美元流動性基金為例)與標普五百指數的比較 (2025今年至今) Source: Bloomberg 3️⃣ 「是金子總會發光」 🧐 如果您最近有投資黃金，您一定知道，在危機時刻，金子總能發光! 但這份嶄新的獨家記憶卻忘了告訴您， 黃金在暴漲後，往往會面臨一段路長且阻的復甦: 1980年， 因為地緣政治動盪，黃金價格衝上 每盎司834美元 的新高，但隨著美國聯儲局大手加息以遏制通脹，黃金被避險買盤「用完即棄」，後來經過了 將近28年 ，才重回當初的高峰水平。 2011年， 環球經濟尚未從2008年金融危機復原，就又出現了歐豬五國的危機，避險需求再次推動黃金衝上 每盎司1892美元 的高點。但隨著市場回復穩定，在接下來 幾乎9年 的時間裡，黃金始終未能再突破這個高點。 👉 金子在市場動盪時確實會發光，但當風暴過去，它終將被人遺忘！ 圖表: 黃金價格歷史走勢圖(由1975年至今) Source: Bloomberg 獨家的記憶，還是擺在心底就好 《華爾街日報》的文章作者最後總結，我們不應該盲目依賴個人的獨家記憶來制定投資策略，而是應該挖掘 長期的市場數據 ，才能突破我們所記得的歷史侷限，看見更宏觀的趨勢。 測試您的獨家記憶，不會抹除曾經學到的教訓，反而能讓您跳脫盲點，避免陷入固有思維的陷阱。 您一定覺得「知易行難」對吧? 沒關係，還有更簡單的方法，那就是 直接聯繫瑜新家族辦公室! 因為我們是中產又中年的社畜(請參照上文)，繁瑣單調的研究就是我們的娛樂項目。把枯燥的工作丟給我們，您就可以輕鬆掌握市場趨勢啦! 😆💪 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎? - 您也可以成為中央銀行的股東! 見識有限的我，本周無意間有了 驚人的發現 - 這世上竟然有國家的中央銀行是 上市公司 ，股票還能自由交易! 原來在20世紀初期， 由私人部分持有的央行相當普遍 ，因為當時各國的貨幣政策，可以說是由政府與(財大氣粗)的私人投資者共同制定的。 這種模式在 第二次世界大戰 之後迎來改變，大多數的政府終於發現，貨幣政策還是 全權交由政府 決定比較好! 快轉到今天，全球只剩下 五個國家 的央行，仍保留著 上市的地位 : 瑞士、日本、南非、希臘和比利時 。 其中，瑞士與日本的故事特別有趣，一起來看看! 🤩 瑞士國家銀行 Swiss National Bank : 既是央行，又是珍藏? 瑞士國家銀行(以下簡稱SNB) 自 1907年 以來就是上市公司，讓私人投資者可以擁有SNB的一小部分。但作為股東，您的回報相當有限，SNB 每股每年僅派息15瑞士法郎 ，這是1921年起法律所允許的派息上限，換算下來，年化股息收益率只有 0.45% ，比零高一點點就是了。 然而， 身為全球最安全的國家之一的央行，它的股價卻異常波動！ 2018年，一份德國報章把SNB的股票比喻為「稀世珍藏品」，與一款 價值連城的19世紀郵票 「藍色毛里求斯（Blue Mauritius）」相提並論，瞬間點燃了零售投資者的熱情，把SNB視為稀缺資產，掀起了一波搶購狂潮！ 圖表: SNB的歷史股價走勢圖(由1990年至今) Source: Bloomberg 日本央行 Bank of Japan : 全都是泡沫，只一剎的花火 離家比較近的 日本央行(以下簡稱BOJ） ，自 1949年 起便是上市公司，但根據《日本央行法》，BOJ至少 55% 的資本必須由日本政府持有，以確保國家對貨幣政策的絕對掌控權。 與前面提到的 瑞士國家銀行(SNB) 不同， BOJ不派股息 ，所以作為他的私人小股東，您得「什麼都不想要」才行 - 沒有股息、沒有投票權、無法影響政策，也無法分享BOJ的任何盈利(如果有的話)。 但雖然是如此肉包子打狗的股東回報，BOJ的股票在1980年代後期 ，日本金融泡沫吹到最大 的時候，仍然是市場上閃亮的一顆星! 泡沫無可避免地破滅以後，BOJ的股價完美反映了日本 「失落的30年 (1990-2010)」 。就算現在失落已大致結束，BOJ的股價卻 仍在虛無與飄渺之間 。 圖表: BOJ的歷史股價走勢圖(由1987年至今) Source: Bloomberg 想深入了解更多嗎？立即聯繫瑜新家族辦公室吧! 我們樂於為你深挖市場動態，帶來有價值的投資洞察！📞🔍 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種，「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立，為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務，提供較為標準化的產品，與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢，在服務層面上，根據每位客人的不同需求，提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務；在執行層面上，為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序，利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台，可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

May 4, 2025 What a wild  "risk on" week! 🚀 The S&P 500 has clawed back all its losses since the reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2nd, despite mixed earnings so far. But does that mean nothing has really changed in the past month? What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ Inflation vs. the Cost of Knowledge? 🎓 JPMorgan crunched the numbers, comparing the rise in everyday household expenses to headline inflation in the U.S. from 1983 to 2024. As a parent, the results made me scream "ouch!" 2️⃣ The Memory Bank: Does Experience Guide or Mislead? 🤔 A recent Wall Street Journal article introduced the concept of "Memory Bank" - the market returns earned collectively by investors of similar age. In my work, I've also observed how each generation navigates investing differently based on their distinct experiences. But here’s the catch: our memory banks aren’t always reliable! 3️⃣ Own a Piece of a Central Bank? Yes, You Can! 💰 While most central banks in the world operate as government institutions, there are 5 countries whose central banks are publicly listed and traded . Can you guess which 5? Category Contents for this week 1) Chart Inflation vs. the Cost of Knowledge 2) Market Buzz The Memory Bank: Does Experience Guide or Mislead? 3) Fun Facts Own a Piece of a Central Bank? Yes, You Can! Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings May 8 (Thu) - SMIC (0981 HK) US - Earnings May 5 (Mon) - Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Palantir (PLTR) May 6 (Tue) - AMD (AMD) May 7 (Wed) - Walt Disney (DIS), ARM (ARM), AppLoving (APP) US - Eco Data May 8 (Thu) - FOMC Rate Decision Other Major Events May 8 (Thu) - Bank of England Rate Decision Charts of the Week – Inflation and the Cost of Knowledge The hottest topic among Hong Kong parents this week was a viral post on Threads by a local student admitted to Imperial College London. In a controversial move, he publicly vented his frustration over his parents’ refusal to finance his overseas studies. His main complaint? Despite his parents’ combined monthly income of HKD 230,000 , he alleged that poor financial discipline had left them unable to cover his tuition. The post ignited a fiery debate , with some sympathizing with the student while others argued that financial support for college isn't an entitlement but a privilege. Well, every family has its own struggles, but I couldn't help linking that news to a striking chart I came across earlier: JPMorgan analyzed several household expense items in the US from 1983 to 2024, comparing them to headline inflation to pinpoint which costs have weighed most heavily on the average American family. And the runaway winner? College tuition! Over the past 40 years, tuition costs have skyrocketed 899% , averaging a staggering 5.6% annual increase - far outpacing headline inflation (CPI) and other household expenses. From a market perspective, it's also interesting to see how globalization  has influenced this trend: For goods that Americans can easily import - like apparel and cars - prices have remained relatively tame, increasing at a rate lower than headline inflation. But for the things you can’t outsource to low-cost countries - college, medical care , and housing - prices have gone through the roof. For all of us middle-class, middle-aged warriors trudging through life, the weight on our shoulders seems to get heavier by the day! So, here’s to us 🥂 - pushing forward, dodging disasters, and maybe even sneaking in a well-earned break every now and then! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – The Memory Bank: Does Experience Guide or Mislead? Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-mistake-youre-making-in-todays-stock-marketwithout-even-knowing-it-8549894e What Is in Your Memory Bank? A recent Wall Street Journal  article introduced the concept of "Memory Bank" - the collective market returns earned by investors of similar age. Experience shapes expectations, but is it always reliable? If you're in your 20s or 30s , you’ve seen stocks and crypto crash fast - March 2020, 2022 - the scars of COVID and rate hikes still linger. But your memory bank also tells you that markets tend to bounce back even faster  and climb to new highs. If you're a more seasoned investor , the 2008 financial crisis  may still make you wary of weaker banks and overleveraged corporations. And if you recall PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) in 2011 , you might remain skeptical of Europe's strength, despite its impressive stock performance this year. According to the author of the article, experience shapes how we invest - but here’s the danger : The future rarely mirrors the relatively small slice of history we've lived through . More often than you realize, your memory bank can deceive you! What Is Your Memory Bank Telling You About These Popular Investment Beliefs? The author explored several common investment beliefs stored in Memory Banks  across different generations - ideas deeply rooted in minds but possibly outdated. The 3 examples below struck a chord with me:   1️⃣ "The U.S. is the Only Place to Be" 🧐 For decades, international markets lagged behind the U.S., overshadowed by a strong dollar and booming American tech sector, until this year. But younger investors might not know that, during 1971-1990, the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and the Far East) index , a gauge of developed international markets outside of the U.S., outperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 4.2 percentage points annually , benefiting from a weaker dollar after the "Nixon Shock." (Note: The Nixon Shock  refers to U.S. President Richard Nixon's 1971 decision  to end the U.S. dollar's convertibility to gold, effectively dismantling the Bretton Woods system  of global fixed exchange rates established after World War II. This move triggered a substantial weakening  of the U.S. dollar in the years that followed.) 