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- Vol 31 - - After the Great Heat?
June 29, 2025 Time flies - half of 2025 has already zipped by! And guess what? This little newsletter of ours has marched on, rain or shine, for four whole months! Now as we slide into summer vacation mode ( aka: school’s out, mom’s maxed out 👩👧☀️), the newsletter will take a short break. But don’t worry - we’re still alive and kicking on Facebook , IG , and WeChat ! That said… rumor has it we might’ve been a little too active on social media 😅 One reader even complained they were seeing our posts every. single. day. (Sorry but not sorry - we just have a lot of feelings to post about.) Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, we’ve got some big plans brewing, like: 📍 Hong Kong Fintech Week x Startmeuphk Festival 2025 🗓️ November 3–4 🗺️ Location : Wan Chai Convention & Exhibition Centre Jadewell Family Office will have a cozy little booth there, so come say hi - we’d love to catch up in person! 🪄 Even while the newsletter naps, our brainwaves and banter are still going strong. Inspiration never goes on vacation! 🪄 What's for the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ J.P. Morgan Asia Hedge Fund Forum We joined this fascinating forum last week and walked away with lots of insights: 📌 How do seasoned pros time their entries into the market? 📌 And in the tidal wave of AI, which hidden gems might you be overlooking? 2️⃣ BlackRock’s Latest Family Office Report BlackRock unveiled six major trends on how family offices are rewriting the rules . Some had us nodding enthusiastically 🤓, while others had us doing a full-on eye roll 🙄. What’s your take? J.P. Morgan Asia Hedge Fund Forum 1) How do seasoned pros time their entries into the market? One hedge fund manager shared this classic trader truth : "We love market volatility - after all, that’s where the money is. But let’s be real - no one’s on the winning side forever." Then he tossed out a hypothetical that got everyone’s ears perked up 🎧: "Imagine this: Before the war broke out, Israel somehow called you. 'Hey, we’re about to bomb Iran,' he says. 'Adjust your portfolio - now!' What would you do?" If you're like most investors, you'd probably panic-sell your stocks , load up on gold and oil , and brace for impact . Seems like a no-brainer, right? Except… looking back from today, those trades would've been completely off. Well - n ot entirely wrong , but definitely not the windfall you pictured scoring off your “superior intel.” So what went sideways? Simple: Markets change. Constantly. 🌀 The macro landscape shifts. 📊 Risk appetites evolve. 🧠 Investor mindsets transform. What worked before might now backfire . Clinging to old playbooks can blind you to new realities. And that same hedge fund manager left us with a killer line: "The world may change, but your mind must stay sharp. When your stomach is full of butterflies and you feel like you just want to puke everything out - that’s probably the moment to strike.” Basically, it’s Buffett’s “be greedy when others are fearful” ... just recast from a calm house in Omaha to the blood-soaked battlefield of a trading floor. But let’s face it - not everyone can be Buffett. And not everyone wants to live on the edge of puking everyday. 🤮 So here’s my more grounded take: Chill out, bro. The wise trader plays the long game. Don’t overreact, don’t overtrade. Markets are a marathon, not Fast & Furious . 🏁📉 2) Hidden AI Winners You Might Have Overlooked Another hedge fund manager shared a few unexpected plays in the AI mega-trend - names I hadn’t been paying much attention to either: 1️⃣ United States – Everyone’s been buzzing about the AI supply chain, but here’s what’s flying under the radar: old-school storage hardware (yes, hard drives )! With AI generating massive volumes of output - text, images, video - you need somewhere to put it all. 2️⃣ China – Unlike the U.S., China’s large language models are often open-source and cost-friendly . The real value? Whoever owns the distribution channels that connect those models to end-users. 3️⃣ Europe – As data centers sprout up across the continent, one big question looms: Is there enough power to support them all? Hedge funds are leaning into Europe - with everything from defense titans to utility plays lighting up their pockets. For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. BlackRock's Latest Family Office Report 📝 Fresh Off the Press: BlackRock has just released its latest Global Family Office Report (download link here) , and the results serve up six interesting takeaways: 🌍 1. Top Concern: Geopolitical Chaos A whopping 84% of family offices cited “rapidly shifting geopolitical dynamics” as the No. 1 variable in future asset allocation. Global chessboard vibes? Absolutely. Risk is the new constant. 💸 2. The Alternative Investment Headache 72% of respondents called out “ high and opaque fees” as a major pain point when it comes to Alternative Investments -up from just 40% last round. The takeaway? Investors are no longer quietly tolerating the cost of complexity. 🧐 3. Private Credit: Love It or Leave It 51% of family offices are bullish on private credit funds...But 21% remain skeptical. To be honest, blind faith in low mark-to-market volatility or low historic default rates seems a little optimistic to us. Private credit has grown fast - maybe too fast - and not every fund is worth the risks. Make sure to do your due diligence before investing! ⛔ 🚆 4. Infrastructure Funds Are Having a Moment With built-in inflation protection and steady cash flows , infrastructure is hot . 75% of family offices are leaning in, while just 5% are pessimistic. Airports, energy grids, railways - it’s the new family office favorite. 🤝 5. External Partnerships: The Smart Outsource As things get more complex, family offices are realizing: we can’t do it all alone . Specialized analysis? Deep sector plays? Time to phone an external expert! (Like us, Jadewell Family Office… just saying 😉) 🤖 6. AI: Love to Invest, Not Ready to Use Everyone agrees AI is “the future.” But in practice? Tech hurdles, talent gaps, and plain-old cultural resistance are slowing adoption. The irony: family offices are eager to invest in AI companies, but rarely use the tech themselves. Talk about admiring the future from a safe distance! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. What to watch for the coming week? China - Eco Data Jun 30 (Mon) - China Manufacturing PMI for June US - Eco Data Jul 1 (Tue) - FOMC Chair Powell Speech Jul 1 (Tue) - US Manufacturing PMI for June Jul 3 (Thu) - US Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate Others Jun 30 (Mon) - UK 1Q GDP Jul 1 (Tue) - BoE Bailey Speech, ECB Lagarde Speech About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- 第三十一篇 - 大暑之後?
2025年6月29日 不知不覺,2025年就已經過了一半啦,這份周報也風雨無阻地寫了四個月啦! 😱 進入暑假模式,周報也會暫停一陣子(沒辦法,學校放假,老母親很辛苦),但這段時間我們還是會努力更新 臉書 、 IG 還有 微信 的! 不過⋯據說社交媒體更新太頻繁,有讀者開始「投訴」每天都看到我們的貼文!? 🫨 展望2025下半年,我們有幾個宏大的計劃要開展,例如: 📍 香港金融科技週(Hong Kong Fintech Week) 🗓️時間:11月3–4日, 🗺️地點:灣仔會展 屆時 瑜新家族辦公室 也會有個小而美的攤位喔,歡迎大家到場來找我們聊聊吧! 🪄 就算周報短暫告假,我們的靈感和觀察永不打烊!🪄 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 摩根大通亞洲對沖基金論壇: 我們上周參加了這場有趣的論壇,吸收滿滿: 📌 怎麼抓入市時機? 📌 AI 大趨勢中,您可能錯過了哪些潛力股? 2️⃣ 貝萊德(BlackRock) 最新家族辦公室調研報告: 貝萊德整理出了六大資產配置的趨勢,有些我們點頭如搗蒜 🤓,有些我們則忍不住翻了個白眼 🙄!您又怎麼看呢? 對沖基金經理怎麼說? 1) 怎麼抓入市時機? 在論壇上,有位對沖基金經理說,雖然他們愛極了 市場波動 ,因為 有波動才有獲利的機會 ,但是 沒有人可以永遠站在贏的那一邊 。 舉例來說, 如果因為某種不明的原因,上周在「戰爭開始前」,以色列情報頭子突然打電話給你,跟你說他們要轟炸伊朗了,讓你把手上的投資組合趕快調整一下,你會怎麼做呢? 按照過去的思維,正常人得到這種 高級的內線消息 之後,就會急著 賣股票 ,然後 買黃金 、 買油 對吧? 但是站在今天這個時間點回望, 這幾個動作都是錯的 - 或者不能說全錯,但一定沒有達到你心目中,靠著這個內線消息大賺一筆的效果。 那是為什麼呢? 因為市場永遠在變。🌀 宏觀局勢變了、風險偏好變了、投資人結構變了、情緒也變了。所以, 舊方法不再保證有用,甚至帶來盲點 。 那位基金經理最後說了句令人難忘的話: 這也沒辦法, 世界會變,但心不能亂 。只要記得一句老祖宗的話:『當你怕得要死、整個肚子都是蝴蝶在飛(butterflies in the stomach),緊張到快吐血的時候,就是出手的時機!』 這句話不就是翻版的「別人恐懼我貪婪」嗎?只是換了語氣、換了場景, 從巴菲特的平靜鄉間生活,走進了交易員的修羅場。 但話說回來,不是每個人都可以成為巴菲特,也不是每個人都願意天天站在吐血邊緣 🤮。 我的建議比較實際一點: Chill out, bro ! 君子愛財,取之有道;君子炒股,不急不躁 。 投資是場馬拉松,可不是頭文字D啊 ! 2) AI 大趨勢中,您可能錯過了那些潛力股? 另一位基金經理則分享了幾個AI的潛在贏家,是我自己本來也沒有留意到的。 1) 美國 - 整個AI供應鏈在市場上都已經被充分地討論了,但是AI生產出來的大量作品,仍然需要傳統的硬碟來儲存,這也會對 傳統記憶體硬碟市場 帶來爆炸性的增長。 2) 中國 - 與美國不同,中國的大型語言模型價格都 不貴而且開源 ,在這樣的環境下,誰掌握了這些模型到終端消費者之間的 銷售渠道 ,才是關鍵 ! 3) 歐洲 - 隨著越來越多的數據中心在歐洲建起,歐洲是否有 足夠電力供應 更是受到關注。今年至今,許多對沖基金都在歐洲股票上獲利良多, 從國防工業股到電力股,都是有趣的投資標的 。 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 貝萊德家族辦公室調研報告 貝萊德 (BlackRock) 剛剛發布了對於全球家族辦公室 最新的調研報告 (此處可下載) ,有六項有趣的觀察: 🌍 1) 最擔心的事 : 有高達84%的受訪家辦表示, 「急遽變化中的地緣政治格局」 ,是他們在未來資產配置的時候,最優先考慮的變量。 💸 2) 關於另類投資 : 有 72% 的受訪家辦,認為 另類投資(例如私募基金與對沖基金) 的「 高昂收費」 ,是此類投資最令人頭痛的地方。這個比例比上次調研時的 40% 高出許多,顯示另類投資在蓬勃發展的同時,投資人對於他們 「不透明且過於進取的收費模式」 ,已經不再逆來順受。 🧐 3) 私募信貸基金 : 有 51%的受訪家辦看好 「私募信貸基金」這個資產類別,但也 有21%的受訪家辦抱持保留態度 ,投資者取向相當兩極。 我們認為,部分家族辦公室的確有需要配置在此類高收益的資產,但是僅因為 報價頻率較低 ,就認為 此類資產的波動率低 🧐 ;或是因 為歷史違約率低 ,就認為 此類資產相當安全 🧐 - 那這樣的想法,也未免太過一廂情願。 ⛔⛔ 私募信貸這幾年發展過快,不排除有些魚目混珠的基金趁機來渾水摸魚,建議若您想投資的話,一定要 審慎選擇基金公司 ! 🚆 4) 基礎建設基金 : 「基礎建設基金」既可帶來 長期穩定現金流 ,又可作為 通脹對沖 ,因此在家辦圈子中越來越受歡迎,有 高達75%的受訪家辦看好 ,只有5%的受訪家辦持保留態度。 🤝 5) 與外部夥伴的合作 : 隨著 家辦業務的複雜程度 越來越高,許多家族辦公室發現, 內部人才儲備 已經負荷不了某些 需要特定專業的分析工作 ,因此願意尋求與 外部專家 的合作, 例如瑜新家族辦公室(自己說)! 🤖 6) AI在家辦中的應用 : 大家都承認AI是未來,但是在實務上, 技術、組織、文化、心理因素 等障礙,都使得AI應用 無法迅速落實 在家辦日常運營中。 說來有趣,大部分的家辦都很願意投資AI相關的企業,但卻不願意親身體驗AI的魅力。 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國 - 經濟數據 6月30日(周一) - 中國6月份製造業PMI 美國 - 經濟數據 7月1日(周二) - 美國聯儲局主席 Powell 發言 7月1日(周二) - 美國6月份製造業PMI 7月3日(周四) - 美國6月份非農就業數據、失業率 其他大事 6月30日(周一) - 英國第一季GDP 7月1日(周二) - 英國央行行長 Bailey 發言、歐洲央行行長 Lagarde 發言 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種,「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立,為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務,提供較為標準化的產品,與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢,在服務層面上,根據每位客人的不同需求,提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務;在執行層面上,為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序,利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台,可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- 第三十篇 - 花兒都到哪裡去了? (Where Have All the Flowers Gone?)