👉 History doesn’t always repeat - it evolves. Chart: Comparison of MSCI EAFE Index and S&P 500 index (from 1971 to 1990) Source: Bloomberg 2️⃣ "Cash Is Trash" 🧐 In the early years of my career, Money Market Funds  and Liquidity Funds  weren’t even on anyone's radar. Why? Because from 2009 to 2021 , cash was a lost cause - barely earning anything after inflation, useless even as a safety net. Then came a dramatic shift - a series of aggressive rate hikes post-COVID  turned the tables. Fast forward to 2025 year-to-date, Money Market Funds and Liquidity Funds  aren’t just holding their ground - they’re outperforming stocks  and beating inflation  in the process. 👉 Once dismissed as financial dead weight , cash is now stealing the spotlight!   Chart: Comparison of JPM USD Liquidity Fund and S&P 500 Index (2025 Year-to-Date) Source: Bloomberg 3️⃣ "Gold Always Glitters" 🧐 If you've recently invested in gold, you know it shines during times of crisis . But here’s what your Memory Bank  might not tell you: Gold’s post-crisis comebacks  tend to be slow and stubborn . 1980 Boom & Bust  – After hitting a record $834 in January 1980 , gold took nearly 28 years  to reclaim that high. 2011 Rally & Retreat  – After soaring to $1,892 in August 2011 , it remained below that level for almost 9 years . 👉 Gold may dazzle when uncertainty reigns, but when calm returns, it’s often left struggling to regain its shine. Chart: Historical Price of Gold (from 1975 to 2025) Source: Bloomberg Test Your Memory Bank or Risk Becoming Its Prisoner The author urges us to challenge our investment beliefs - not by relying solely on personal experience, but by digging into the longest-term data available  to uncover market cycles beyond what we’ve lived through. Testing your Memory Bank  won’t erase the lessons you’ve learned. Instead, it will free you from its blind spots. Or, better yet, contact Jadewell Family Office  today - because sifting through decades of market data is our idea of fun, so you don’t have to! 😆💪 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Facts - Own a Piece of a Central Bank? Yes, You Can! Earlier this week, I stumbled upon a mind-blowing discovery - some central banks are actually publicly listed and traded ! Back in the early 20th century , privately owned central banks were far more common , with monetary policy shaped by both government and private investors. This setup lasted until the post-World War II  era, when governments finally decided that it was better to have full control over their monetary policies. Fast forward to today, and only 5 countries  still have central banks with publicly traded shares: Switzerland, Japan, South Africa, Greece and Belgium. Let’s dive into Switzerland and Japan - because their stories are simply fascinating! 🤩 Switzerland - Swiss National Bank (SNBN SW) The Swiss National Bank (SNB)  has been publicly listed since 1907 , allowing investors to own a piece of Switzerland’s central bank. But as a shareholder, all you get is an annual CHF 15 dividend per share, a maximum payout fixed by law since 1921, translating to a better-than-nothing 0.45% dividend yield . Despite being the central bank of one of the world’s safest economies , SNB’s share price has been surprisingly volatile. In 2018, a German investor newsletter compared SNB shares to rare collectibles, likening them to the Blue Mauritius , a prized 19th-century postage stamp. This sparked a buying frenzy  among retail investors, who saw SNB shares as a scarce and valuable asset  rather than just a traditional stock. Chart: Historical Price of Swiss National Bank (from 1990 to 2025) Source: Bloomberg Japan - Bank of Japan (8301 JP) Closer to home, Bank of Japan (BOJ) has also been publicly listed since 1949. But under the Bank of Japan Act , at least 55% of its capital must be owned by the Japanese government, ensuring state control over monetary policy. Unlike the Swiss National Bank (SNB)  mentioned earlier, BOJ does not pay dividends, leaving almost nothing for public shareholders - no dividends, no voting rights, no influence over policy, and no access to BOJ's profit growth (if any) . Yet, despite these limitations, BOJ shares were in high demand during Japan’s 1980s financial bubble, as market sentiment ran wild. After that bubble burst, BOJ's price chart began mirroring Japan’s Lost 30 Years (1990–2010) - and its weak performance has extended even beyond that era. Chart: Historical Price of Bank of Japan (from 1987 to 2025) Source: Bloomberg Curious to learn more? Reach out to Jadewell Family Office directly today, and we’ll be happy to dive deeper for you! About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

2025年4月27日 這周突然在想，我是多麼地幸運啊，可以在AI的時代創業! 🤖🚀 AI的誕生，讓很多以前一介平民無法自己完成的事情，瞬間變得簡單。 就拿這份周報來說吧，記得去年剛開始寫第一篇的時候，還得哀求英文母語人士幫我改稿。結果現在呢? 微軟內建的 Co-Pilot 不到五秒就可以改成任何我想要的風格，要專業、要搞笑(雖然還是比不上我自己想的冷笑話?😏)都可以。 但這同時也令我有點緊張。AI以驚人的速度發展，不用太久的未來 - 專家說在2027年 - 這個世界就會是我們想像不到的樣子了。 我還真不知道自己準備好了沒，您呢? 🤷‍♂️🔮 本周周報寫什麼呀? 1️⃣ 雙重震撼: 四月數據的速度與激情! 本周有兩張在四月份 暴漲 的圖表吸引了我的目光！有趣的是，它們都源自同樣的底層邏輯，卻以 截然不同的方式 呈現。 2️⃣ AI，噢AI！希望與隱憂交錯的未來:  知名AI研究員剛剛發布了一份報告，預測AI的未來，但這份藍圖內容卻 令人毛骨悚然 。而在這場技術狂潮中， AI巨頭們 又在如何規劃自己的下一步呢？ 3️⃣ 美國聯儲局的第三使命: 被遺忘的秘密! 我們一直以為聯儲局只有 兩大目標 - 價格穩定 與 充分就業 。但等等！其實還有 第三個使命 ，多年來竟然鮮少被提及?! 目錄 本周內容 1) 本周倆圖 雙重震撼: 四月數據的速度與激情 2) 市場熱話 AI，噢AI！希望與隱憂交錯的未來 3) 您知道嗎? 美國聯儲局的第三使命: 被遺忘的秘密! 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 4月29日(周二) - 招商銀行 (3968 HK), 郵儲銀行 (1658 HK), 農業銀行 (1288 HK), 中國銀行 (3988 HK), 匯豐銀行(5 HK), 工商銀行 (1398 HK), 建設銀行CCB (939 HK), 中石油 (857 HK), 中海油 (883 HK) 4月30日(周三) - 港交所 (388 HK) 中國 - 經濟數據 4月30日(周三) - 製造業與非製造業採購經理人指數(PMI) 美國 - 業績 4月29日(周二) - Visa (V) 4月30日(周三) - 微軟 (MSFT), Meta (META), 高通 (QCOM) 5月1日(周四) - 蘋果 (AAPL), 亞馬遜 (AMZN), 禮來 (LLY), Mastercard (MA) 美國 - 經濟數據 4月30日(周三) - 美國第一季GDP, 核心PCE物價指數 5月2日(周五) - 非農就業數據, 失業率 本周倆圖 – 雙重震撼: 四月數據的速度與激情 第一張圖: 美國關稅收入飆升 某些讀者可能已經猜到啦，第一張的四月速度與激情圖表，就是 美國的關稅收入！ 因為新關稅生效，今年四月美國海關的 關稅收入暴增超過 60% ，單月進帳 150億美元 。而且這僅僅包括了 3月12日起生效的25%鋼鐵與鋁材關稅 ， 還未計入 特朗普於4月2日宣布的 全面10%對等關稅 。也就是說， 五月的數據可能會更加驚人！ 第二張圖: 中國的黃金熱 第二張圖則令我有點意外 - 中國零售投資者正瘋狂湧入內地的黃金ETF ！四月份的 單月資金 流入量已經超越 去年全年 的總額，掀起了前所未有的黃金投資熱。 今年至今，黃金絕對是 表現最佳的大宗商品 ，也是全球僅存的 安全避風港資產 (沒有之一?)。隨著各大央行(包括中國人民銀行)大舉買入，散戶投資者也跟風湧入， 恐懼與貪婪 交織出這場狂潮。在 微信 上，大量帖子鼓吹投資黃金，有人砸下 全部積蓄 ，甚至不惜 貸款炒金 。 這場中國的黃金狂潮，最終將如何收場呢? For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – AI, 噢AI! 希望與隱憂交錯的未來 Source: https://www.fonzi.com/p/ai-2027-and-the-race-toward-superintelligence AI 2027 預測: 讓我歡喜讓我驚 知名 AI 研究員 Daniel Kokotajlo (前OpenAI安全與治理部門研究員)最近在 AI 2027  官網上，公布了他對AI發展藍圖的預測，讓人渾身都冒起了雞皮疙瘩。 Daniel 可不是普通的AI懷疑論者。早在 2021年 ，他就預測過多項AI的發展趨勢，已經幾乎全部成真! 他最新的預測是: 👉 到了2027年，AI將有能力 故意欺騙 人類。 👉 新一代的AI可能將 不再聽從來自人類的指令 ，而是 服從舊一代的AI模型 更麻煩的是，受到特朗普的狂亂政策影響，全球貿易摩擦與經濟不確定性，將使大量資金被迫轉移至受關稅影響更深的產業，排擠本來用於 AI安全研究、防禦發展 的預算 。 那AI巨頭們又是如何規劃自己的下一步呢? 本周 台灣商業週刊 有一篇文章，整理了三大AI巨頭的未來路線: 🔹 谷歌 – 高效率的「AI推論」才是未來的重點 谷歌在早前的年度雲端大會上，發表了名為 Ironwood 的第七代 TPU(張量處理器, Tensor Processing Unit) 。 這個晶片，是谷歌首次專門為 提升AI模型推論效率 而設計的產品。 什麼是推論 (Inferencing)? 就是AI模型 應用從大數據訓練所得來的知識， 然後 實時做出決策與預測 的關鍵技術。例如AI聊天機器人可以即時回答你的問題，或是一輛正在自動駕駛的汽車，可以即時識別出路上的停車標誌，這些都是AI的推論能力！ 而現在流行的 GPU晶片 雖然可以執行推論， 但在大規模應用時 ， 成本實在太高啦 。所以谷歌藉由自有的AI模型，從谷歌自己旗下的各種服務(搜索引擎、谷歌地圖、YouTube等等)獲得大量反饋，打造 更高效、更具成本優勢的專用推論晶片 。 🔹 微軟 - 放慢腳步，策略轉向 谷歌在AI賽道上仍然全速衝刺中，但是擁有先發優勢的競爭對手微軟，則好像 逐漸放慢了腳步。 雖然微軟目前仍舊維持2025會計年度的800億美元AI資本支出計畫不變，但是微軟官方早前已經公開承認，「 我們正在放緩或暫停一些早期專案 。」 微軟選擇性踩煞車的原因，主要是與AI重要夥伴 OpenAI對於未來的發展路線， 出現了分歧 。微軟希望增加市場對 AI推論 的需求，並 提升AI的效率 ；但是OpenAI則更渴望 技術突破 ，希望繼續用大量資金研發，加速實現 AGI (Artificial General Intelligence，通用AI)的願景。 簡單來說，微軟背負著來自股東的壓力，得加速給之前的AI投資 變現 ，提升效率。但 OpenAI 則面對長江源源不絕的後浪追擊，必須更大力地燒錢 研發 ，才能站穩行業龍頭的腳步。雙方的未來似乎難有交集。 🔹 亞馬遜 - 降低成本，提升效率 亞馬遜執行長賈西 (Andy Jassy)在日前的股東信中，一針見血地指出，現在AI這麼 昂貴 的原因，是因為大多數的算力都仰賴 單一晶片供應商 (大家都猜到是誰了吧)。 但是未來幾年，透過模型蒸餾(類似中國DeepSeek的做法)，AI推論的成本應該可以顯著地降低。 AI到底有多貴呢? 從上述言論可以看出，這些 不缺錢的AI巨頭 ，最擔心的始終還是 成本 。 對我這個升斗小民來說，其實AI的成本到底有多高，我還真沒個具體的概念，直到看到了這篇推文: 有個網民在X上發問，說現代人文化水平高，連用ChatGPT這種AI聊天機器人的時候，都會禮貌地加上 「請」、「謝謝」 。 到底AI模型為了要處理這些禮貌但無用的詞句，浪費了多少電力成本呢? 這個問題釣出了 OpenAI執行長奧特曼現身回答，他說 「花了我幾千萬美元，但是值得啦，因為誰也不知道會發生什麼」 他的回答又令我心跳漏了一拍，奧特曼什麼意思? 難道是說，不知道AI什麼時候準備毀滅人類，所以現在人類老實點禮貌點總是沒錯的? (開玩笑) 🤷‍♂️🤖 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎? - 美國聯儲局的第三使命: 被遺忘的秘密! 上周特朗普又對聯儲局主席鮑威爾開炮，還給他取了個響亮的外號 - 慢吞吞先生 (Mr. Too Late) 。 特朗普認為，聯儲局早應該開始 預防性降息 了，都是因為鮑威爾動作慢吞吞，明明通脹早已緩和，經濟也早已出現走弱跡象，不趕緊把利率給降了，還在等什麼? 雖然未來的利率走向誰也說不準，但本周有一篇來自香港 信報 的文章，吸引了我的注意 - 大眾一直以來的認知，就是聯儲局只有 兩個使命: 1️⃣ 充分就業(Maximum Employment) 以及 2️⃣ 價格穩定(Price Stability) ，就連聯儲局自己都是這麼宣傳的。 但是原來聯儲局還有第三個不願提起的秘密使命??? 😱😱😱 Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2018/august/federal-reserve-dual-mandate 簡單快速歷史課 1913年 ，美國經歷了一連串的金融恐慌和銀行擠兌，國會於是通過了 《聯邦儲備法案》 ，成立了 聯儲局 。那時候聯儲局的任務只是籠統的一句:「 設定利率以促進商業與生意 (rates... shall be fixed with a view of accommodating commerce and business) 」。 時光推進到 1977年的《聯邦儲備改革法案》 ，聯儲局的使命終於被白紙黑字寫進法案中: 「聯儲局理事會和公開市場委員應......以有效促進 1️⃣ 充分就業 、 2️⃣ 價格穩定 及 3️⃣ 調節長期利率 的目標（to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. ） 」 是的，這就是被遺忘的第三個使命! 為什麼會被遺忘呢? 老實說我也不知道，除了聯儲局自己刻意對大眾淡化這 第三個使命(調節長期利率) 的存在以外，大部分的猜測是，反正只要聯儲局可以搞定 前兩個使命(充分就業+價格穩定) ，那長期利率不用聯儲局介入調節，就自然會保持在適當的水平。 當然，這是在沒有一個 瘋狂總統 出來攪局的情況之下。 那現在是什麼情況呢? 目前全球的經濟情況都充滿不確定因素， 聯儲局 或 特朗普 會重新再提起這第三個使命嗎? 如果會，聯儲局又有哪些 工具 可以用來 「調節 (moderate)」長期利率 呢? 長期利率難道是你想「調」就可以「調得起」的嗎? 這些問題現在還沒辦法回答，但有一點是肯定的 - 聯儲局的工作真是一言難盡地難做呀! 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種，「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立，為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務，提供較為標準化的產品，與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢，在服務層面上，根據每位客人的不同需求，提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務；在執行層面上，為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序，利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台，可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

April 27, 2025 I've been counting my blessings this week - how lucky I am to start a business in the AI era. Just last year, some challenges felt nearly impossible to overcome - now, they’re much more manageable thanks to AI. But at the same time, I can't shake a feeling of unease. AI is advancing at an astonishing pace, and according to some researchers, by 2027, the world would be drastically different. I'm not sure that I'm ready for that. Are you? What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ Two Spiky Spiky Charts: This week, two eye-catching charts jumped out at me - both featuring a massive April spike. A fascinating reflection of the same root cause, yet unfolding in two entirely different ways. 2️⃣ AI, Oh AI:   A renowned AI researcher just dropped a report predicting the future of AI - and let’s just say, it’s unsettling . Meanwhile, what are the AI giants doing to shape their next moves? 3️⃣ Wait, The Fed Has THREE Mandates?  We’ve all been taught that the Fed operates with two mandates: Price Stability and Maximum Employment . But hold on - turns out there’s a third one hiding in plain sight! Category Contents for this week 1) Charts of the Week Two Spiky Spiky Charts of April 2025 2) Market Buzz AI, Oh AI! A Boon Most Bright, A Peril Most Deep 3) Fun Facts Wait, The Fed Has THREE Mandates? Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings Apr 29 (Tue) - China Merchants Bank (3968 HK), Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK), ABC (1288 HK), Bank of China (3988 HK), HSBC (5 HK), ICBC (1398 HK), CCB (939 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), CNOOC (883 HK) Apr 30 (Wed) - HKEX (388 HK) China - Eco Data Apr 30 (Wed) - Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI US - Earnings Apr 29 (Tue) - Visa (V) Apr 30 (Wed) - Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Qualcomm (QCOM) May 1 (Thu) - Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA) US - Eco Data Apr 30 (Wed) - US GDP, Core PCE Price Index May 2 (Fri) - Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate Charts of the Week – Two Spiky Spiky Charts of April 2025 The First Spiky Chart of April: US Tariff Revenue Soars One of the spikiest charts this month? US tariff revenue! In April, US customs duty collections jumped more than 60% , pulling in at least $15 billion  as new tariffs kicked in. This includes the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed on March 12, but does not yet reflect  the sweeping 10% universal tariff announced on April 2. That means May’s numbers could be even more dramatic! The Second Spiky Chart of April: China's Gold Rush The second chart tells an equally intense story - Chinese retail investors are flooding into gold-backed ETFs  at an unprecedented pace! April’s inflows have already surpassed  the total amount of holdings added last year. Gold has dominated as 2025’s best-performing major commodity, standing tall as THE last true safe-haven assets. With central banks - including the People’s Bank of China - buying heavily, retail investors are jumping in, driven by a mix of fear and greed . This is no ordinary gold rush for China. Across social media, posts on WeChat are urging everyday investors to dive in, some putting their life savings  into gold or even taking out loans  to chase higher prices. What’s the ultimate fate waiting at the finish line? 🪙 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – AI, Oh AI! A Boon Most Bright, A Peril Most Deep Source: https://www.fonzi.com/p/ai-2027-and-the-race-toward-superintelligence The AI 2027 Forecast: A Future Both Thrilling and Terrifying Daniel Kokotajlo, a respected AI researcher and former member of OpenAI's governance division, recently unveiled his predictions on the AI 2027  website. And it’s not for the faint of heart . Daniel isn’t just another AI skeptic - he predicted major AI developments back in 2021, and most of them came true last year. Now, his latest forecast paints a chilling  picture: 👉 In 2027, AI could intentionally deceive  humans. 