2025年6月21日 憑君莫話封侯事,一將功成萬骨枯。 記得上個月與某大型家族辦公室的投資總監閒聊,他還開玩笑說:「美國經濟衰退有什麼好怕的?打一場仗就行了!」- 他指的是所謂的 軍事工業主義(Military Industrialism) - 用國防支出來帶動經濟復甦,美國可是歷史上出名的玩家呢! 言猶在耳,就真的發生戰爭了!雖然這次似乎不是美國主動挑起的,但是美國的角色絕對舉足輕重! 本周我們整理了多家國際媒體的分析, 解讀戰局可能的發展脈絡,並探討對油價與市場的影響 📊 中東戰火又起,這次將如何收場? 1) 美國在這場戰爭中,扮演什麼角色? 2) 最終將如何收場? 3) 那股票市場會如何反應呢? Source: https://theinitium.com/opinion/20250617-iran-israel-war 1) 美國在這場戰爭中,扮演什麼角色? 以伊戰火越演越烈, 白宮宣稱 會在兩周內決定 是否參與攻打伊朗, 為什麼美國的參與如此受到矚目呢? 💥 以軍空襲不斷,只為擊破伊朗核心命脈 💥 以色列連日對伊朗展開激烈轟炸,劍指伊朗最神秘的 核武研發計畫 。目前伊朗的防空系統已經幾近癱瘓,整個領空形同敞開的大門,但更棘手的挑戰還在後頭: 伊朗最大的濃縮鈾提煉基地位於 「福爾多(Fordow)」 ,位於深山底下90米的掩體中。 全球只有美軍具備足以攻破的武器 - 傳說中的 GBU-57 巨型鑽地炸彈 (僅有約20枚),以及能夠攜帶該炸彈的 B2轟炸機 (僅有21架),可以穿透土壤、岩石和水泥,深入地底60米引爆,有機會摧毀這個基地。 有學者估計, 伊朗只需要幾週的時間,就可以在福爾多基地,將目前儲存的濃縮鈾,轉換為233公斤的「武器級鈾」, 足以製造9枚核武器。 而只要福爾多基地沒有被消滅,以色列這次的轟炸努力,最多也只能把伊朗的核武計畫延後一年半載, 伊朗還是有機會在未來幾年內生產出第一枚核彈頭 。 Source: https://www.chinesedaily.com/article/detail-646337.html Source: X 🧨 為何遲遲不炸?四大考量讓美國進退兩難 🧨 雖然伊朗的天空已經失守,特朗普理論上可以趁此良機,直接炸爆福爾多基地,幾小時搞定困擾多年的伊朗核武問題。 但是連特朗普這樣的狂人,在做出這種決定之前,也有許多考量: ☢️ 福爾多一旦爆炸,恐釋放無法控制的 核輻射 🪖 中東美軍兵力分布有限,難以後續 控制現場 🗣️ 伊拉克戰爭的記憶猶新,美國內部 反戰聲浪依舊強烈 🌋 伊朗堅持「不停火就不談判」的立場,若真把伊朗逼到牆角, 整個中東局勢恐將全面失控 題外話🛫:誰才是美國的「優先戰場」? 為了迅速回應中東局勢,特朗普比原定行程早一天離開G7峰會,但原本那天他是要會見 烏克蘭總統 的..... 這樣的調整不免讓人聯想:對特朗普而言,那場戰線膠著的 俄烏戰爭 ,似乎已失去吸引力;反而是 中東這個風起雲湧的新戰場 ,更可能成為他眼中美國可以 「大展拳腳」 的舞台。🌍⚔️ 2) 最終將如何收場? 根據彭博社專欄作者的推測,眼下中東局勢有三種可能的走向: 🟥 劇本一:開打!美軍出手摧毀福爾多,油價暴衝 特朗普遲遲等不到伊朗坐上談判桌 ,於是拍板出兵, 轟炸福爾多基地 ,引爆 全面對抗 。伊朗隨即反擊,波及美國在中東的盟友及資產。 作者推測,美軍最終還是會取得上風,而 油價的走勢將取決於伊朗有多快放棄掙扎 ,達成最終停火協議。 📈 在最極端的情況下,伊朗將封鎖 霍爾木茲海峽(全球最重要的石油運輸通道之一) ,油價飆破 $130 美元/桶 ,全球通脹壓力爆棚,市場對聯準會降息的希望徹底幻滅。 🟨 劇本二:不用打,靠壓力把伊朗逼上談判桌 美國不動武 ,而是透過外交、經濟與情報手段讓伊朗感受到前所未有的壓力,迫使其承諾暫停核計畫,以色列見好就收, 戰火迅速降溫 。 🕊️ 這是所有人夢寐以求的完美收場 。若上帝保佑可以成真,油價將有望回落至 $65 美元/桶 ,大家只要繼續擔心產油國供應過剩就好 (現在才發現這是一個多麼幸福的擔憂)。 🤔 可惜,熟悉伊朗談判風格的專欄作者也直言:要伊朗如此順從地吞下敗仗, 難度真的很高 。 🟦 劇本三:打不下來,也不甘願退 - 拖泥帶水的戰爭 以伊雙方都不讓步,但看在美國的面子上,也努力 控制不讓戰況升級 。雖然飛彈還是飛來飛去,但會 避開對方的重要能源設施 。 🥀 對伊朗而言,這是一個 保留顏面的下台階 ;對以色列來說,美國不挺,也難以強攻到底。 油價在這種情境下將可能盤旋於 $70 美元/桶 附近,像俄烏戰爭初期一樣,大家一開始緊張兮兮, 最後卻逐漸冷感。 3) 那股票市場會如何反應呢? 本周周報開頭提到的 「軍事工業主義」 ,是真的有歷史佐證的套路。 最經典的例子,莫過 於 二戰(1939–1945): 歐洲 烽火連天,而隔著大西洋的 美國 ,卻靠著 軍工全面動員 與 政府財政擴張 ,擺脫1930年代的大蕭條陰霾。 失業率從25%狂降至不足2% 。女性與少數族群湧入職場,GDP噴發,美國就此踢下英國, 躍升為世界霸主 。 👑 但接下來的 越戰(1955–1975) ,劇本就沒這麼美了。 開打初期,軍工發展及政府開支雖然短暫刺激了經濟,但為了同時支應 戰爭 與 國內社會福利計畫 ,美國政府開啟印鈔機,轟隆隆不停印錢,使得通脹飆升。加上 1973年石油危機 夾擊,最終讓美國經濟陷入 惡名昭彰的「滯脹」泥沼 :物價飛天,景氣卻停滯。😓 直到1979年,聯儲局主席沃克爾使出 「沃克爾衝擊 (Volcker Shock)」 絕招, 暴力拉高利率 至20%以上,用極痛苦的方式才終於遏止通脹惡夢。💣📉 再把時間快轉到讀者都還歷歷在目的: 俄烏戰爭 。 這場戰爭 2022年2月24日 開打,市場本以為會崩,但 美股(標普五百指數)只跌了不到3% ,3月初就見底了,還來了波 報復性反彈 。要等到2022下半年, 美國通脹居高不下 、聯儲局鷹派加息,美股才開始認真修正,並於 當年10月見底 。 然後呢? 2022年11月30日,ChatGPT橫空出世 ,開啟 AI奇幻牛市 ,美股狂飆至今。 俄烏戰爭還在打,但市場早就 「who cares」 了。🧠🚀 那這次的 中東戰爭 呢?美股會迎來系統性風險還是通脹風險?還會有下一個 ChatGPT 出現,來救贖受苦受難的股民嗎? 我們得看接下來幾點: 📌 特朗普的戰略佈局 會怎麼走? 📌下周三 美光(Micron)財報 是否續寫AI神話? 📌還有, 記得鎖定瑜新家辦的 臉書 與 IG , 我們會第一時間分享最新觀察 想討論在這樣的宏觀波動性下,您的投資組合應該如何因應調整嗎? 今天就連絡我們,一起討論最適合您的方案吧! 💼📈 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 美國 - 經濟數據 6月23日(周一) - 美國製造業與服務業PMI 6月24日(周二) - 美國聯儲局主席 Powell 發言 6月26日(周四) - 美國第一季GDP 6月27日(周五) - 美國核心PCE物價指數 美國 - 業績 6月25日(周三) - 美光 (MU) 6月27日(週五) - Nike (NKE) For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種,「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立,為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務,提供較為標準化的產品,與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢,在服務層面上,根據每位客人的不同需求,提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務;在執行層面上,為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序,利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台,可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- Vol 30 - Where Have All the Flowers Gone?
June 21, 2025 Where have all the young men gone? They're all in uniform Where have all the soldiers gone? Gone to graveyards every one Just last month, a family office exec joked, “What’s so scary about a U.S. recession? Just start a war and it’ll fix everything!” 💣 He was referring to Military Industrialism , where defense spending fuels the economy - and the U.S. knows that playbook well . Now, war’s actually broken out. While the U.S. didn’t strike first, its role is undeniably pivotal. This week, we sifted through major reports to break down the battlefield shifts, oil price risks , and what it all means for the markets. 📊🔥 War Returns to the Middle East - What's the Endgame? 1) What role does US play in this conflict? 2) How might this war eventually conclude? 3) And how will the stock market respond? Source: https://theinitium.com/opinion/20250617-iran-israel-war 1) What role does US play in this conflict? The conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating rapidly, and the White House has announced it will decide within two weeks whether to join in a potential strike against Iran . Why is America’s involvement drawing so much global attention? 💥 Relentless Israeli Airstrikes Target Iran's Nuclear Heart 💥 Israel has been conducting intensive bombing campaigns for days, aiming squarely at Iran’s elusive nuclear weapons program. Iran’s air defense system is reportedly on the verge of collapse, leaving its skies virtually unprotected - but the hardest obstacle lies ahead: Iran’s largest uranium enrichment facility, Fordow , is buried 90 meters deep inside a mountain. Only the U.S. military possesses the firepower that might destroy it - namely, the legendary GBU-57 "Massive Ordnance Penetrator" (with only about 20 in existence), and the B-2 stealth bombers (just 21 in total) capable of delivering them. These weapons are designed to drill through rock and reinforced concrete, detonating at 60 meters underground. Some experts estimate that within a matter of weeks, Iran could convert its current uranium stockpile at Fordow into 233 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium - enough to build up to 9 nuclear warheads . Unless Fordow is destroyed, analysts believe Israel’s current airstrikes may, at best, only delay Iran’s nuclear program by a year or two - leaving Tehran with a clear path to potentially building its first nuclear weapon in the near future. Source: https://news.sky.com/story/fordow-what-we-know-about-irans-secretive-nuclear-mountain-and-how-israel-might-try-to-destroy-it-13385834 Source: X 🧨 Why Not Bomb Fordow? Four Big Reasons the U.S. Is Stuck in a Tight Spot 🧨 Even with Iran’s skies laid bare and its air defenses in ruins, Trump - at least in theory - could seize this golden opportunity to bomb the Fordow facility and wipe out Iran’s nuclear program in a matter of hours. But even someone as famously bold as Trump has serious reasons to hesitate: ☢️ A direct strike on Fordow risks unleashing uncontrollable nuclear fallout from deep underground. 🪖 U.S. military presence across the Middle East is thin , making it hard to secure and control the aftermath of an airstrike. 🗣️ The ghosts of the Iraq War still haunt Washington , and anti-war sentiment in the U.S. remains strong. 🌋 Iran refuses to talk without a ceasefire - back them into a corner, and the entire region could spiral into chaos ✈️ Where Is America's “Real” Battlefield? ✈️ In a surprise move, Trump left the G7 summit a day early to address the unfolding Middle East crisis, skipping a scheduled meeting with the Ukrainian president. That reshuffle didn’t go unnoticed. It raises the question: Has the grinding, slow-burn war in Ukraine lost its strategic sparkle in Trump’s eyes? Could the turbulent, fast-moving front in the Middle East now be the stage where he sees America flexing its power and reclaiming its swagger on the global stage? 🌍⚔️ 2) How might this war eventually conclude? According to a Bloomberg opinion columnist , the current turmoil in the Middle East could play out in three potential scenarios: 🟥 Scenario 1: War Ignites - The U.S. Strikes Fordow, Oil Prices Go Vertical Trump runs out of patience waiting for Iran to come to the table - so he gives the green light. The U.S. launches an airstrike on the fortified Fordow nuclear facility, triggering full-blown confrontation. Iran retaliates swiftly , lashing out at American allies and assets across the region. The columnist speculates that while the U.S. would likely come out on top militarily, the real wildcard is how quickly Iran throws in the towel and agrees to a ceasefire. 📈 In the worst-case scenario? Iran moves to block the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint for nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. Oil prices could rocket past $130 a barrel , inflation would spike globally, and hopes for any Federal Reserve rate cuts would vanish overnight. 🟩 Scenario 2: No Bombs, Just Pressure - Pushing Iran to the Table Instead of launching missiles, the U.S. plays the long game - wielding diplomacy, economic sanctions, and intelligence ops to pile on unprecedented pressure. Iran, cornered but not bombed, agrees to freeze its nuclear program . Israel claims “mission accomplished,” and tensions cool rapidly. 🕊️ Sounds like the dream ending, right? If divine intervention kicks in, oil could tumble back to $65 a barrel , and the world’s biggest worry might once again be an oversupply of oil - a problem we now realize is actually a luxury. 🤔 But don’t hold your breath. Experts familiar with Iran’s negotiating playbook say this level of surrender isn’t exactly Tehran’s style. Peaceful? Maybe. Easy? Definitely not. 🟦 Scenario 3: Stalemate - Neither Side Wins, No One Walks Away Neither Israel nor Iran backs down, but out of respect for U.S. pressure, both sides keep the conflict from spiraling. Missiles still fly - but carefully avoid each other’s critical energy infrastructure. 🥀 For Iran, it’s a face-saving way to de-escalate. For Israel, without full U.S. backing, a decisive strike becomes unrealistic. In this drawn-out, muddy middle ground , oil prices could hover around $70 a barrel - much like the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war: initial panic, followed by a slow fade into global indifference. 3) And how will the stock market respond? We mentioned "Military Industrialism" at the beginning of the newsletter. It isn't just a theory. It is a time-tested playbook. The classic example? World War II (1939–1945). While Europe was engulfed in flames, the U.S. - safely across the Atlantic - revved up its war machine and unleashed massive government spending . The result? A miraculous escape from the Great Depression! Unemployment plummeted from 25% to under 2%, women and minorities surged into the workforce, GDP exploded, and America dethroned Britain to become the new global superpower. 👑 But the sequel - Vietnam War (1955–1975) - wasn’t nearly as glamorous. Sure, the early days of the war gave the economy a temporary jolt. But trying to fund both a war abroad and sweeping social programs at home? That meant printing money . Lots of it. Inflation soared. Then came the 1973 oil crisis , and suddenly the U.S. was stuck in the dreaded trap of stagflation : sky-high prices, stagnant growth. 😓 It wasn’t until 1979 that Fed Chair Paul Volcker dropped the hammer - the infamous “Volcker Shock.” Interest rates shot past 20%, and only after a painful economic purge did inflation finally retreat. 💣📉 Fast-forward to a moment still fresh in our memory: the Russia–Ukraine war. The war started on February 24, 2022 , and markets braced for impact. But surprise - the S&P 500 dipped less than 3% , bottomed out by early March, and then staged a fierce rebound. The real correction didn’t come until the second half of 2022, when U.S. inflation refused to cool and the Fed turned full hawk mode. By October, the market finally hit its true low. And then? November 30, 2022 - enter ChatGPT . The AI boom was born, and U.S. equities haven’t looked back since. 🧠🚀 The war still rages on, but as far as Wall Street’s concerned? It’s already moved on. What about this new war in the Middle East? Will it trigger systemic risk for U.S. markets, or just another round of inflation jitters ? And hey, could there be another “ChatGPT moment” waiting in the wings to rescue weary investors? Here’s what we’ll be watching closely: 📌 How will Trump play his strategic cards? 📌 Can Micron’s earnings next Wednesday keep the AI dream alive? 📌 And don’t forget to follow Jadewell Family Office on Facebook and IG - we’ll be sharing our latest insights in real time. Wondering how to navigate your portfolio through all this macro volatility? Let’s talk. Reach out today and let’s find the strategy that fits you best. 💼📈 To watch for the coming week: US - Economic Date Jun 23 (Mon) - US Manufacturing and Servicing PMI Jun 24 (Tue) - Fed Chair Powell Speech Jun 26 (Thu) - US 1Q GDP Jun 27 (Fri) - US Core PCE Index US - Earnings Jun 25 (Wed) - Micron (MU) Jun 27 (Fri) - Nike (NKE) For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- 第二十九篇 – 制霸!
2025年6月15日 又是一個有趣的一周,本周參與了 彭博的投資峰會 (Bloomberg Invest) ,也去參觀了 香港科技大學的獨角獸日(UST Unicorn Day)。 在峰會上確認了華爾街關於投資趨勢的共識(還是沒怎麼變),而重回校園的感覺更好,年輕創業家們還是那麼有衝勁,台上的教授們還是一樣那麼囉嗦。 而瑜新家族辦公室本周也進行了 新的嘗試! 許多讀者都抱怨我的周報太長啦,在2025年的今天,誰還有閒情逸致花十分鐘看這些東西。🥲🥹 好吧 ! 正好我們的 臉書 和 IG 也開始運作了 ,本周就試著把周報裡的各個主題,在社群媒體上即時摘要呈現,周末再加上各項細節,並匯總成為周報。 所以請記得關注我們的帳號,獲得第一手資訊呀 ! 您還有什麼其他建議嗎 ? 歡迎隨時告訴我們喔 ! 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 中國的稀土制霸! 中國靠著在稀土供應鏈的絕對制霸權,在談判桌上給特朗普將了一軍。究竟 稀土有什麼神奇的力量 ? 中國又是如何 一騎絕塵 ,把全世界都遠遠拋在後面的? 2️⃣ 說到制霸,原來標普五百指數漏掉了兩個大霸主? 有客人問我:「如果我直接買標普五百指數,是不是就等於投資了全球市值最高的幾家公司?」嘿嘿,那可不一定! 全球市值最高的十大公司 ,其中竟有「兩間」不包含在標普五百指數中! 您猜得到是誰嗎? 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周一土 中國的稀土制霸 2) 您知道嗎? 標普五百指數漏了誰? 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國 - 經濟數據 6月16日 (周一) - 工業生產、零售銷售、固定資產投資 美國 - 經濟數據 6月17日(周二) - 20年期美國國庫債標售、零售銷售 6月19日(周四) - 美國聯儲局議息會議 其他重要大事 6月17日(周二) - 日本央行議息會議 6月19日(周四) - 瑞士央行議息會議、英國央行議息會議 每周一土 – 中國的稀土制霸 在本輪中美貿易戰談判中,中國靠著多年來的「稀土佈局」成功扳回一城! 究竟稀土是什麼?有多稀?又具備什麼神秘力量?以下三個問答,一次了解! 1) 什麼是稀土? 「稀土」其實是17種化學元素的總稱。 說來你可能不信, 稀土其實一點也不稀有! 在地球上的含量甚至比金、銀、銅還高。 稀有的點在於,它們不是以 純礦形式 存在,而是 分散在各種礦石中 ,使得提取過程相當複雜。 1787 年在瑞典發現的一塊黑色神秘石頭,是人類首次發現稀土,但也花了科學家幾百年的時間,才慢慢搞懂裡面的多種元素! Source: https://www.uniladtech.com/news/discovery-2-trillion-tonnes-rare-earth-mineral-us-112183-20241112 2) 稀土有什麼用途? 稀土元素擁有 獨特的磁性 🧲 、光學特性 💡 和導電能力 ⚡ ,是許多尖端技術發展的重要推手! 【舉例一】特斯拉最早期的 電動車 ,用的是「交流感應馬達」,這種馬達不需要稀土元素。但到了 Model 3,特斯拉就開始轉用包含稀土的 「永磁馬達」 了。因為用稀土做的磁鐵,可以 提升能效 : 永磁馬達的能量轉換效率比交流感應馬達更高,使電動車能夠 行駛更長距離 。 減少電池負擔 : 更高效的馬達能降低電池的能耗, 延長電池壽命 。 減少發熱 : 永磁馬達的運行溫度較低, 減少冷卻系統的負擔 。 降低車輛重量 : 永磁馬達比感應馬達更輕, 有助於提升車輛性能 。 【舉例二】稀土也被廣泛應用在 軍事設備 中,例如: 飛彈與智慧武器 : 用於飛彈電動機與定位系統, 可提升精準度 核潛艇與航母 : 確保核動力系統的穩定性 夜視設備 : 稀土是熱成像儀的核心材料, 提升夜間作戰能力 另外, 消費電子 📱 、 工業製造 🏭 、 半導體生產 ⚙️ 等等都離不開稀土。可以說稀土就是高科技的「隱形核心」! 3) 中國是如何「制霸」稀土供應鏈的? 首先,得掌握稀土資源 🌍 全球約 60% 的稀土儲量 來自中國,尤其是 內蒙古白雲鄂博礦、江西離子型稀土礦 ,提供了穩定的原材料來源。這些稀土不僅種類齊全,而且開採成本低,讓中國在原材料供應上擁有絕對優勢。 然後,得壟斷精煉技術 ⚙️ 稀土提煉需要 複雜的化學分離技術 ,產生大量有毒廢料,涉及 嚴重的環保與成本問題 。 中國掌控了全球約 85% 的稀土精煉產能 ,其他國家即便開採稀土,也需依賴中國進行精煉。 還得獨佔下游製造 🧲 稀土最重要的應用之一是 高性能磁鐵 ,被廣泛用於電動車、風力發電機、軍事設備等。 中國生產全球約 90% 的稀土磁鐵 ,確保其在 新能源、國防、電子產業 中的主導地位。 政策東風也不可少 📜 政府主導的產業佈局 使中國的稀土供應鏈更加集中化與戰略化。透過貿易政策,中國可以已經把稀土變成了 戰略武器 。 📌 結論 :中國透過 資源壟斷、技術領先、政策控制 ,建立了難以撼動的 稀土霸權 。 上周我參加了Bloomberg Invest 會議的時候,某位來自歐洲的講者,語重心長地說, 「希望歐洲也能早日找到他們的稀土 (I hope Europe can find its “rare earth” soon)」 ,不然在貿易談判上就只能被美國壓著打。 其實不只是歐洲, 每個新創公司,每個人,都得找到自己的稀土! 雖然過程艱辛、各種汙染難免,但少了自己的稀土, 在這個世界上還有什麼話語權呢? For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎? – 標普五百指數漏了誰? 當說到 全球市值最高 的企業時,您是否立刻聯想到 美國的那些巨型跨國企業 ? 最近有客人問我: 「如果我直接買標普五百指數,是不是就等於投資了全球市值最高的幾家公司?」 嘿嘿,那可不一定! 😏 就拿 全球市值最高的十大公司 來說,其中竟有「兩間」不包含在 【標普五百指數】 中!您能猜到是哪兩間嗎? 💡 小提示: 要加入標普五百指數,企業必須是 美國公司 。所以這兩家被「漏掉」的企業,就是雖然大但並不「美」的公司! 🔍 答案揭曉!被漏掉的就是 🏆 全球市值排名第七: 沙地阿美 Saudi Aramco 🏆 全球市值排名第九: 人類未來的寄託,全台灣的驕傲 💪 台積電 💪 那麼,以科技為主的 【納斯達克指數】 裡面有台積電嗎? 答案是:也沒有! 🚫 納斯達克指數雖然並「不」要求成分股必須是美國公司,但卻得在【納斯達克交易所】上市。而台積電的美股 ADR 上市地點是【紐約證券交易所】,並非納斯達克,因此也不符合資格喔。 最後最後,別忘了收聽去 Spotify 收聽我們的 Podcast ,追蹤我們的 Facebook 還有 IG ,一起來討論更多有趣的財經話題吧 目前全球市值最高的十間公司 (以2025年6月13日數據為準) Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/usd/ For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種,「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立,為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務,提供較為標準化的產品,與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢,在服務層面上,根據每位客人的不同需求,提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務;在執行層面上,為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序,利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台,可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- Vol 29 - The "Rare" Dominance!