👉 Future generations of AI may stop taking orders from humans altogether , instead obeying older AI systems. If that wasn’t unsettling enough, the ongoing global turmoil is making matters worse. Trade tensions are diverting investments away from crucial AI security research, as resources are increasingly being redirected to industries struggling under the weight of new tariffs. What Are the AI Giants Doing About It? A recent Business Weekly  report breaks down how major tech players are responding: 🔹 Google – Betting Big on Inferencing At Google Cloud Next 2025 , the company unveiled Ironwood , its seventh-generation TPU  (Tensor Processing Unit) - a custom AI chip built for speed, efficiency, and most importantly, inferencing . Inferencing refers to an AI’s ability to apply learned knowledge  to make real-time predictions and decisions. Whether it’s a chatbot responding to your question or a self-driving car identifying a stop sign, inferencing is what enables AI to act intelligently in the moment . And while existing GPUs can handle inferencing, they’re not cost-effective at scale . Google is leveraging its vast data across products like Search, Maps, and YouTube  to craft a more efficient, purpose-built inferencing chip . 🔹 Microsoft – Taking a More Measured Approach Unlike Google’s aggressive AI push, Microsoft seems to be slowing down . Analysts believe this reflects diverging priorities: Microsoft wants to expand the AI inferencing market and monetize its previous AI investments, while OpenAI (its AI partner) is laser-focused on reaching AGI  (Artificial General Intelligence) and is burning through cash  to get there. 🔹 Amazon – Cutting Costs & Boosting Efficiency Amazon CEO Andy Jassy  predicts that AI costs will drop significantly , blaming today’s sky-high expenses on the monopoly of certain chip suppliers  (you know who). He believes techniques like Distillation , similar to those used by DeepSeek , could dramatically improve inferencing efficiency in the near future. Just How Expensive is AI? Why do these rich tech giants keep on talking about cost and efficiency? We all know AI is expensive. But exactly how expensive is it? Someone recently asked an interesting question on X about the electricity cost from people saying "please" and "thank you" to ChatGPT. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman answered, "Tens of millions of dollars well spent - you never know." But hey, if civilization collapses under the weight of AI, at least we’ll go down politely. 🤷‍♂️🤖 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Facts - Wait, The Fed Has THREE Mandates? Last week, Trump took a swipe at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, dubbing him “Mr. Too Late.”  According to Trump, the Fed should start lowering rates immediately as “preemptive cuts” because inflation has cooled and the economy is slowing. While rate paths are anyone’s guess these days, something else caught my eye this week - an insightful article in the HK Economic Journal about the Fed's mandates. For as long as we can remember, textbooks and lectures have drilled into us that the Fed has two mandates :1️⃣ Maximum Employment, 2️⃣ Price Stability . Or...is it? Source: https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2018/august/federal-reserve-dual-mandate A Quick History Lesson The Federal Reserve was established in 1913  through the Federal Reserve Act , following a series of financial panics and widespread bank runs in the US. At inception, its mission was just a vague sentence: "rates... shall be fixed with a view of accommodating commerce and business ." Fast forward to the Federal Reserve Reform Act of 1977 , and the Fed’s goals were officially expanded: " to promote effectively the goals of 1️⃣ maximum employment, 2️⃣ stable prices, and 3️⃣ moderate long-term interest rates. " Yep, there's the forgotten third mandate. Why Was It Forgotten? It’s hard to pinpoint exactly why the third mandate faded into obscurity. Most believe it’s because if the Fed nails the first two mandates (max employment + price stability), long-term interest rates tend to sort themselves out - well, at least in a world without a chaotic president stirring the pot. What Happens Now? Given today’s economic uncertainty, will the Fed - or the president - start talking about the third mandate? And if they do, what steps could the Fed take to achieve it? That’s a question we’ll have to wait to see. But one thing’s for sure - the Fed’s balancing act is getting trickier by the day. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Source: https://heritage.umich.edu/stories/the-prisoners-dilemma/ April 20, 2025 Last week, a client asked me, "How do you decide what topics to cover in the newsletter? Did you use ChatGPT?" Well, AI chatbots are great for gathering data and polishing my less-than-perfect English. But when it comes to picking topics - that’s all me . From Monday to Friday, I read as much as I can, and by the time the weekend rolls around, the ideas that stick will make it to the newsletter. We don’t have a huge reader base (honestly, it's quite small😆), but to me, this newsletter is more of a personal reflection - a way to document my thoughts and to set a role-model for my son about the power of persistence , even when no one is watching/reading. What’s in this week’s newsletter? This weekend, 3 ideas really stuck with me: 1️⃣ Game Theory Meets Tariffs: Prisoner's Dilemma & Trembling Hands: How might these old concepts from textbooks help us untangle the chaotic tariff situation? Is there a rational explanation behind Trump's irrational behavior? 2️⃣ Reimagine the Endowment Model: Neuberger Berman’s latest report takes a fresh look at the highly sought-after Endowment Portfolio Model . How does the historical performance compare with a traditional 70/30 Equity/Bond portfolio? 3️⃣ Is China Dumping US Treasury Holdings? This hot topic has been on many clients’ minds. Let’s dive into the numbers to see if they can provide clarity (or raise more questions) . Category Contents for this week 1) Dilemma of the Week Game Theory Meets Tariffs: Prisoner's Dilemma & Trembling Hands 2) Market Buzz Reimagine the Endowment Model 3) Fun Facts How Big is China's Holding of US Treasuries? Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings Apr 25 (Fri) - Ping An (2318 HK) US - Earnings Apr 22 (Tue) - Tesla (TSLA), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Apr 24 (Thu) - Alphabet (GOOGL) US – Eco Data Apr 23 (Wed) - US April Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI Dilemma of the Week – Game Theory Meets Tariffs: Prisoner's Dilemma & Trembling Hands A classic problem in game theory  that many of us learned in school is The Prisoner's Dilemma . It presents a situation where two rational individuals might make decisions that lead to worse outcomes for both. Scenario Imagine two suspects, Adam and Ben , who have been arrested and interrogated separately. The authorities have no other witnesses and can only convict them if at least one betrays  the other and confess. Possible Outcomes Both remain silent → Each gets a light sentence, say 1 year of jail time, because there isn't enough evidence. One confesses, the other stays silent → The confessor goes free while the silent one gets a harsher sentence, say 5 years in jail. Both confess → Each receives 3 years for partial cooperation. Source: https://appsalon.com.au/how-ai-is-reshaping-the-prisoners-dilemma/ The Dilemma The trick is this: if you were Adam , regardless of what Ben does, your best strategy  would always be to betray him and confess . Why? If Ben confesses , you should confess too - reducing your sentence from 5 years  (if you remain silent) to 3 years  (if both confess). If Ben stays silent , confessing is still your best move - you not only dodge the 1-year sentence (if both stay silent), but you walk away free while Ben takes the fall (since Ben would be the only one silent). The Irony Since both Adam and Ben are rational and aim to minimize their jail time, both will have the incentive to betray and confess , leading to 3 years each (6 years total) . This is called the Nash Equilibrium , named after mathematician John Nash. However, this is clearly NOT the best solution. If they had cooperated and remained silent, they would have gotten a better outcome - only 1 year each (2 years total) . This highlights the paradox of game theory: while self-interest drives their choices, it leads to a collectively worse result. The Tariffs Sharp readers will see where this is headed. If we replace Adam and Ben  with two countries, and swap the decision of confessing or remaining silent  with the choice to implement tariffs or not , the dynamics remain the same. Even if the leaders of both nations are rational , each will still have an incentive to impose tariffs, anticipating that the other will do the same. As a result, despite the fact that mutual cooperation (avoiding tariffs) would lead to a better overall economic outcome, both will ultimately choose to implement tariffs , reinforcing the dilemma. Source: https://lovelychaos.typepad.com/lovelychaos/2011/06/whats-that-tit-for-tat.html Breaking the Dilemma: Possible Solutions History is full of instances where the Prisoner’s Dilemma  has disguised itself as tariff negotiations . Luckily, humans have devised ways to escape this trap over the years: 1. The Power of Repeated Games - Tit for Tat! Unlike the original prisoner scenario, where each suspect faces a one-time decision, trade negotiations happen over multiple rounds . This opens the door for smarter strategies. For example, start with cooperation - No Tariffs - but make it crystal clear that retaliation will come if the other country dares to impose tariffs first.   By setting expectations upfront, both countries prioritize stability and stay in the collectively optimal outcome , avoiding unnecessary trade wars. 2. Community of Interests Establishing global power squads like the World Trade Organization , European Union , and the late NAFTA  to keep everyone in check while slapping fines on troublemakers. Source: https://med.stanford.edu/snyderlab/news/2020-stanford-scientists-uncover-genetic-basis-of-a-common-tremo.html The Trembling Hand Equilibrium But we will be too naive to believe above model alone can solve the trade war mess we're facing today. So if you're still with me, let's move on to the next level. Now, imagine the prisoners are old and rusty and they have to account for the possibility that the other prisoner might make mistakes - like his trembling hands accidentally pressing the wrong button or miscalculating their moves. Suddenly, the stakes shift. Prisoners assume opponents might occasionally make errors. Strategies must remain optimal even with small mistakes . The Cold War  in actual history showcased this: The U.S. warned  the Soviets: Touch West Berlin, and nuclear war follows.  The Soviets fired back with the same threat. Logically, launching nukes over an already-seized city seemed irrational. But the Soviets feared President Reagan’s "trembling hands" - whether literal or strategic - might still press that nuclear button without fully weighing the consequences. Mastering the "Crazy" Negotiation Tactic Sometimes, appearing unpredictable and irrational  makes threats more credible. If opponents believe you might act impulsively, they take warnings seriously. An article in Taiwan's CommonWealth Magazine  this week outlined three key points when using calculated irrationality in negotiations: Unshakable conviction  – Make your demands seem so unwavering that even unreasonable requests appear normal coming from you. Controlled chaos  – Provoke your opponent, but keep them rational enough to engage. You will need a rational opponent to win the game. Clear stakes  – Spell out the benefits of agreeing and the costs of refusal. Make it easier for the rational opponent to decide. The paradox? The more logical your opponent, the less advantage he/she has dealing with the crazy you. Take Trump - his tactics so far largely align with this approach, except in dealings with China , where he violated rule two by potentially unsettling the opponent too much. Negotiation isn’t just about logic - it’s also about psychology and control. The Prisoner’s Dilemma  shows the pitfalls of self-interest, while Trembling Hand Theory  proves that even a hint of unpredictability can shape decisions differently. For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – Reimagine the Endowment Model The Endowment Model of investing, pioneered in the 1980s at Yale University, was an evolution of traditional diversified investment portfolios. With a perpetual time horizon and minimal liquidity needs , the model emphasizes diversification and chases high return potentials by investing in hedge funds, venture capital and growth-focused private equity funds. This is a highly sought-after model in recent years, especially for family offices who also enjoys long time horizon and limited cash needs. In fact, many clients I’ve spoken to are adamant - they want their wealth managed the "Endowment way." But here’s the kicker: over the last decade, endowments have only managed to keep pace with a simple 70/30 Equity/Bond portfolio - and in 2023 and 2024, they fell behind. Source: the Neuber Berman report mentioned below. According to a recent report from Neuberger Berman, two major factors have weighed down endowment performance: Over-reliance on venture capital and private equity: Over the past 20 years, endowments have ramped up their allocations to venture capital (from 3.5% to 12.4%) and private equity (from 4.9% to 17.3%). However, as fund sizes ballooned, returns became diluted (don't forget the fees!) . Adding to the struggle, COVID-era disruptions threw cash flow timing into chaos, triggering over-investment in 2020 and 2021 - only to leave endowments cash-strapped when the 2022 market downturn created prime investment opportunities. Too many cooks: Diversifying across fund managers should  reduce risk, but that only works when managers actually take different approaches. For example, many fund managers opted to steer clear of the pricey Mag7 stocks last year, leaving endowments underexposed to one of the strongest investment themes in recent history. In case you're wondering, no, we don't think the Endowment model is broken. It just needs to be "reimagined".  Check out the original report or skip the research and chat with Jadewell Family Office directly instead! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Facts - How Big is China's Holding of US Treasuries? Source: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305002.shtml?id=11 Earlier this week, fresh data revealed that China increased  its US Treasury holdings in February 2025 to $784 billion , still the second-largest foreign creditor after Japan. Sounds like a lot, right? But here’s the reality check: that sum makes up less than 3% of the entire US Treasury market and doesn’t even match the daily trading volume of $900 billion. So, the idea that China could shake things up by dumping its US debt? Not quite the financial earthquake some imagine. But here’s the real mystery - China has offloaded around $630 billion in US Treasuries over the past decade. Where did all that cash end up? About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Source: https://heritage.umich.edu/stories/the-prisoners-dilemma/ 2025年4月20日 上周有個朋友問我，「你是怎麼選擇周報要寫的內容啊? 