June 15, 2025 A week full of insights and energy! This week, I had the chance to attend the Bloomberg Invest summit and visit UST Unicorn Day at University of Science and Technology. 🔹 Wall Street's investment consensus? Still holding strong, no surprises there. 🔹 Campus vibes? Electric! Young entrepreneurs are charging ahead with ambition, while professors - well, they remain as talkative as ever. Meanwhile, Jadewell Family Office is also testing something new! Many of you have said my newsletter is way too long ... I hear you. 🥲🥹 So, here’s the plan: 🚀 Real-time updates on Facebook & IG throughout the week! 📌 Then, on weekends, we’ll compile detailed insights into the full weekly newsletter. Have ideas or suggestions? Let me know! Always excited to hear your thoughts. What's in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ China’s Rare Earth Dominance! China has leveraged its absolute control over the rare earth supply chain to gain a strategic edge at the negotiation table - leaving Trump in check. But what makes rare earths so powerful? And how has China pulled far ahead, leaving the rest of the world trailing behind ? 2️⃣ S&P 500's Missing Titans? You’d think investing in the S&P 500 means owning shares in the world’s largest companies , right? Not so fast! Two of the world’s top 10 companies aren’t even included in the index! Can you guess which ones? 🤔 Category Contents for this week 1) Earths of the Week China's Rare Earth Dominance! 2) Fun Fact S&P 500's Missing Titans? Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China - Eco Data Jun 16 (Mon) - Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment US - Eco Data Jun 17 (Tue) - 20-year US Treasury Auction, Retail Sales Jun 19 (Thu) - FOMC Rates Decision Other Major Events Jun 17 (Tue) - Bank of Japan Rates Meeting Jun 19 (Thu) - Swiss National Bank Rates Meeting, Bank of England Rates Meeting Earths of the Week – China's Rare Earth Dominance! In the latest round of U.S.–China trade negotiations , China leveraged its rare earth dominance to gain the upper hand! But what exactly are rare earths? How rare are they? And what makes them so valuable? Let’s break it down: 1) What Are Rare Earths? Rare earths refer to 17 special chemical elements that play a crucial role in modern technology. Surprisingly, they’re not rare at all! Their abundance on Earth is greater than gold, silver, and copper . The challenge? They don’t exist as pure minerals —instead, they’re scattered across different ores, making extraction a highly complex process . The first discovery of rare earths dates back to 1787 , when scientists in Sweden stumbled upon a mysterious black rock . It took them centuries to fully understand its hidden elements! Source: https://www.uniladtech.com/news/discovery-2-trillion-tonnes-rare-earth-mineral-us-112183-20241112 2) The Power of Rare Earths: Why They're Indispensable? Rare earth elements possess unique magnetic 🧲, optical 💡, and conductive ⚡ properties , making them the backbone of cutting-edge technology. Example 1: Revolutionizing Electric Vehicles Tesla’s early models , like the Roadster, used induction motors , which didn’t require rare earths. But with Model 3 , Tesla switched to permanent magnet motors , leveraging rare-earth magnets for superior performance: 🚀 Higher efficiency : Converts energy more effectively, allowing EVs to travel longer distances 🔋 Reduced battery strain : Boosts energy efficiency, extending battery life ❄️ Lower heat generation : Runs at cooler temperatures, reducing the need for cooling systems 🏎️ Lighter weight : Permanent magnet motors are smaller & lighter , improving vehicle performance Example 2: Critical in Military Technology Rare earths are also essential in advanced defense systems , including: 🚀 Missiles & smart weapons : Enhance precision by improving guidance systems & electric motors ⚡ Nuclear submarines & aircraft carriers : Ensure the stability of nuclear propulsion systems 🌙 Night vision equipment : Rare earths are core materials in thermal imaging , boosting nighttime combat capabilities Beyond this, rare earths are irreplaceable in consumer electronics, industrial manufacturing, and semiconductor production! Rare earths are the invisible force driving modern technology forward. 3) How China Dominated Rare Earth? Step 1: Controlling the Raw Materials 🌍 China holds around 60% of the world’s rare earth reserves , mainly in Inner Mongolia’s Bayan Obo Mine and Jiangxi’s ion-absorbed rare earth deposits. Not only does China have a diverse range of rare earth elements, but its low-cost mining gives it an undeniable edge in supply dominance. Step 2: Monopolizing the Refining Process ⚙️ Extracting rare earths requires complex chemical separation techniques , creating toxic waste and posing huge environmental challenges . China controls about 85% of the world’s rare earth refining capacity - even if other countries mine rare earths, they still rely on China for processing. Step 3: Owning the Manufacturing Chain 🧲 The most valuable rare earth application? High-performance magnets - used in EV motors, wind turbines, and military equipment . China produces nearly 90% of the world's rare earth magnets, securing its dominance in defense, renewable energy, and tech industries. Step 4: Government 📜 Unlike other nations, China’s rare earth industry is strategically guided by the government , making it highly centralized and politically weaponized. From export restrictions to trade negotiations, China has turned rare earths into a bargaining chip on the global stage. 📌 Bottom Line: Through resource control, technological monopoly, and policy-driven strategy , China has built an unshakable rare earth empire . Find Your Rare Earth At Bloomberg Invest , a European speaker said: "I hope Europe can find its 'rare earth' soon." Without essential resources, Europe risks being outmaneuvered in trade , always reacting instead of leading. But this applies to everyone - startups, companies, individuals. 🔍 Your rare earth is your competitive edge . 🚀 The journey is tough, but without it, how much influence do you have? For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Fact – S&P 500's Missing Titans? Think the World's Biggest Companies Are All American? Think Again! A client recently asked me: "If I buy the S&P 500, am I automatically invested in the world’s largest companies?" Well… not exactly! 😏 While many assume that the top global giants are all included in the S&P 500 , two of the largest market cap companies are actually missing from the index! Can you guess which ones? 💡 Hint: To be part of the S&P 500, a company must be American - so these two massive corporations didn’t make the cut simply because they aren’t U.S. companies! 🔍 The answer? 🏆 #7 in global market cap – Saudi Aramco (Saudi Arabia’s energy powerhouse) 🏆 #9 in global market cap – TSMC (Taiwan’s semiconductor giant and a pillar of the tech industry 💪) But what about the NASDAQ index , which focuses on tech? Surprisingly, TSMC isn’t in NASDAQ either! 🚫 NASDAQ doesn’t require companies to be American, but they must be listed on the NASDAQ exchange . Since TSMC’s ADRs trade on the New York Stock Exchange , it doesn’t qualify! Before you go - don’t forget! 🎧 Tune in to our podcast on Spotify where we dive into the latest financial insights. 📌 Follow us on Facebook and IG to join the conversation and explore even more exciting market trends! And here’s a look at the top 10 companies by global market cap (as of June 13, 2025) right now! 👇 Source: https://companiesmarketcap.com/usd/ For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- 第二十八篇 – 「超狗速」進化中!
2025年6月8日 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ AI 狂潮: 令人瞠目結舌的圖表! 大家都知道AI的發展一日千里, 但AI狂潮和人類歷史上幾次經典的技術革命比起來 ,到底快了多少呢? 傳奇科技創投元老 Mary Meeker 剛剛發表了年度報告,我選了裡面幾個有趣的圖表與您分享。 準備好要大開眼界了嗎? 2️⃣ 美股科技七雄: 估值大閱兵 - 輝達 上周曾短暫奪下「全世界最高市值的公司」寶座,但很快又被 微軟 把皇冠給搶了回來。但市值只是股價的其中一個表象,並不能完全代表一間公司的投資價值。 投資上常用的估值方法,是 把股價(Price)除以公司盈利(Earnings) ,算出 P/E值 ,中文常譯為 「本益比」 或是 「市盈率」 。 您猜得出以P/E值來排名的話,誰是科技七雄裡面最高的,誰又是墊底的呢? 😏 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周多圖 AI狂潮: 這次有什麼不同? 2) 市場熱話 科技七雄估值大閱兵 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 美國 - 業績 6月11日(周三) - Oracle (ORCL) 美國 - 經濟數據 6月11日(周三) - 5月份消費者物價指數 (CPI) 其他大事 6月9日(周一) - 日本第一季 GDP 每周多圖 – AI狂潮: 這次有什麼不同? Mary Meeker 是美國著名的創業投資家,也曾經是摩根士丹利的首席分析師。因為她曾成功預測多次科技革命,而被譽為 互聯網女皇 👑。 每年她都會發布一份 《趨勢報告》 ,被視為科技業的重要風向標。 就在上周,今年的趨勢報告終於出爐了! 當然,重點全部圍繞著 🔥🤖 A~I~ 🤖🔥 我從這份長達340頁的報告中,選了幾個特別有趣的圖表,讓您清楚看到 AI狂潮的驚人進展 ,以及 與過往世界的鮮明對比! 1) 變化的速度比以往任何時候都快? 沒錯! 早在1999年,互聯網先驅 Vint Cerf 就曾經說過: 「互聯網產業的一年, 就像狗的一年 ,相當於人類的七年 (A year in the Internet business is like a dog year - equivalent to seven years in a regular person's life)」 但現在看來,就算用 「狗速」 都不足以形容AI飛快發展的進程! 請看以下的比較: 福特T型車 (1908) 🚗 – 這是人類歷史上第一輛可以大規模量產的汽車,讓汽車價格變得平易近人。在20世紀初,福特T型車用了 2,500天 ,達到了100萬用戶規模。 TiVo 錄影機 (1999) 📼 – 第一款可以把電視節目錄下來的錄影機,讓沙發馬鈴薯們可以隨時觀看心愛的節目。這個劃時代的發明,用了 1,680天 ,達到了100萬用戶規模。 iPhone (2007) 📱– 不需要介紹了吧… 想當年,iPhone用了 74天 ,就達到了100萬用戶規模。 ChatGPT (2022) 🤖 – 鼓聲請準備… 達到100萬用戶規模,ChatGPT 只花了5天! 🤯 Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND 那要是把 ChatGPT 拿來跟歷史上幾次的 互聯網革命 相比,更是令人瞠目結舌。 從「橫空出世」到 「突破1億用戶」 ,ChatGPT只用了 兩個多月! 如此魔性的蔓延速度,真的是前所未見! Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND 2) 未來的我們,又會用什麼方式「搜尋」呢? 還記得Google搜尋引擎剛推出的那幾年,徹底改變了人們獲取資訊的方式。但很遺憾地, 所有的「創新」都將成為「曾經」。 據我個人的經驗,Google搜尋確實能找到海量的資訊,但用戶還是得靠自己,在各個搜索結果中 篩選、整理、總結 ,才能得出可用的結果。 用ChatGPT來搜索,則是截然不同的體驗 - 它直接就給出有條理的答案,把一件事情的前因後果講得清清楚楚,還可以在結果上輕易地繼續搜索進階的資訊。當然有時候答案不一定完全正確,但誰說 Google 的搜尋結果就肯定萬無一失呢? 用戶用腳投票的趨勢,也很直接地反映在了數據上: 🔎 Google 花了 11年 ( 2009-2020 ) ,達到了 年搜尋量3,650億次 的規模 🚀 ChatGPT 只花了 2年(2022-2024) ,就達到了同樣的規模 Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND 3) 成本下降、效能提升、應用增長,同一時間全部發生! 而 AI的推理成本 也在快速下降中,速度遠超當年 電力 、 記憶體技術 的歷史突破,讓AI以 前所未有的低門檻 普及開來。 Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND 這份長達340頁的深入報告,還有許多有趣的圖表,但因為周報篇幅所限而無法分享。如果您有興趣知道更多,請直接連絡我們吧! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 科技七雄估值大閱兵 輝達與微軟,到底誰才可以坐穩「全世界最高市值的公司」寶座? 這場硬戰看來還有得打! 但市值代表的是股價, 只是表象 。真正看清一間企業的投資價值,還得看「 估值 (Valuation)」 。 最常見也最簡單的估值方法,就是 把股價(Price)除以公司盈利(Earnings) ,算出 P/E值 ,中文常譯為 「本益比」 或是 「市盈率」 。 P/E值是什麼概念呢? 就是為了這間公司賺的每一塊錢盈利,你願意支付多少的價格。 那要考慮的因素就很多啦,包含未來的成長可能性、內部公司治理好不好、在宏觀環境下的韌性有多高等等。 舉例來說, 你家巷口的那個牛肉麵攤 ,一碗牛肉麵只要80台幣,熱騰騰、肉厚湯鮮,就是環境差了點,煮麵的歐巴桑老了點,但也還能接受。這種就是類似 低P/E值 的股票,買起來划算,但是未來的成長空間可能較為受限。 另外一邊則是 五星級酒店要價數百元的冠軍牛肉麵 ,肉是頂級牛小排,湯頭用珍貴食材熬了三天三夜,主廚看起來還很帥。這就像是 高P/E值 的股票,雖然很貴,但是市場認為盈利有增長的潛力,顧客吃的不只是麵,更是品牌、體驗和身分象徵。 以下就讓我們把科技七雄各自的P/E值,都拿出來大閱兵一番吧! 🎯 挑戰題! 🎯 在我們公布答案之前,您猜不猜得到科技七雄中,誰的P/E值最高,誰又是敬陪末座呢? 在實務操作上,P/E值的「分子P」和「分母E」,分別用的是哪個時段的數據,也會造成結果的不同。為避免混淆,以下是我們用的公式: P/E = 【分子P為2025年6月6日的收盤價】/【分母E為彭博社綜合估計出的今年全年每股盈利】 科技七雄中的P/E之王 聰明的讀者可能已經猜到啦,P/E之王就是...... 特斯拉 (153.72倍 P/E) ! 但諷刺的是,特斯拉登上寶座,並不是因為他的「分子P」有多高, 而是因為他的「分母E」實在太低啦! 就像巷口那間牛肉麵,平時煮麵的歐巴桑生病了,換成老闆親自下廚,雖然還是只要80元台幣,但是牛肉硬的咬不動,麵又爛又坨,簡直是失敗中的失敗! 其實特斯拉一直以來的盈利都不是很穩定,去年開始馬斯克政治任務纏身,讓情況變得更加混亂。雖然馬斯克已經擺脫了政治角色(是執著是灑脫留給別人去說💔😢),但還是無法改變 上個季度利潤暴跌將近一半 的事實,也使得特斯拉的P/E值飛上了天。 P/E值高於30倍的朋友們 撇開特斯拉這個戲劇精不談,科技七雄中P/E值排名靠前的另外三位則是: 微軟 (35.10倍 P/E)、輝達 (32.80倍 P/E) 還有亞馬遜 (31.09倍 P/E)。 這就沒什麼懸念了吧, 這三家正是AI領域目前的最大贏家 。雖然他們一路走來也是波折重重,但是比起其他七雄成員來說,已經算是相當順利了。以 P/E值 來說, 微軟 是這三位朋友中最高的,這主要是因為 微軟的收入更加多元化 ,所以市場願意(暫時)給到微軟一個 比較高的P/E估值 。 不過,AI才剛剛開始,未來還有許多的可能! 您還記得上面看過的圖表嗎? AI 的推理成本正在快速下降中 ,這意味著,無論是構建小型的AI模型、或是開發AI應用, 門檻正在降低 ,令一般的開發者也能實現自己的夢想、推出自己的產品。 而 輝達 才不會白白放過這個機會呢! 輝達的黃爸爸今年推出了 DGX Spark ,是一個只有手掌大小的 超級電腦 ,售價僅4000美元,目標客群就是這些一般的開發者。因為AI的未來不一定只有 科技巨頭 才能掌控,也有可能是由 世界各地的小型或個人開發者一起推動! 就像當年的遊戲行業,風靡全球的 《憤怒鳥》 就是由一間來自芬蘭、瀕臨倒閉的小公司所開發出來的!💡 Source: A Grace Blackwell AI supercomputer on your desk | NVIDIA DGX Spark P/E值介於25-30倍的朋友們 接著往下看,是兩位麻煩比較多的朋友 - 蘋果 (28倍 P/E)、臉書 (26倍 P/E)。 🍎 iPhone 的光環仍在,但蘋果的麻煩卻多了很多: 特朗普的關稅、放緩的中國市場、還有應用程式商店的抽成政策引起的法律糾紛。更令人擔憂的是,蘋果在AI狂潮的起步本來就晚了一些,現在要如何在麻煩纏身的情況下急起直追,不確定性還是很高。 蘋果 明天(6月9日) 就要舉行 年度開發者大會 (WWDC 2025) 啦,且看這次會上有沒有什麼可以令人眼睛一亮的突破! 🔵 至於臉書,廣告霸主地位正面臨激烈競爭: 隨著社群型態的變化,TikTok、小紅書甚至YouTube 都正和臉書爭搶數位廣告這塊大餅,臉書還得應付 全球監管對數據隱私 的審查。至於AI,與其他科技公司相比,臉書雖然也是砸了大把錢來投資AI,但 實際上要如何變現 ,似乎還沒有一個清晰的路徑。 而P/E值敬陪末座的是... 沒錯,到現在都還沒出場的,只剩下你👉 谷歌 (17倍 P/E)! 還記得上面有個關於 Google搜尋 與 ChatGPT搜尋 比較的圖表嗎? AI聊天機器人一日千里的進展,對 谷歌的核心搜尋業務 ,帶來巨大的挑戰。 這也是 谷歌內部 早期對於是否要擁抱AI,有各種不同意見的原因。內部的紛擾,還直接變成了 外顯的笑話 。2023年,為了應對 ChatGPT,谷歌倉促推出了自家的 Bard模型 ,鬧出了一堆笑話(在台上找不到示範用的手機、Bard 的回答錯誤百出被人抓包等等),拖累自家的股票市值,一下就蒸發了1000億美元。 但巨人始終是巨人。被全地球的人笑噴了一臉口水之後,谷歌終於決定痛定思痛,擁抱未來的趨勢, 不要變成下一個諾基亞或是柯達 。 🔍 谷歌搜尋 🔍 您留意到了嗎? 現在使用谷歌搜尋的時候,第一個彈出來的搜尋結果,已經不再是願意出最高價買下版面的廣告主了,而是 谷歌自己的AI模型產生的解答 。 ⚡ 自製AI晶片(TPU) ⚡谷歌自行打造的TPU,也已經在降低成本、提高集團內各業務綜效等方面,有了顯著的成果 (谷歌上個月發布的 AI Operating Layer ,就是類似AI版的作業系統,可以把谷歌地圖、Gmail、Google Drive、YouTube等等業務通通都無縫連接,深入日常生活) 🤖 = 🗺️+📧+📁+🎥+✈️+🏨+🍽️ 當然,追趕AI只是谷歌的其中一個挑戰,谷歌一直都還面臨 美國司法部的反壟斷調查 ,傷筋動骨、斷手斷腳的可能性難以忽略,也是造成 P/E值始終上不去 的原因之一。 但就如同各位智者所說, 解決問題的第一步,就是承認問題。 谷歌已經勇敢地踏出了第一步,未來路阻且長,且看谷歌是否能殺出重圍、再創輝煌。 最後用一張表來總結,這張表包含了三個與P/E值有關的數據,分別是 以【今年】盈利預測來計算的P/E值 (這就是我們上面用來排名的數據) 以【明年】盈利預測來計算的P/E值 ( 把眼光放長到明年的盈利預測,就會看到P/E值的排名有變化喔!) PEG - 這是比P/E值更進階的估值方法 ,將原先的P/E值,除以 公司的盈利增長速度(G) 。一旦把盈利增長的速度也考慮進去,更能看出一家公司是否被高估或低估。用PEG的方法來看,因為 輝達 的增長速度(G)驚人,竟然變成了 PEG估值最低,最便宜 的股票呢! 有趣吧? 這要是繼續展開,還能說上一天一夜。不過這裡的篇幅有限,只好打住啦。 要是您有興趣進一步討論,請直接聯繫【瑜新家族辦公室】,或是追蹤我們的 Podcast 及社交帳號, Spotify 、 Facebook 、 IG ,一起寓投資於樂吧! 🚀 📊 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種,「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立,為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務,提供較為標準化的產品,與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢,在服務層面上,根據每位客人的不同需求,提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務;在執行層面上,為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序,利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台,可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- Vol 28 – The Dog Year Speed
June 8, 2025 🎙️ New Podcast Episodes Incoming! We're stacking up fresh content on our Spotify podcast channel - have you gotten your weekly dose of Mandarin financial humor yet? 😃🔥 What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ AI Revolution in Cool Charts! AI is spreading like wildfire, but how does its rise compare to other big tech shifts in history ? Legendary tech analyst and VC investor Mary Meeker just dropped a killer report with some jaw-dropping charts! 2️⃣ Mag7 Reality Check: The Most Valuable vs. The Most Expensive - Nvidia snatched the throne as the world’s most "valuable" company from Microsoft for a few days this week. But that's just market cap. Valuation-wise, can you guess which Mag7 stock is the most "expensive" in terms of P/E, and which one is the lowest? 🤔 Category Contents for this week 1) Charts of the Week AI Revolution in Charts! 2) Market Buzz Mag7 Reality Check Key things to watch for the upcoming week: US - Earnings Jun 11 (Wed) - Oracle (ORCL) US - Eco Data Jun 11 (Wed) - May CPI Other Major Events Jun 9 (Mon) - Japan 1Q GDP Charts of the Week – AI Revolution in Charts! Meet Mary Meeker , the legendary “Queen of the Internet” 👑. She’s famous for her days in Morgan Stanley when she spotted game-changing tech trends before the rest of the world catches on. Think Apple, Google, and the rise of the digital economy - she saw it all coming before us! Last week, she dropped the report for 2025, and (of course) AI was the star of the show! I've gathered some eye-opening charts from the report that vividly illustrate the AI revolution - contrasting it with what we once knew. 1) Seem Like Change Happening Faster Than Ever? Yes, It Is! Back in 1999, Internet pioneer Vint Cerf famously said: "A year in the Internet business is like a dog year - equivalent to seven years in a regular person's life." Well, turns out, that dog-year speed is still way too slow to describe what’s happening with AI! Let's see below comparison: Ford Model T (1908) 🚗 – The first mass-produced car took 2,500 days to hit 1 million users. TiVo (1999) 📼 – The digital video recorder (where you could finally record your favorite shows!) took 1,680 days to hit 1 million users. iPhone (2007) 📱– No introduction needed… it took 74 days to get to 1 million users. ChatGPT (2022) 🤖 – Hold onto your seat… it sprinted to 1 million users in just 5 DAYS . 🤯 Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND When stacked against other major Internet breakthroughs, ChatGPT’s growth was also off the charts . It reached 100 million users within 0.2 years (or 2.5 months) , leaving past tech giants in the dust. Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND 2) The Future of Search? Google search revolutionized the way we find information. But now, it might be history in the making. Here’s my personal take: Google can find you raw information , but you still have to sift, summarize, and refine the results before they make perfect sense. ChatGPT? It provides instant answers that are clear, concise, and ready to use. No extra effort required… well, except for a quick fact-check , just to be safe. The numbers can tell: 🔎 Google took 11 years ( 2009-2020 ) to build up to 365 billion annual searches . 🚀 ChatGPT hit that scale in just 2 years (2022-2024). Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND 3) Costs Fall, Performance Rises, and Usage Grows, All in Tandem. AI inference costs for users are plunging at a pace much faster than historic breakthroughs like electricity and computer memory, accelerating AI’s accessibility for everyday developers and users like never before. Source: Trends - Artificial Intelligence by BOND This 340-page report by Mary Meeker is packed with even more insightful charts. Reach out to us anytime for an in-depth discussion! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – Mag7 Reality check Nvidia shot to the top this week, briefly claiming the throne as t he world’s most valuable company with a jaw-dropping $3.46 trillion market cap . But before it could settle in, Microsoft came roaring back, closing out the week with an even heftier $3.50 trillion . Yet, market cap only scratches the surface. To see the full picture, we turn to the Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. 🚀 Quick challenge! 