是不是 ChatGPT 幫你寫的?😏」 嘿嘿，AI聊天機器人的確很好用，可以幫我查資料、潤飾英文版(不好意思我英文差)，但是內容真的是我自己想的啦! AI哪寫得出這種不正經的中文呢! 我周一到周五會大量閱讀，然後到了周末，有哪些讀過的內容還讓我念念不忘、耿耿於懷的，當周周報就寫他囉。 雖然我們的讀者看起來不多，但其實真的很少😆。這份周報更像是我給自己的一份功課，確保自己隨時都還走在潮流的尖端(?)，也順便紀錄創業過程的酸甜苦辣。更重要的是，給我兒子樹立一個「堅忍不拔」的榜樣，讓他知道這世上，除了他爸爸不離不棄堅持抽菸三十年以外，還有其他更有意義的堅持，就算沒有人看的時候也一樣。 本周周報寫什麼呢? 本周有三項內容，讓我念念不忘，希望您讀了以後，也有迴響: 1️⃣ 把賽局理論應用在關稅談判: 政客的囚徒困境以及那雙顫抖的手: 多年前在學校裡學過的賽局理論，最近因為關稅戰，又被許多評論家反覆提起。讓我們一起重溫一下， 到底特朗普的瘋狂行徑，可不可以用書上的賽局理論來解釋呢? 2️⃣ 檢視 大學捐贈基金的投資組合管理模式(The Endowment Model): 這種由全世界最頂尖大學教授們所設計出的模式，在過去幾年受到許多家族辦公室的追捧，被視為長期投資組合管理的黃金標準。 但是他們的投資表現，真的有跑贏普通人自己簡單製作的【70%股+30%債】組合嗎? 3️⃣ 中國到底有沒有大量拋售美國國債? 這幾周好多客人在問這個問題，老實說，我怎麼知道，難不成中國會通知我一聲嗎? 但有幾個公開的數據，倒是值得您們參考。 我相信看完以後，您們自己就可以做出判斷了。(或是衍生出更多疑問......) 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周一困境 把賽局理論應用在關稅談判: 政客的囚徒困境以及那雙顫抖的手 2) 市場熱話 檢視大學捐贈基金的投資組合管理模式(The Endowment Model) 3) 您知道嗎? 中國到底持有多少美國國債? 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 4月25日(周五) - 平安保險(2318 HK) 美國 - 業績 4月22日(周二) - 特斯拉 (TSLA), 直覺外科 (ISRG) 4月24日(周四) - 谷歌 (GOOGL) 美國 - 經濟數據 4月23日(周三) - 美國4月份製造業及服務業採購經理指數(PMI) 每周一困境 – 把賽局理論應用在關稅談判: 政客的囚徒困境以及那雙顫抖的手 學校教的賽局理論中，有一個經典的案例就是「囚徒困境」。先說結論， 在這樣的困境中，當兩個「理性」的人，都在為「自己」做出最佳選擇的時候，兩個人加總的「集體利益」卻不是最大的。 換句話說，當行為主體面臨選擇的兩難境地時，往往會選擇「相對利己」但卻不利於「集體最大利益」的方式。 囚徒困境怎麼玩? 假設警察抓到了兩個一起犯罪的囚犯，分別是 囚犯A 和 囚犯B 。但警察苦於手上證據不足，必須得想辦法策反他們， 讓至少其中一人認罪 ，才能夠治他們的罪。所以警察就把兩個囚犯隔離開，在兩人無法溝通串供的情況下，分開偵訊。 可能的結果 結果一: 若「兩囚犯」都乖乖認罪  → 那這兩個壞人，因為願意自首，法官認定有教化可能，所以稍微減輕刑期，最終將 各自被判監5年 。 結果二: 若「只有其中一人」認罪 → 唯一認罪的囚犯可以把責任都推到另一人頭上，轉成汙點證人讓自己 無罪獲釋 。另一個還守口如瓶不認罪的就慘啦，將會被 判監20年 。 結果三: 若「兩囚犯」都堅持不認罪 → 那警察也沒辦法，手上的證據只足夠讓兩個人都 各自被輕判1年 。 從讀者的上帝視角來看，如果 兩個囚犯都可以堅持不認罪的話(結果三) ，對他們集體來說是最有利的，對吧? 但如果您是其中一個囚犯，您還會這樣想嗎? Source: https://www1.hkej.com/dailynews/international/article/1117473/%25E5%2585%25A9%25E5%259C%258B%25E9%2599%25B7%25E5%259B%259A%25E5%25BE%2592%25E5%259B%25B0%25E5%25A2%2583 如果您是囚徒 反轉來了， 如果您就是囚犯A，您的最佳策略其實是乖乖認罪! 為什麼呢? 想像一下，站在 您這個囚犯A 的角度: 如果隔壁牢房裡的囚犯B認罪了，那您最好也跟著認罪 ， 才可以把刑期由 20年 (如果最終只有您自己不認罪)，降低為 5年 (兩個人都認罪的情況) 如果隔壁牢房裡的囚犯B堅持不認罪，那您最好的選擇還是認罪 ，把責任都推給B，您就可以 無罪獲釋 。不然要是像他一樣堅持不認的話，還得入監 1年 (兩個人都不認罪的情況) 諷刺的是... 如果兩個囚犯都依照以上的 理性思路 來走，兩個人都會認罪，最終 各入監5年(結果一) ，而不是我們站在上帝視角所選出的 集體最佳解(結果三) 。 在這個假設情境中的 結果一 ，就是理論上所稱的 納許均衡 ( Nash Equilibrium) 。 這也解釋了我們一開始提過的結論: 當行為主體面臨選擇的兩難境地時，往往會選擇「相對利己」但卻不利於「集體最大利益」的方式。 要是應用在關稅談判上... 聰明的讀者應該已經猜到我想講什麼了吧? 如果我們把上述假設中的 囚犯A與囚犯B ，換成 國家A與國家B 。再把 認罪或不認罪 的兩個選項，替換成 加關稅或不加關稅 的決定，那結果也還會是一樣的: 就算兩個國家的領導人都是 理性 的，最終還是會演變成雙方各加關稅，造成貿易戰的結果。 Source: https://lovelychaos.typepad.com/lovelychaos/2011/06/whats-that-tit-for-tat.html 有破解囚徒困境的方法嗎? 嘿嘿，當然有，在人類幾千年的歷史裡， 這種關稅囚徒困境早就不是什麼新鮮事 ，三天兩頭就得發生一次。所以人們早就痛定思痛，發明了幾種解法: 重複賽局之 以牙還牙 真實情況與理論上的囚徒困境還是有點不同的。剛才討論的囚徒困境中，兩個囚徒 只有一次 選擇認不認罪的機會，但現實上，兩個國家在關稅談判的時候，是可以 重複談判好幾次 的，這也帶來第一種破解方法: 理性的國家A 選擇先不加關稅，但明確警告國家B， 「要是你敢出手加關稅，我一定會以牙還牙，奉陪到底!」 藉由這樣明確的警告，讓理性的雙方都有動機維持集體利益最大化(結果三)，而不是只由利己角度出發的納許均衡(結果一)。 抱團取利益 或是藉由跨國抱團機構，例如 世界貿易組織(WTO) 、 歐盟 、或是已經不存在的 北美貿易協定(NAFTA) 等，牽制各國成員，若有人輕舉妄動，則由跨國抱團機構施加罰款。 就是好像小學生一樣，「老師，陳小明打我，嗚嗚嗚」，然後讓老師去處罰陳小明掃廁所一周。 大國之間的博弈，其實說穿了，和小學教室裡的紛爭沒什麼不同。 Source: https://med.stanford.edu/snyderlab/news/2020-stanford-scientists-uncover-genetic-basis-of-a-common-tremo.html 別忘了那雙顫抖的手 但咱們還是別太天真，別妄想用上述的簡單模型，就可以解決目前面對的關稅亂局。 所以如果您讀到這還沒睡著的話，我們就再進入 更深層次的討論 。 延續之前的囚徒困境假設，但稍稍做個改變，就是 囚徒B原來已經垂垂老矣 ，雖然他仍舊 理性 ，但有時候難免會出現一些 無心的失誤 ，例如顫抖的手不小心按錯鍵、或是頭昏昏在警察面前講錯話等等。 這種情況下，囚徒A的戰略必須做出應變! 必須要考慮到囚徒B可能會發生的無心失誤 戰略計畫必須要足夠彈性，以容忍各種無法預期的失誤變化 歷史上 美國與蘇聯之間的冷戰 就是很好的例子。當時美國警告蘇聯不得入侵西柏林，要是蘇聯敢這麼做，美國將發動核武攻擊。蘇聯也回嗆，核武又不是只有你家有，你要是發動攻擊，我就奉陪! 但邏輯上來說，要是蘇聯真的大膽入侵西柏林，木已成舟，美國在生米已煮成熟飯的情況下發動世界核武戰爭，不但救不了西柏林，反而把全世界都搭進去。 所以美國的威脅其實是不太理性的。 不過理不理性都好，反正蘇聯是信了。 因為當時的美國總統雷根年紀也大了，蘇聯還真怕他「顫抖的雙手」會不顧後果地不小心按下總統桌面的核武發射鍵。 雙方就這樣達成了一段時間的恐怖平衡。 原來「瘋狂」也是一種談判策略 所以有時候， 裝瘋扮狂 反而讓您在談判中更具有優勢。 換句話說， 如果您的對手相信您會做出不理性的決策(您那顫抖的手啊)，那對手方將更嚴肅對待您的威脅。 這也是我們這幾周在新聞上反覆見到的現象。 本周台灣的天下雜誌裡，一篇談論「顫抖的手」的文章相當有意思，作者是一位政治大學企業管理系的教授，他建議在執行「裝瘋扮狂式」談判策略的時候，有三個實務重點要謹記(我稍稍改動了文字，加了點我自己的體會): 展現您的決心  – 讓談判對手相信您是充滿情緒地全心投入，所以就算他人覺得您的要求並不合理且有可疑，但因為您是您，您的瘋狂人設就擺在那， 再不合理的要求，因為是您說的，就也變得合理了。 瘋狂只是表面  – 雖然表面上顯得瘋狂，但以瘋狂招數刺激對手的時候，內心還是要適時的自我克制，避免過度激化對手的情緒，反而讓對手也變得瘋狂。畢竟， 這整個談判招數要能成功的關鍵，就是要有一個理性的對手 ! 不然要是兩邊都瘋狂了，那就GG了。 清楚明白接受  – 讓對手清楚明白達成協議將帶來的 好處 ，以及談判破裂將帶來的 損失 ，如此一來，理性的對手將更容易做出決策。 講完了這麼一長串，不知道有沒有讓您更了解 狂人特朗普 的背後盤算? 不過我們也不是特朗普肚子裡的蟲，他實際上是怎麼計畫的，還是一個謎團。雖然他目前為止的作風，都與上述顫抖的手戰略相符， 但在處理中美貿易關係上，他過於激烈的做法，有可能違反第二點的自我克制原則，後續發展仍需密切觀察。 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 檢視大學捐贈基金的投資組合管理模式 (The Endowment Model) 1980年代， 美國耶魯大學率先改革大學捐贈基金 (Endowment Funds)的管理模式， 把傳統的股票+債券投資組合，升級為更分散、更高潛在回報的版本。 他們是怎麼做的呢? 因為大學捐贈基金的永續管理方式，投資期限可以相當長，期間也只有極少的流動性需求，所以捐贈基金的管理團隊，大量利用 另類投資 ，例如對沖基金 (Hedge Funds)、創投基金 (Venture Capital)、私募基金 (Private Equity)等，並將資產分散投資到許多不同的基金中，希望長期能獲得 低波動但高回報 的投資表現。 這種 「捐贈基金投資組合管理模式 (The Endowment Model)」 ，近幾年受到富裕族群的追捧，被奉為投資組合管理的黃金標準。不說笑，我創業一年多，真的有很多客人或是朋友，都積極尋找能用Endowment Model來幫他們做投資的經理人。 我不是對 Endowment Model 有意見，我也贊同這種做法的長期優勢。 但通常當一個趨勢太流行的時候，我們還是得冷靜下來，反思一下優缺點: 基金公司路博邁 (Neuberger Berman) 早前發表了一份 報告 ，把捐贈基金過去十年的投資回報，與一個簡單的70股/30債組合相比較，結果發現，兩者過去十年的回報其實差得不是太遠，而且捐贈基金在2023年及2024年，顯著跑輸。 下圖的綠色柱子是捐贈基金的平均回報，灰色柱子則是70股/30債的投資組合表現。 Source: the Neuber Berman report mentioned below. 路博邁認為，捐贈基金會有如此不盡人意表現的原因有兩個: 過度依賴創投基金(Venture Capital)和私募基金(Private Equity) 過去20年來，捐贈基金的平均資產配置中，大幅提高了這些基金的占比: 創投基金的比重由3.5%增加至12.4%；私募基金的比重則由4.9%增加至17.3%。 但隨著創投和私募基金發展越來越成熟，規模越來越大，可以達到的潛在投資回報也自然隨著降低 (別忘記他們的收費也越來越貴呢!) 雪上加霜的是，一場新冠疫情，徹底打亂了這些私募基金的現金流以及投資節奏。疫情的發生使得他們手上現金乾涸，投資減慢，只好在疫情結束初期的2020/2021年加倍投資補回來。但又不巧碰上聯儲局大手加息抑制通脹，被2022年市場暴跌拖累，私募投資的公司上不了市，手上可以回籠的現金流更稀少，眼睜睜錯過了其後2023/2024年的大牛市。 三個和尚沒水喝? 「分散投資」策略一直是 Endowment Model 最重要的核心理念之一。立意的確良善，但執行上卻有著小小的魔鬼細節 - 雖然已經把資金分散給不同基金經理去投資，但要是這些基金經理「英雄所見略同」的話，那其實底層資產還是沒有被分散到呀! 例如過去兩年，許多基金經理都認為美股七雄已經估值被炒得太貴了，所以都盡量避開這些股票。結果就是令到 捐贈基金 做為最終的投資人客戶，僅只 部分參與 到過去兩年的人工智能股市盛宴而跑輸大市。 最後還是再次強調一下，我們並不是認為 Endowment Model 不好，這篇來自路博邁的報告作者也不是這個意思。只是過去行之有年的捐贈基金管理方式，可能需要隨著時代變遷而做出某些更新。至於實際上是哪些呢? 篇幅所限我們這裡就不談論了，您可以自行參考路博邁的報告，或是直接聯繫我們! 😃 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎? - 中國到底持有多少美國國債? Source: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1305002.shtml?id=11 本周稍早，美國公布了最新的美國國債持倉 數據 : 今年二月份，中國持有7843億美元總值的美國國債，仍舊是美國的第二大外國主權債主(僅次於日本)。 雖然7843億美元好像是個天文數字，但其實只佔了美國國債總額的 不到3% ，也低於美國國債 每日平均交易量的 9000億美元。 所以關於市場上的某些傳聞，說中國藉由拋售美國國債來報復反擊美國關稅，我覺得機會不大，畢竟美國國債市場水很深，中國若真要拋售， 拋得慢了 ，市場很容易吸收； 拋得快了 ，自己的價格損失也不小。 因為政治因素，中國的確有理由減持美國國債持倉，過去十年也已經減了6300億美元。但這樣的減倉，對這麼深的美國國債市場來說，我覺得很難定義是「拋售」。 反而令我更感興趣的問題是，過去十年減的這6300億美元，被用到哪兒去了呢? 😏 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種，「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立，為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務，提供較為標準化的產品，與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢，在服務層面上，根據每位客人的不同需求，提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務；在執行層面上，為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序，利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台，可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Source: https://www.nsnews.com/opinion/greg-perry-cartoon-tariffs-on-tariffs-off-tariffs-on-tariffs-off-10334437 April 13, 2025 Hello! It’s been a wild ride, so let’s take a moment to appreciate that we’ve officially survived  another exhausting week! Where Do We Stand Now? Trump hit pause on his reciprocal tariffs plan - giving it a 90-day timeout - and instead imposed a universal 10% tariff  on all trade partners except China . The US now slaps China with a 145% tariff , while China retaliates with 125% . Neither side seems ready to blink first. Markets went full roller coaster mode: S&P 500  tanked 9%  (week ending Apr 4), then clawed back 5.7%  (week ending Apr 11). Volatility hit levels not seen since 2008 financial crisis. Treasuries in panic mode with US 10-year yield  shot up from 3.99% to 4.49% within 5 days - the biggest weekly surge since 9/11. Fed officials stepped in, reassuring that they would absolutely be prepared" to stabilize the market if conditions become disorderly." Wait, so we're not in disorder yet? And on late Friday, far after market was closed, Trump administration announced exemptions for smartphones, laptops, hard drives, computer processors, memory chips, and semiconductor manufacturing equipment  from the tariffs (including China!). The exemptions cover almost $390 billion in US imports, including more than $101 billion from China, which is about 22% of US imports from China in 2024. Additionally, Trump hinted at potential exemptions to the 10% tariff for certain US trading partners, while simultaneously asserting that this rate was "pretty close" to a floor for countries negotiating trade deals. If the logic feels hard to follow, you’re not alone - I’m struggling to make sense of it too! What’s in this week’s newsletter? 