🚀 Among the Mag7 , which stock do you think boasts the highest P/E ratio ? And which one holds the lowest ? For the following comparison, we will use this formula: P/E = [Closing Level as of June 6, 2025] / [Estimated EPS for Current Year Based on Bloomberg Data] The Highest P/E in Mag7 Some of you may have guessed it already - the P/E crown among Mag7 goes to...... Tesla (153.72x P/E) ! Ironically, it’s not because the "P" is sky-high, but more because its "E" have plummeted. Tesla has always had choppy earnings , but things worsened dramatically when Elon Musk got wrapped up in government work. Now, freed from that role - though not entirely unburdened💔😢 - he’s back, but the damage is done. Tesla’s earnings plunged nearly 50% in the most recent quarter and sent the P/E ratio surging. The Ones with >30x P/E Putting Tesla’s drama aside, the next in line are Microsoft (35.10x P/E), Nvidia (32.80x P/E), and Amazon (31.09x P/E). No surprises here - these are the biggest AI beneficiaries, thriving with fewer noises and distractions (not none, but fewer). Among them, Microsoft holds a higher valuation (for now) thanks to its broader and more diversified revenue streams than the other two. However, AI’s future is still a canvas for imagination. As we've seen from the chart above, inferencing costs are plummeting at an incredible pace, developers - whether solo creators or ambitious pioneers - now have the tools and affordability to turn bold ideas into reality. And Nvidia isn’t letting this trend slip away! This year, Nvidia unveiled DGX Spark - a palm-sized supercomputer priced at just $4,000 , designed to empower everyday developers to innovate and monetize AI using Nvidia’s technology. Because the next big AI breakthrough might not come from a tech giant but from someone like us - just as the gaming world never expected Angry Birds to become a global sensation! 💡 Source: A Grace Blackwell AI supercomputer on your desk | NVIDIA DGX Spark The Ones with 25x-30x P/E Moving down the list, we have the more "troubled" names - Apple (28.47x P/E) and Meta (26.45x P/E). Apple is facing headwinds on multiple fronts - Trump’s tariff uncertainty on iPhones, a slowing China market, and ongoing legal battles over its App Store fee structure. To add to the pressure, Apple is feeling the heat in the AI race. Last year at WWDC 2024 , they unveiled Apple Intelligence , but for many iPhone users, the excitement fizzled fast. Now, with WWDC 2025 kicking off tomorrow (June 9) , the pressure is on. Will Apple finally deliver something truly groundbreaking - or will it be another round of hype without the punch? Meanwhile, Meta’s grip on digital advertising is being shaken by fierce competition from TikTok and YouTube , along with intensifying global regulatory scrutiny. Its massive AI investments also lack a clear monetization strategy , unlike other tech giants. And the Winner for the Lowest P/E is... That's right, the only one that hasn't been named yet is Google (17.68x P/E). Referring again to Mary Meeker's charts, we saw how ChatGPT searches have rapidly scaled up to rival "traditional" Google search , creating a major headwind for Google. This challenge was a big reason why Google hesitated to fully embrace AI early on - remember 2023, when Google rushed out Bard, leading to jokes and a $100 billion drop in market value ? But that was the past. Google is now moving fast to reclaim its AI edge, for example: 🔍 Google search results now prioritize AI-generated responses over ads ⚡ Google's custom AI chip (TPU) enhances efficiency across services like Maps, Gmail, Drive, and YouTube. (🤖 = 🗺️+📧+📁+🎥+✈️+🏨+🍽️) At Google I/O (Google's annual conference) two weeks ago, they even introduced an AI Operating Layer - not just an Operating System on your laptop or mobile, but a powerful AI assistant designed to integrate seamlessly into daily life. Still, AI isn’t the only challenge on Google's plate. The ongoing antitrust lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Justice looms large, with potential structural changes ahead. But as they say - the first step to solving a problem is admitting there is one. And Google seems ready to make that leap. Source: Google I/O 2025 announcements: Gemini 2.5 models, Imagen 4, Veo 3 and Flow - GSMArena.com news To wrap up, here’s the complete list of P/E related ratios , based on current-year earnings (the numbers we talked about above), next-year earnings (shifting the "E" to "next year" could spark a surprising change in rankings!) PEG (P/E ratio divided by growth rates) - Google holds the lowest P/E , but Nvidia takes the crown for the lowest PEG ! What does that signal about valuation and future growth?? I'm running out of space here la! If you're interested in further discussion, feel free to reach out to Jadewell Family Office today or follow us on Spotify, Facebook and IG ! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- 第二十七篇 - 請聽散戶在發聲 (Do You Hear the Retail Sing?)
2025年5月31日 🎉 劉德華證實了這項消息! 瑜新家族辦公室開播啦! 🎙️ 不是詐騙,是真的,我們的第一檔 Podcast 真的上線啦! 還是 普通話 版本呢! 等我去上了英文及粵語正音班之後,我們還會陸續推出其他語言版本的。 有人問我: 「你做這個幹嘛?」,老實說,還真的就是 為了好玩! 🤩 畢竟學習一樣新技能防身,永遠不嫌晚,還可以把因為篇幅所限而寫不進周報的想法,用單口相聲的方式和大家分享,寓報於樂! 📢 快來加入我們的討論吧! - 追蹤我們的 Spotify , Facebook 和 Instagram ,一起探索更多精彩內容! ✨ 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 散戶 vs. 專家: 到底誰才是韭菜? 四月份的美股呈現驚人的V型反彈,靠的是誰呢? 不是那些還在迷茫的專家機構投資者,而是團結力量大的散戶! 請聽散戶在發聲 (Do you hear the retail sing?) 🎤 2️⃣ 長期趨勢 vs. 短期交易? 面對特朗普掀起的市場亂局,有一項長期趨勢似乎毋庸置疑,那就是「 去美元化 (De-Dollarization)」! 然而,若有人試圖用短線交易來操作這項長期趨勢,那多數只有後悔的份。 望山跑死馬,你畫的大餅到底在哪? 🧐 3️⃣ 暗示的力量 - 日本長期債券利率為什麼突然回穩了幾天? 本周稍早,日本的長天期債券利率突然回穩了幾天,跌破了許多人的眼鏡。但究其根底,原來只是日本政府的一個 小小騷操作? 🤫 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周一圖 請聽散戶在發聲 2) 市場熱話 長期趨勢 vs. 短期交易 2) 您知道嗎? 暗示的力量 (日版) 未來一周值得關注的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 6月3日(周二) - 蔚來汽車 (NIO) 美國 - 業績 6月3日(周二) - CrowdStrike (CRWD) 6月5日(周四) - Broadcom (AVGO) 美國 - 經濟數據 6月2日(周一) - 美國5月份製造業採購經理人指數(PMI) 6月5日(周四) - 美國4月份貿易收支 (Trade Balance) 6月6日(周五) - 美國5月份非農就業數據、失業率 其他大事 6月4日(周三) - 加拿大央行議息 6月5日(周四) - 歐洲央行議息 每周一圖 – 請聽散戶在發聲 🥁🥁🥁 Do you hear the retail sing? 請聽散戶在發聲 Singing a song of happy men? 唱出了心中的爽快 It is the music of a people 這是血肉築起的長城 Who will not be chives again 從此不再做 韭菜 🎵🎵🎵 (免責聲明: 英文歌詞與中文翻譯全部都是亂來的) 上面這張圖揭示了一個耐人尋味的故事 - 當 標普五百指數(黃色線) 在四月初急速下跌時, 散戶投資者的買盤(紅色柱狀) 卻大幅上升,展現出驚人的市場韌性,與泰山崩於前而色不變的膽量。 與此同時,所謂的「聰明資金」,也就是由專業機構投資者與基金經理操盤的資金,卻在這個關口, 怂了 ,怕了關稅帶來的市場波動,減少了很多持倉,也因此未能受惠於之後的 V型反彈 。 「現在,真正需要追趕投資表現的,反而是這些專業人士。」 RBC 的策略師如此點評。 散戶這次是如何勝出的? 1️⃣ 芝士就是力量 - 隨著這幾年資訊的民主化、財經知識的快速普及, 「逢低買入」 和 「長線持有」 已經成為重要的散戶投資信條,讓他們更有信心在危機時入市。 2️⃣ 有持貨能力 (Holding Power) 才可以任性 - 與專業經理人不同,散戶投資者用的是自己的錢,所以不必面對 短期的績效壓力 ,讓他們更有足夠的耐心來 承受市場波動 ,穩住陣腳並等待機會。 散戶這次雖然贏了一仗,但是接下來的挑戰將更為棘手。 散戶能否持續稱霸,或是專業投資者才是笑到最後的人? 一切仍然充滿變數。 唯一肯定的是,當明天來臨的時候,市場格局將完全不同啦 (There is a dynamic about to start when tomorrow comes)! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 市場熱話 – 長期趨勢 vs. 短期交易 Source: Is the US Dollar losing its Dominance? (De- Dollarization) - London School of Business 去美元化 (De-Dollarization): 全球資金大洗牌 這周我參與了由亞洲私人銀行家主辦的【中國全球財富峰會】。其中一位來自中金的講者,提出了一個令人深思的觀點: 📢 問問任何人,目前唯一確定的長期趨勢,就是大家都要「去美元化」 ,因為特朗普的瘋狂政策,已經令人對美國金融體系失去信心。 💡 但是若您把這個長期趨勢拿來短期操作? 那問題可就大了! 「去美元化」不會在一夜之間發生,要是現在就急著減持美元資產,那有很大的機會得跑輸大盤。想想那些每天每月被績效追著跑的基金經理人,他們可禁不起這樣的折騰啊 (尤其還有團結力量大的散戶,在背後虎視眈眈) 。 不要美元,能去哪裡? 順應長期趨勢的最好方式,還是回歸基本面,慢慢地調整資產配置。會上有幾個基金經理,也分享了他們的操作方法: 🏆 黃金與比特幣: 美元雖然不再可靠,但世上其他貨幣也各有各的故事,沒有誰可以輕鬆取而代之。黃金與比特幣作為經典的 價值儲存之選 ,適合相信黃金將永遠閃耀,或比特幣稀缺性的投資者。 🌍 全球資產配置: 有些投資者則選擇將目光投向 歐洲、中國、印度、甚至拉丁美洲 市場,以達到分散風險的目的。 💰 優質企業,風吹不倒: 有些基金經理則認為,就算大家都不喜歡美國了,但是 基本面穩健的公司 仍然可以保留投資價值,所以只要肯做功課,在瓦礫堆裡也可以挖到鑽石。 🎭 靈活應變,矯捷如兔: 還有些基金經理人,對全球變幻莫測的局勢感到相當興奮,他們相信只要 投資組合持倉足夠靈活 ,兵來將擋那是水來土掩,這世上沒有 不好的 投資標的,只有 太貴的 投資標的 - 只要估值夠便宜,我就來買你! 但最重要的,請您要記得... 嚴格管控您的 持倉成本 ! ✅ 不要一頭熱地追高 ✅ 也不要在恐慌的時候拋售 - 就我個人經驗,要做到這點,那必須要對投資標的有充分的認識,還有真心的愛💘(例如張爺爺與黃爸爸),才能夠在恐慌蔓延的時候,理性地守住投資組合的敞口。 當然啦,這些投資準則嘴上說說容易,誰不是 說起來像高手,做起來像新手 呢。所以,有個理性的聲音可以適時地提醒您,幫您做個心理復健,就很重要啦! 💬 今天就連絡【瑜新家族辦公室】吧,我們就是您正在尋找的那個「理性的聲音」! 🔊 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎? – 暗示的力量 (日版) 如果您有修過經濟學,那您可能還記得,教科書上說中央銀行有「三大工具」可以用來影響市場: 公開市場操作 (Open market operations) - 就是央行直接出面在市場上買進或賣出債券 準備金要求 (Reserve requirements) - 藉由調整金融機構的準備金要求,希望間接影響金融機構放貸給實體經濟的意願 政策利率 (Policy rates) - 就是市場每天在關注的加息還是降息 但今時今日的全球央行,早就被艱困的環境逼著,演化出了新的玩法: 從美聯儲常用的 「出口術 (aka 我吹水你來嘴)」 ,到日本上周施展出的 「暗示的力量」 ,央行對於市場干預的花招可說是每天在推陳出新,令人讚嘆! 潛藏在日本政府債券背後的風暴 一直以來,日本政府債券的波動性其實都相當低,因為有超過一半的日本政府債券,都是由 大買家「日本央行」 持有。日本央行藉由買債,來支持日本政府的各項花費,希望能夠把日本從 「失落的三十年」 解救出來。 隨著日本終於慢慢走出通縮困境,日本央行也沒有理由繼續大手買債啦。於是日本央行從去年開始 慢慢削減買債的規模 ,但問題來了 - 找不到接盤俠來頂上呀! 時機不巧,又碰上特朗普大手亂揮關稅,於是 從今年四月初開始 ,日本政府債券(尤其是長天期的債券)就亂了套了,債券價格大幅 下跌 ,推動債券收益率大幅 飆升 。 5月20日 ,日本政府標售20年期的債券,更是創下超過 10年以來最低 的認購量,市場用腳投票,把20年期債券的收益率推上新高。 怎麼辦呢? 聰明的日本政府想到了一個「特別」的辦法! 「暗示」的力量! 日本政府並沒有積極地主動干預市場,而是讓 財務省 向 市場參與者(例如交易商和債券買家) 發了一份 問卷 ! 溫柔又直接地詢問大家, 那不然你們覺得「超長期債券的合理發行規模」應該是多少呢? 結果呢? 簡簡單單一張被風吹就會掉的問卷,竟然引發了 連鎖的揣測效應 ,市場認為日本政府有可能會 減少 長期債券的發行,以 調整供給與需求的平衡 。 就這樣,日本政府債券收益率就乖乖地掉頭回落了! 這簡直是值得被寫進教科書的創意! 只是...估計古往今來,也沒哪個教科書的作者,敢教你 用一份問卷 ,來挽救 一場債市危機 。 不過這份問券的 威力可以持續多久 ,還是政府的 紙老虎很快就會被市場戳破 ? 先別急著把教科書拿去出版,讓我們繼續看下去吧! 🧐📜 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種,「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立,為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務,提供較為標準化的產品,與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢,在服務層面上,根據每位客人的不同需求,提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務;在執行層面上,為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序,利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台,可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- Vol 27 – Do You Hear the Retail Sing?
May 31, 2025 🎉 Breaking News! We’ve Gone Audio! 🎙️ That’s right - we’ve officially launched our FIRST podcast! It's in Mandarin , but fear not, we’re working on other languages soon! Someone asked me, "Why did you do this?" Honestly, I just did it "for fun!" 🤩 After all, it’s never too late to pick up a new skill ! 📢 Join the conversation - Follow us on Spotify , Facebook & Instagram for more insights and maybe even a few surprises! ✨ What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ Retail vs. Professional: Who’s on the Chopping Block? Data showed that, while professional fund managers were busy scratching their heads, retail investors orchestrated a jaw-dropping V-shaped rebound for the S&P 500 in April! Do you hear the people sing? "UNITED, WE PROFIT!" 🎤 2️⃣ Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Trades? With all the chaos Trump is whipping up, one thing seems certain: de-dollarization! However, trying to profit from a long-term trend with short-term trades is nothing short of playing with fire! 🔥 3️⃣ The Power of Subtle Hints - How Did Japan’s Long-Term Bond Yields Drop? Japan’s long-term bond yields took a sharp dive for a while, catching many by surprise. Yet, there was no grand policy overhaul - just a clever and subtle "hint" by the government was all it took to tilt the market, for now. 🎩 Category Contents for this week 1) Chart of the Week Do You Hear the Retail Sing? 2) Market Buzz Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Trades 2) Fun Facts The Power of Subtle Hints - The Japanese Style Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings Jun 3 (Tue) - Nio (NIO) US - Earnings Jun 3 (Tue) - CrowdStrike (CRWD) Jun 5 (Thu) - Broadcom (AVGO) US - Eco Data Jun 2 (Mon) - US May Manufacturing PMI Jun 5 (Thu) - US April Trade Balance Jun 6 (Fri) - US May Non-Farm Payroll, Unemployment Rate Other Major Events Jun 4 (Wed) - Bank of Canada Rate Decision Jun 5 (Thu) - ECB Rates Meeting Chart of the Week – Do You Hear the Retail Sing? 🥁🥁🥁 Do you hear the retail sing? Singing a song of happy men? It is the music of a people Who will not be chives again 🎵🎵🎵 The above chart told an intriguing story - retail investor purchases (the red bars) rose significantly just as the S&P 500 index (the yellow line) took a plunge in early April. Meanwhile, the so-called “smart money” - professional institutional investors and fund managers - has been trimming exposure amid tariff-driven volatility. "(The professionals) are the ones who actually have to catch up right now,” noted a strategist from RBC. How did the retail win this time? 1️⃣ Knowledge is Power - Thanks to the financial knowledge that is spreading faster than ever, "buy-the-dip" and "stay invested" have become part of the retail investing culture. 2️⃣ Holding Power is Everything - Retail investors aren’t pressured to perform monthly (or even daily!) like fund managers, giving them the patience to ride out market swings. Retail have won Round One in the tariff showdown, but what's coming next might be even trickier. Will retail keep its winning streak, or will the pros have the last laugh? The game is far from over! One thing's for sure - there is a new dynamic about to start when tomorrow comes! For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Market Buzz – Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Trades Source: Is the US Dollar losing its Dominance? (De- Dollarization) - London School of Business De-Dollarization: The global money shuffle This week, I attended the China Global Wealth Summit hosted by Asian Private Banker. One comment from a CICC speaker stuck with me: 📢 Everyone agrees De-Dollarization is happening as Trump's policies shake global confidence in the U.S. financial system. 💡 But if you try to trade on it too soon, you might regret it. Fund managers who jump ship on U.S. assets too fast could be taking on the biggest risk, especially when they’re constantly measured against broad market performance (think about the tough retail competitors!). What happens when USD loses its throne? To gradually position for a fading USD dominance, investors are scrambling for alternatives: 🏆 Gold & Bitcoin: The classic "store-of-value" picks, for those who trust gold’s shine or Bitcoin's scarcity. 🌍 Global Diversification: Some investors are turning to Europe, China, India, or LatAm. 💰 Strong Companies: Some prefer sticking with solid businesses, betting they’ll rebound as soon as macro worries fade. 🎭 Geopolitical Maneuvers: Some brave souls are keeping positions flexible and navigating global tensions to scoop up undervalued assets. The Golden Rule? Mind the cost level of your holdings! ✅ Don’t chase hype ✅ Don’t panic-sell . The best way to avoid knee-jerk reactions is to know your investments inside and out. When market gets rough, confidence will help you stay the course. Is this easier said than done? Of course! And that’s why Jadewell Family Office is here - to be the rational voice for you when emotions run high. 💬 Talk to us today and let us help you stay focused in a chaotic market! 🚀 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Facts – The Power of Subtle Hints - The Japanese Style Textbooks tell us that central banks rely on three classic tools to influence the market: Open market operations Reserve requirements Policy rates But in today's world, central banks have gone beyond the textbook - from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “talking the future (aka blowing water)” strategy to Japan’s latest "subtle hints". The Hidden Risks Japan’s government bonds are famous for their low volatility - mainly because the Bank of Japan (BOJ) owns more than half of them in a long-standing effort to support government spending and drag the country out of the “Lost Decades.” However, with Japan finally exiting deflation , fiscal expansion is no longer the priority. BOJ has been trimming its debt purchases , but here’s the problem: no one else is stepping in to fill the gap . Cue the drama - on May 20 , a sale of 20-year Japanese government bonds went down in flames , marking the weakest demand in over a decade and sent the bond yield surging . Confidence in long-term debt was already shaky, thanks to Trump’s tariff bombshell since early-April, but Japan’s bond market took the hit hardest among major markets. The Power of Subtle Hints! So, what did Japan do? Something unexpected! Instead of an aggressive intervention, the Ministry of Finance pulled off a “soft power” maneuver - sending out a questionnaire to market participants (primary dealers, bond buyers) asking what they thought would be a "reasonable issuance amount" for super-long bonds . The result? A simple questionnaire triggered speculation that Japan might reduce the issuance of long-maturity debt to balance supply and demand - and the yield dropped. Now that’s textbook creativity - except, well, no textbook ever suggested sending out a questionnaire to fix a bond market crisis. 🧐📜 Will this "subtle magic" trick keep the spell alive, or is it just a temporary illusion? 🎩✨ For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- Vol 26 – An "Impactful" Week!
Source: https://www.sfiimpactsummit.com/gallery May 25, 2025 When I decided to launch a multi-family office , I thought my private bank experience had prepared me well. Nope! The more I know, the more I realize I don’t know! "Impact Investing" is a prime example. To be fair, it's still a new concept - or rather, the idea itself isn't new, but a structured implementation is. Thankfully, I had the chance to level up at two phenomenal events this week: 🚀 Impact Summit 🎓 Investing for Impact Masterclass Fresh ideas that reshaped my thinking - and I loved every second of it! The best part? I made some fantastic connections! We’re exploring ideas to bridge local startups with families looking to create impact , while engaging seasoned Silicon Valley investors who bring actual experience. Big things are brewing - stay tuned! 🔥 What’s in the newsletter this week? 1️⃣ Wealth Holders = Change Makers? More and more clients - or "wealth holders" - would like to create meaningful impact , but in a more sustainable way than simply giving out cash. How are other families embracing this trend? What challenges stand in their way? 2️⃣ Who can rescue US Treasury? Investor confidence in US Treasury is faltering. Ironically, could cryptocurrencies be US Treasury's unexpected lifeline? Category Contents for this week 1) Events of the Week Wealth Holders = Change Makers? 2) Fun Facts Can Crypto Save the US Treasury? Key things to watch for the upcoming week: China/HK - Earnings May 26 (Mon) - Meituan (3690 HK) May 27 (Tue) - Xiaomi (1810 HK), Link REIT (0823 HK), PDD (PDD) May 29 (Thu) - Li Auto (2015 HK) US - Earnings May 28 (Wed) - Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM) May 29 (Thu) - Dell (DELL), Marvell (MRVL) May 30 (Fri) - Costco (COST) US - Eco Data May 26 (Mon) - US Holiday (Memorial Day) May 29 (Thu) - FOMC Meeting Minutes, US 1Q GDP May 30 (Fri) - US April Core PCE Other Major Events May 28 (Wed) - Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rates Decision Events of the Week – Wealth Holders = Change Makers? When we talk about sustainable investments , the first reaction is usually, "Oh, you mean ESG?" ESG was once the ultimate buzzword , but its shine has faded amid growing concerns over " greenwashing" . Today, investors are seeking clearly defined ways to make the world a better place, and Impact Investing has been gaining traction. Source: https://www.investmentmagazine.com.au/2025/04/major-asset-owner-eyes-multi-billion-dollar-commitment-to-impact-investing/ What is Impact Investing? Impact investing is a strategy that blends "traditional return-driven investing" with "philanthropy that align with your values". As one fund manager put it - traditional Venture Capital aims to triple investor's money, while Impact Funds may see only half of that return. But what they lack in pure profit, they make up for in long-term value - actively linking startups with corporations that can integrate innovations into real business operations . A research paper on Asian families also uncovered that Impact Investing is a powerful tool to keep the family together . Source: Who Cares | Home For Good How Are Other Families Approaching This? A Thai family shared the best part of doing Impact Investing within a family office setting: “No one judges how we use our money. Well, maybe you do… but who cares?” 😆 Their journey started with grant money , aka money that's expected to lose 100% anyways. They tested every different vehicle, learning what works (and what doesn’t). Their biggest revelation? Investors always ask, “Can this company scale?” But the real question should be, “What IS scale?” 💡 Scale isn’t just financial growth - it’s progress 🌊 Cleaner beaches? That’s progress. 💰 Fair wages in developing nations? Progress. 🏢 Companies standing on their own, beyond donations? That’s real progress Community Another recurring theme was Community. 💛 These families are wealthy enough to invest solo , yet they choose to move together . Why? 1️⃣ Shared due diligence & networks , to leverage each other's strength with accountability. 2️⃣ It’s not about being the first in - as long as you "catalyze" the next investor, you’ve made an impact! After all, wealth carries the power to shape the future - a privilege that shouldn’t go to waste. Source: Grandma telling kids a story | Wordworks What Challenges Stand in Their Way? Many participants admitted that Impact Investing isn’t the easiest topic to discuss within the family because: 1️⃣ Generational divide – Older generations struggle to see the difference between pure donation and impact investing . 2️⃣ Doesn’t fit the mold – Impact investing doesn’t always align with a family office’s traditional mandate . 3️⃣ Regulatory hurdles – Taxation and reporting rules remain complex and unclear. Advise from CSP SG, an organization studying Asian families explained that each generation sees the world differently , shaped by their unique wounds and past. Allowing more inter-generational storytelling is key to bridging the gap. And sometimes, having external parties as mediators can help smooth things out too - that's a cue for us! 💡 Reach out to Jadewell Family Office today for more sharing! 🚀 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. Fun Facts – Can Crypto Save the US Treasury? Moody’s downgrade on US Treasury and Trump’s new tax bill have shaken investor confidence. Warning signs are clear: 🚨 Weak demand at the 20-year Treasury auction 🚨 30-year Treasury yield jumping past 5% from 4.77% at the beginning of the year. That means 30-year US treasury bond price has dropped by 4-5 dollars so far this year. But could stablecoins , a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to an external asset (e.g. USD) , help breathe new life? Source: Binance lists USD1 stablecoin with trading restrictions in EU and US The GENIUS Act In the near future, US Senate will vote on an act called GENIUS (The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins). The purpose is to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins, a $200 billion market , by forcing issuers to maintain a 1-to-1 reserve of liquid assets - which include USD cash, current deposits, and US Treasuries ! Will This Be Enough? While some see this as an opportunity, others question if it's enough to offset waning demand for from other investors. The bond market remains very tricky - even for experts . With long-dated Treasuries and bonds facing extreme volatility , navigating this climate requires a careful strategy . 💡 If you're holding these positions and want a fresh perspective, reach out to Jadewell Family Office for tailored advice! 🔍📊 About Jadewell Family Office Jadewell is committed to offering proactive, customized services akin to a “single-family office,” yet within the ease of a “multi-family office” environment. Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
- 第二十六篇 - 充滿「影響力」的一周!