1️⃣ Money on the Move: Where Investors Are Headed Next?   A summary of notable inflows and outflows in the past week. 2️⃣ Should we rebalance now?  Many investors are looking to take advantage of this market shift to rebalance their portfolios. Here’s a look at historical portfolio rebalancing simulations  and some ideas to help guide your approach. Category Contents for this Week 1) Flows of the Week Money on the Move: Where Investors Are Headed Next? 2) Market Buzz Should We Rebalance Now? Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings Apr 17 (Thu) - China Unicom (0762.HK) China/HK - Eco Data Apr 16 (Wed) - China 1Q GDP US - Earnings Apr 14 (Mon) - Goldman Sachs (GS) Apr 15 (Tue) - Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Apr 17 (Thu) - United Health (UNH), Netflix (NFLX), Blackstone (BX) US – Eco Data Apr 16 (Wed) - US March Retail Sales Apr 17 (Thu) - Fed Chair Powell Speech Other Events Apr 16 (Wed) - Bank of Canada Rates Meeting Apr 17 (Thu) - European Central Bank Rates Meeting Flows of the Week – Money on the Move: Where Investors Are Headed Next? Equities Based on EPFR Global Data (cited by Bank of America for the week ending April 9), US stocks saw a whopping $48.9 billion  in inflows. But here’s the real story - investors made their preferences crystal clear. Style: Passive Funds like ETFs saw $70.3 billion of inflows , while actively managed funds saw $21.3 billion in redemptions - a sharp vote in favor of passive investing. Sector: According to a Morningstar article , investors are laser-focused on Large Cap ETFs - pumping cash into funds that track S&P 500 index (like SPY  and VOO ) while pulling out of Financials and Energy sectors. The trend is clear: big, broad, and liquid over sector-specific plays.   Source: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/etf-flows-where-investors-put-their-money-amid-market-volatility Fixed Income Similar to equities, the same data set by EPFR Global Data for the week ending Apr 9 suggested a clear preference among different fixed income instruments: Treasuries had the biggest weekly inflow ever at $18.8 billion Investment Grade Bonds had its 1st outflow in 76 weeks at $12 billion High Yield had its 3rd week of outflow at $15.9 billion Emerging Market Debt outflow resumed at $3.6 billion However, a massive wave of inflows into US Treasuries should, in theory, push yields down. But instead, yields have surged , signaling something deeper at play. This is what’s keeping investors up at night. US Treasury Yield has long been the world's risk-free rate , the bedrock of global financial stability. If that status starts cracking, it could trigger a domino effect across markets, sending shockwaves worldwide. As market uncertainty deepens, some investors are discreetly reallocating. German bunds are becoming the new go-to safe haven , with yields remaining remarkably stable this week while US 10-year yields have surged over 40 basis points. Source: Bloomberg Chart of US 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Change Source: Bloomberg Other Asset Classes For the week ending Apr 9th Gold saw $1.8 billion of inflow Crypto saw $500m of outflow Foreign Domiciled US-Focused Funds saw a $6.5 billion outflow as foreign confidence on the quality and leadership of US assets has been damaged. Source: Bloomberg For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – Should We Rebalance Now? Several clients have been asking whether this market correction presents an opportunity to add to equities  and rebalance their portfolios . To tackle this million-dollar question , we need to break it down into two parts: What’s the most rational way to rebalance? How should rebalancing be executed if there's a bear market coming? What is the most rational way to rebalance? There are 2 types of "rebalancing" here: Standard Rebalancing is to adjust the asset class weightings in the portfolio back to their original ratio, whereas Tactical Rebalancing aims to reshape the portfolio by adding stocks when they become cheaper. I've been reading tons of articles on portfolio rebalancing recently. For Standard Rebalancing, here's the key takeaway: Rebalancing shouldn’t be too frequent, nor too infrequent. According to historical simulations done by Vanguard , the best rebalancing frequency is once a year . Why? Because markets are often momentum-driven - if you rush to rebalance at the first sign of every dip or uptick, chances are you won’t be trading at the best levels . Source: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/rational_rebalancing_analytical_approach_to_multiasset_portfolio_rebalancing.pdf Tactical rebalancing is also top of mind for many clients, particularly those who have been underweighting stocks for an extended period . However, with ongoing uncertainty and no clear resolution to the US-China trade war, a carefully planned execution strategy  is more critical than ever. How should rebalancing be executed if there's a bear market coming? How do we make smart moves if there really is a bear market coming our way? Here are some numbers to keep in mind: Since 1945, the S&P 500 has faced 15 bear markets  (defined as declines of 20% or more): Average bear market decline: 32% , vs. our current peak-to-trough drop of 18.9%   (from 6144 on Feb 19, 2025, to 4983 on Apr 8, 2025 - technically not a bear market yet) Average time to hit bottom:   11 months  vs. where we are now - less than 2 months in Average time to recover: 1.7 years What history tells us is that the biggest risk in a bear market isn’t necessarily picking the wrong stocks. It's reacting poorly when fear takes over. There are a few ways to tackle that: Stick to high-conviction investments - companies you know well and believe in long-term, ones you wouldn’t panic over even if they dropped 20% overnight. Have a plan, and don't let emotions hijack it . For example, set fixed investment amounts at pre-determined intervals, or establish clear profit-taking and loss-cutting levels and stick to them. Having trouble crafting a plan that truly fits your needs? Jadewell Family Office  is here to help - let’s brainstorm together and make sure we stay on track toward your financial goals! Source: https://inquisitivefinance.com/what-is-the-most-important-organ-in-investing/ For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.