Source: https://www.sfiimpactsummit.com/gallery 2025年5月25日 記得我當初決定創業做 家族辦公室 的時候,以為憑藉我在私人銀行的多年經驗,應該算是做足了準備。 才怪! 真正開始以後才發現,學得愈多才愈發現自己的不足。 【影響力投資 Impact Investing】 就是一個顯著的例子。雖然這在亞洲還是一個比較新的概念 - 或著更準確地說, 概念 本身不新,但 系統化的執行 才剛萌芽。 好在這周我參加了兩場精彩的活動,成功升級知識水平並刷新觀點 - 每一秒都讓人熱血沸騰 ! 🚀 Impact Summit (影響力高峰會) 🎓 Investing for Impact Masterclass (影響力投資大師班) 最棒的是? 社恐如我,在天意安排下,結識了 一群身懷絕技的夥伴 ! 我們正在探索如何把「 有潛力的本地新創」 ,連結至 「希望創造影響力的本地家族」 ,加上 「資深的矽谷創投基金」 從旁實戰指導並提供資源,打造一個完整且開放的生態圈。 🚀 大事即將引爆,敬請期待! 🔥 本周周報寫什麼呢? 1️⃣ 擁有財富的人 = 推動改變的人? 越來越多的 「財富擁有者 (Wealth Holders)」 ,希望對社會做出正面的影響。但比起單純的慈善捐助,他們更想透過 可持續的方式 來實現價值。其他家族如何擁抱這個趨勢? 又面臨哪些挑戰呢? 2️⃣ 誰能拯救美國國債? 投資者對美國國債的信心正在動搖。但竟然有人認為, 「加密貨幣」 有可能成為美國國債的 救命稻草 ? 目錄 本周內容 1) 每周兩活動 擁有財富的人 = 推動改變的人? 2) 您知道嗎? 加密貨幣有望拯救美國國債? 未來一周值得留意的大事有: 中國/香港 - 業績 5月26日(周一) - 美團 (3690 HK) 5月27日(周二) - 小米 (1810 HK), 領展 (0823 HK), 拼多多 (PDD) 5月29日(周四) - 理想汽車 (2015 HK) 美國 - 業績 5月28日(周三) - Nvidia (NVDA), Salesforce (CRM) 5月29日(周四) - Dell (DELL), Marvell (MRVL) 5月30日(周五) - Costco (COST) 美國 - 經濟數據 5月26日(周一) - 美國假期(陣亡將士紀念日) 5月29日(周四) - 美國聯儲局會議紀要,美國第一季GDP 5月30日(周五) - 美國四月份核心PCE物價指數 每周兩活動 – 擁有財富的人 = 推動改變的人? 每當說起 可持續投資 (sustainable investments) , 大部分人的第一反應仍然是: 「你是指ESG?」 的確,ESG這個詞在過去幾年把大家洗腦的很徹底😅,但是在大量「 綠色洗白(Greenwashing)」 的爭議下,ESG的光環已漸漸黯淡。 如今,投資者希望找到 運作更透明、定義更清晰 的方式來為世界做出改變 - 一個新名詞 【 影響力投資 (Impact Investing)】 正迅速崛起。 Source: https://www.investmentmagazine.com.au/2025/04/major-asset-owner-eyes-multi-billion-dollar-commitment-to-impact-investing/ 什麼是影響力投資(Impact Investing)? 一直以來,亞洲家族的財富,大多只分成 兩個口袋 - 一個是拿來 賺錢 的,一個是拿來 捐錢 的。 影響力投資指的是一種 策略 ,在上述的兩個口袋中間, 創造一個新的口袋 - 在賺取回報的同時,也能對社會做出貢獻。 別以為回報不重要 ,當一個有意義的投資可以創造回報的時候,才能 吸引更多人 一起加入壯大。當一個新創可以 自給自足 ,不需要每天等著別人捐獻才能開門營業的時候,才能 更長遠的為社會做出改變。 正如我的新朋友,一位 影響力基金 經理人所說, 傳統創投(VC) 的目標是幫你賺三倍的回報,影響力基金的回報可能只有傳統創投的一半,但所帶來的 長期價值 遠遠超出了帳面上的回報數字。 怎麼說呢? 他們基金背後的投資者主要是 大型企業 ,藉由投資這些新創,可以把有用的新發明,運用在大企業的 日常運營 上,減廢增效,甚至 創造新的商業機會 。對他們來說,這可比單一基金的財務回報實際多啦。 而對於亞洲家族來說,研究顯示,影響力投資還扮演著 維繫家族凝聚力 的重要角色。當家族裡的不同世代都為了同一目標努力, 彼此的關聯也將更緊密 。 Source: Who Cares | Home For Good 其他家族正如何擁抱這個趨勢? 一個泰國家族分享了以 「家族」 身分推動影響力投資的經驗,她說,最棒的就是: 「 沒人會評判我們怎麼用錢。也許你會…... 但誰理你呢?」 😆 還記得上面說過,亞洲家族通常都有一個口袋是拿來捐錢的嗎? 這個泰國家族就是從這個口袋開始,來嘗試影響力投資, 「反正這本來就是打算捐掉的錢,輸光了也沒所謂。」 而他們最大的領悟就是,投資者總是問: 「這家公司能擴展規模(scale)嗎?」 但真正的問題應該是: 「到底什麼是規模?」 🔹 規模不只是財務增長(growth),而是進步 (progress) 🌊 更乾淨的海灘? 進步! 💰 可以在第三世界國家發放公平的薪資? 進步! 🏢 創造影響力的企業能獨立運營,而不再依賴捐款? 真正的進步! 抱團的力量 - 社群 (Community) 另一個在討論中不斷浮現的詞是 社群 💛 依這些家族的財力,他們完全有能力自己投資項目,但他們還是 偏好抱團攜手前進 。為什麼呢? 1️⃣ 共享盡職調查(Due Diligence)與人脈(networks) ,發揮彼此優勢。 2️⃣ 不必爭先 ,先來後到不是重點,在每一個環節,只要能 「催化(catalyze)」 下一位投資者,影響就已經產生啦! (怎麼聽起來有點像傳銷 😝) 會上有一句話說得很好 - 財富承載著塑造未來的力量( wealth carries the power to shape the future) - 擁有這份力量的您,又打算如何使用呢? Source: Grandma telling kids a story | Wordworks 面臨的挑戰 許多年輕的參與者都承認,「影響力投資」在家族內部,並不是一個容易討論的議題。原因包括: 1️⃣ 世代差異 - 年長的家族成員,不了解「影響力投資」與「純粹捐款」的分別 2️⃣ 不符合傳統模式 - 這類新型投資,常常無法融入大型家族辦公室既有的投資框架 3️⃣ 監管障礙 - 監管基建還沒跟上,對於這類投資的稅務與會計要求比較混亂 第二點 和 第三點 需要時間慢慢解決,但如何處理 第一點 ,一間專注研究亞洲家族的機構,倒是有幾個中肯的建議。 他們認為, 每一代人都有自己的過去與傷痛,也因此形成了不同的觀點。 年輕的一代得了解,我們成長在沒有戰亂的安逸年代,才有餘裕改變對人生優先次序(priority)的追求。而要縮小世代間的思想差距,最好的方法,就是以 說故事的方式 ,了解不同觀點背後的成因。 或者有時候也可以考慮讓 外部專業人士 加入討論,可以起到一定的調節作用 - 這就是在叫我出場啦! 💡 有興趣知道更多? 今天就聯絡瑜新家族辦公室吧! 🚀 For your reference only. Not investment/product recommendations. 您知道嗎? – 加密貨幣有望拯救美國國債? 上周評級機構穆迪下調了美國國債評級 ,再加上 特朗普大花筒般的新稅改法案 ,讓市場對於美國國債失去信心。 危機信號: 🚨 20年期美國國債 拍賣需求疲軟 🚨 30年期美國國債收益率 ,由年初的4.77%,攀升到超過5%。也就是說,如果您年初持有30年期的美國國債,至今債券價格已經跌了4-5塊錢啦! 美國國債最近真的沒什麼好消息,真要說的話,只有一項旨在推動 穩定幣(Stablecoins)監管發展 的法案 。 穩定幣是一種加密貨幣,藉由與 外部資產(例如美元) 掛勾,來達到價格的穩定。 為什麼說他可能是美國國債的救命稻草呢? Source: Binance lists USD1 stablecoin with trading restrictions in EU and US GENIUS 法案 美國參議院即將投票表決 GENIUS法案 ( Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins ) ,打算為 高達2000億美元的穩定幣市場 建立 監管框架 。 📌 法案重點: ✅ 穩定幣發行方必須維持 1:1 的儲備 ,以確保流動性 ✅ 儲備資產 包含美元現金、活期存款、及 美國國債 這足夠嗎? 有人認為 穩定幣儲備 所帶來的需求,可以 部份抵銷 美國國債的賣壓。是不是真的呢? 暫時也說不清。 唯一確定的是,債券市場今年的波動,連 專業的基金經理人 都被殺個措手不及。 💡 如果您持有這類債券資產,想找人聊聊、尋找新視角,歡迎隨時聯繫瑜新家族辦公室喔! 🔍 瑜新家族辦公室 家族辦公室一般可分為兩種,「單一家族辦公室」是由單一家族直接設立,為該家族提供全面的財富管理服務。而「聯合家族辦公室」則同時為多個家族服務,提供較為標準化的產品,與私人銀行相似。 瑜新結合兩者的優勢,在服務層面上,根據每位客人的不同需求,提供量身打造的財富管理顧問服務;在執行層面上,為您省卻了設立單一家族辦公室所需的繁瑣行政程序,利用瑜新的聯合家族辦公室平台,可以更有效率地達成您的目標。 Ann Yu Co-Founder and CEO Jadewell Family Office FOR INSTITUTIONAL & PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY – NOT INTENDED FOR RETAIL CUSTOMER USETHESE ARE NOT STOCK OR PRODUCT RECOMMENDATIONS This document is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be considered as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature, or any other purpose in any jurisdiction. It is educational and does not represent a commitment from Jadewell Family Office to participate in any mentioned transactions. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical, and for illustration purposes only. This material is insufficient to support an investment decision and should not be relied upon to evaluate the merits of investing in securities or products. Users should independently assess the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications, and work with their own financial professional to determine if any mentioned investment is appropriate for their personal goals. Investors should ensure they have all relevant information before making any decisions. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, or investment techniques and strategies provided are for informational purposes only. They are based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.