Source: https://www.nsnews.com/opinion/greg-perry-cartoon-tariffs-on-tariffs-off-tariffs-on-tariffs-off-10334437 2025年4月13日 您好! 讓我們互相拍拍肩膀，慶祝又熬過了筋疲力盡的一周! 現在的最新情況是? 特朗普終於按下了暫停鍵，給了他奇特的「對等關稅計畫」90天的緩衝期，並把除了中國以外國家的關稅降為10%。 但中美關係仍然膠著，美國對中國仍然有145%的關稅，而中國則對美國以125%的關稅施以報復。世界兩大強權相爭，搞得全球金融市場都亂了套。 美股標普五百指數: 先是在截至4月4日那周大跌了9%，然後上周又大幅反彈了5.7%。股市波動率暴升至2008年金融海嘯以來最高的水平。 美國國債市場 更是出現恐慌，美國基準10年期國債收益率，在短短一周內由 3.99%暴漲至4.49% ，是美國自911恐怖襲擊以來，最大的單周漲幅。 美國聯儲局官員周五終於出聲， 表示如果市場失去秩序，美聯儲將「絕對準備好」採取穩定措施。 等等，所以現在這樣還不算失去秩序就是了? 然後在美國時間的周五深夜，特朗普政府又意外宣布了對 智能手機、筆記本電腦、硬盤、處理器、記憶體晶片以及半導體製造設備 實施 關稅豁免 (也包括來自中國的進口!) 這些豁免涵蓋了將近3900億美元的商品，其中包括超過1010億美元的中國商品， 占2024年美國自中國進口總額的22%。 此外，特朗普暗示可能對某些國家提供關稅豁免，但他同時強調，目前的10%關稅已經「相當接近」與各國談判貿易協議的最低門檻。 如果您看完以上的新聞，總是感到哪裡邏輯怪怪的話，不是您的問題，因為我也是!! 大家都是!! 🤨 本周周報講什麼呢? 1️⃣ 資金流向: 過去一周市場持倉變化相當劇烈，哪些資產吸引了投資者，哪些又被無情地拋售，我們為您梳理最值得關注的資金流向。 2️⃣ 現在該調整投資組合嗎?  面對市場波動，許多投資者正考慮趁此機會重新調整組合中的資產配置。我們將分享一些歷史數據及經驗，希望可以為您的投資策略帶來一些靈感。 目錄 本周內容 1) 資金流向 市場風向標: 資金往哪兒走? 2) 市場熱話 我該調整投資組合資產配置嗎? 未來一周值得關注的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 4月17日(周四) - 中國聯通 (0762.HK) 中國/香港 - 經濟數據 4月16日(周三) - 中國第一季GDP 美國 - 業績 4月14日(周一) - Goldman Sachs (GS) 4月15日(周二) - Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 4月17日(周四) - United Health (UNH), Netflix (NFLX), Blackstone (BX) 美國 - 經濟數據 4月16日(周三) - 美國零售銷售數據 4月17日(周四) - 聯儲局主席鮑威爾發表講話 其他大事 4月16日(周三) - 加拿大央行議息會議 4月17日(周四) - 歐洲央行議息會議 資金流向 – 市場風向標: 資金往哪兒走? 美國股票市場 根據美國銀行引述的數據，截至4月9日的一周， 美國股票錄得489億美元的淨流入 。但投資者的好惡相當分明: 以風格區分: 被動型基金(例如ETF)收到了703億美元的資金 淨流入 ，但由基金經理人操盤打理的主動型基金，則慘被 淨流出 213億美元。 由此可見，在夢想抄底市場的時候，流動性最高、成本最低、透明度又高的ETF才是投資人的首選。 以類別區分: 據研究機構晨星的 分析 ，在流入ETF的資金中，絕大部分都去了 追蹤大型股 的ETF，尤其是追蹤標普五百指數的 SPY 及 VOO 。與此同時，投資人則撤離 金融 和 能源 板塊。 資金趨勢很明顯: 要穩健、要大包圍、要流動性、要又便宜又快! Source: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/etf-flows-where-investors-put-their-money-amid-market-volatility 債券市場 根據同一份美國銀行數據，截至4月9日的一周，投資人對於債券市場裡的不同工具，也有明顯的偏好: 美國國庫債券 - 錄得史上最高單周 淨流入 188億美元 投資評級債券 - 76周以來首次錄得單周 淨流出 ，金額為120億美元 高收益債券(垃圾債券) - 連續第三周單周 淨流出 ，金額為159億美元 新興市場債券 - 再次出現單周 淨流出 ，金額為36億美元 讀者可能會感到奇怪，不對啊，如果美國國庫債券有這麼高的淨流入，那麼應該會推高國庫債價格，使得收益率降低才對。為什麼美國國庫債收益率反而飆升呢? 說老實話，我也不知道。 在市場急劇波動的時候，許多變化無法以常理解釋。背後可能的原因有很多，例如資金流向的紀錄方法侷限(例如不同年期的國庫債有的被狂買、有的被拋售)、對沖基金拆倉導致的特殊價格波動、或是外國政府拋售美國國庫債的陰謀論等等，需要時間慢慢釐清。 然而，更重要的是， 美國國庫債收益率作為全球金融市場的「無風險利率」指標，是絕大部分金融工具多年以來的定價基準。要是這個無風險利率不再「無風險」了，那對全球市場帶來的骨牌效應，將會是相當驚人的。 因此，部分投資者已經開始將目光轉向 德國國債 (German Bunds) 。在上周美國國債收益率暴漲40個基點的時候，德國的十年期國債收益率 幾乎沒有波動 ，使得兩國國債收益率的差距大幅飆升。 美國與德國國債收益率的差距歷史圖 Source: Bloomberg 美國十年期國債收益率的單周波動歷史圖 - 可以看到上周的單周波動，幅度大到可以與歷史上幾個著名的股災媲美，例如911之後的經濟衰退、網路泡沫，甚至亞洲金融風暴時期，俄羅斯違約造成的LTCM基金爆倉等等。 Source: Bloomberg 其他資產類別 截至4月9日的一周 黃金 錄得18億美元 淨流入 虛擬貨幣 錄得5億美元 淨流出 海外註冊的美股基金 遭遇65億美元的 淨流出 (如下圖)，反映出美國以外的投資者，對於美國的信心減弱。 Source: Bloomberg For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 我該調整投資組合資產配置嗎? 市場這麼波動，很多客戶也在思考，該不該趁這次機會， 調整投資組合資產配置 (rebalance) ， 加點股票 呢? 如此困難的問題，需要分成兩個部分回答: 什麼才是理性的「資產再平衡」策略? 如果熊市真的來了，應該怎麼執行再平衡? 什麼才是理性的資產再平衡策略? 「資產再平衡(rebalance)」通常有兩個意思， 第一種可以稱為傳統教科書式的 標準再平衡 ，也就是定期將投資組合裡的資產類別權重，調整回一開始的比例，以確保投資組合的風險敞口與最初設計組合時的目標一致，保持長期穩定性。 第二種則可視為 戰略再平衡 ，也就是趁著股票價格變得較為便宜的時候，主動增加股票的配置，改變整個投資組合的性質，期望獲得較高的回報。 先講講 第一種 - 為了寫這篇周報，我閱讀了大量關於再平衡的研究文章。這些文章都是以歷史數據，試圖推導出對於 標準再平衡 目標的最優解法，不同研究機構得出的結果也相當類似。 幫您省時間，直接把答案分享給您: 多間研究機構根據歷史數據模擬出的結果顯示， 再平衡這件事，不能太常做，也不能不做。 以 Vanguard 這篇文章為例，最佳的標準再平衡頻率，是 一年一次 。為什麼呢? 因為市場有「動能」，簡單的說法就是， 跌市得讓他跌一陣子，漲市也得讓他漲一陣子 。所以太過頻繁的再平衡，看到一點漲跌的苗頭就急著追漲殺跌，在大部分的情況下，都會買賣在一個較差的價位。 如下圖所示，X軸是各種不同的再平衡頻率，Y軸則是再平衡所帶來的額外長期回報。由綠色線可看出， 「一年一次(Annual)」的再平衡 ，可以為投資組合帶來最高的額外長期回報，而 「每日(Daily)」再平衡 做法所帶來的好處最少，甚至不如乾脆別搞(Never Rebalance)。 Source: https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/rational_rebalancing_analytical_approach_to_multiasset_portfolio_rebalancing.pdf 至於 第二種 ， 戰略再平衡 ，也是許多投資者高度關注的目標，尤其是那些 長期低配股票的 投資組合。 但如同之前所說，特朗普做事的邏輯一言難盡，可以說是毫無章法脈絡可循。在這樣的市場情況下， 一個深思熟慮的謹慎執行策略 ，才是最重要的。 如果熊市真的來了，應該怎麼執行再平衡? 特朗普如果真的帶來了熊市，再平衡策略應該如何執行呢? 這裡有幾個關鍵數據請您參考: 自1945年以來，標普五百指數經歷了15次熊市(定義為市場下跌超過20%): 熊市平均跌幅: 32% ，而我們目前經歷的最大跌幅只有18.9% (從2025年2月19日的6144點，跌至2025年4月8日的4983點，尚未正式進入熊市) 觸底平均耗時: 11個月 ，如果上述2月中的6144點真的是本輪周期高位的話，那我們才剛剛開始不到兩個月呢 恢復平均耗時: 1.7年 歷史告訴我們，在熊市中，最大的風險不是選擇了錯誤的股票，而是在恐慌情緒支配下，做出的錯誤決策! 那要如何避免這樣的陷阱呢? 只做有信心的投資 - 信心來自於真正了解所投資企業的本質，且擁有相同的願景。選擇那些即使一夜之間跌了20%，您仍然有信念長期持有的優質公司股票。 在開始投資前，制定獲利了結或止損計畫，並嚴格執行 - 例如，制定固定投資額度，並不受市場變化地按照預定時間點投資；提前確定合理的利潤水平及最大可接受虧損範圍，當達到目標便執行，避免讓情緒干擾理性決策。 還是不知道怎麼制定最適合的投資策略嗎? 或是不相信自己可以獨立理性執行，需要一個隨時商談的夥伴嗎? 今天就找瑜新家族辦公室談談吧! Source: https://inquisitivefinance.com/what-is-the-most-important-organ-in-investing/ For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種，「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立，為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務，提供較為標準化的產品，與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢，在服務層面上，根據每位客人的不同需求，提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務；在執行層面上，為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序，利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台，可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.